The Best Possible Championship Sunday

In my divisional round post last week, I provided a statistic that the underdogs covered against the spread in 14 out of the last 15 playoff games. Out of the four games last weekend, the New Orleans Saints were the only home favorite not to cover. This is fairly typical in the divisional round, where home teams are 21-7 straight up since 2011. 

I would say as football fans we benefited from the results of last week following this pattern, providing the best matchups the league could have asked for on Championship Sunday. Whichever teams come out on top, it’s not going to be a boring Super Bowl. Let’s just hope these games can live up to the hype.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Los Angeles Rams

The makeup of these teams is very similar: offensive minded coaches with multiple playmakers that can put points on the board. Rams quarterback Jared Goff didn’t have a strong game stat wise against the Dallas Cowboys last week, but it didn’t matter. Running backs Toddy Gurley and C.J. Anderson (really?) torched the Cowboys defense for a combined 238 yards and 3 touchdowns. Can they repeat this performance against the Saints defense that was second in stopping the run during the regular season? Indoors on turf will certainly help. However, the Superdome is where the Saints thrive, where head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees are 6-0 in home playoff games. Including last week’s game against Philly, Brees has been near perfect at home, throwing 23 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Away from Los Angeles, Goff has 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. If the Rams have to keep on relying on the run game, the Saints have a slight edge on the defensive side of the ball. In what has all the makings of a shootout, give me Brees and the best wideout in the game Michael Thomas. Look for the Saints to move on to Atlanta.

Saints 38, Rams 34

New England Patriots (+3) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last week I thought that the Indianapolis Colts were going to upset the Kansas City Chiefs. I factored the Colts recent record (10 wins in their last 11 games) and thought quarterback Andrew Luck and Indy’s offensive line could exploit Kansas City’s defense. What I didn’t take into account was a dome team playing in cold weather on the road, and that during their hot streak Indy defeated quarterbacks Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott and Eli Manning. Not exactly Murderer’s Row. Meanwhile Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes showed no signs of nerves in his first playoff game. The Patriots silenced all of the haters by easily dismantling the L.A. Chargers, with the offense looking like typical Pats football. The problem this week is quarterback Tom Brady and company won’t be in the friendly confines of Foxboro. The Pats were 3-5 on the road this season, and in those five losses their defense allowed opposing running backs (Jaylen Samuels, Brandon Bolden, and Kerryon Johnson, just to name a few) to torch them for 111.6 yards per game. Not a good sign for a team that hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2006 going against the number one offense in the league. But Brady’s “everyone thinks we suck” comment after the game proves he still plays with a chip on his shoulder. Do I really want to pick against the G.O.A.T. when he’s an underdog? Plus in the coaching matchup, I’ll take Bill Belichick over Andy Reid, who is 1-4 in Conference Championship games. If the Pats can continue to keep the ground game clicking and control the clock, which they just showed they can do against a better Charger defense, they can pull off the road upset. Look for the ball in Brady’s hands with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, leading the Pats to a matchup against Drew Brees in the Super Bowl.

Now who wouldn’t want to see that?

Patriots 31, Chiefs 28

Breaking Down Division Weekend (With a Little History)

Here’s a few things that have significant anniversaries/birthdays this month:

Fifty years ago a little English rock band released their premiere album in the United States. You might have heard of them. The album Led Zeppelin made its debut to the world on January 12^th, 1969. Upon its initial release, Rolling Stone magazine labeled Jimmy Page “an extraordinarily proficient blues guitarist” in their review of the album. They then went on to say:

“Unfortunately, he is also a very limited producer and a writer of weak, unimaginative songs, and the Zeppelin album suffers from his having both produced it and written most of it”

They certainly missed the mark on that one.

Fans of fossil rock know Jimmy Page went on to write some of the most notable guitar riffs in rock history, starting with the album’s opening track, “Good Times Bad Times.” The album itself is a classic staple, incorporating a hard rock and blues sound that would define the band over the next decade. Not to mention introducing a genre that would influence countless bands since.

Jimmy Page also happened to turn 75 on January 9^th.

  

Happy 45^th to the sitcom Happy Days, which premiered on ABC on January 15^th, 1974 and ran for eleven seasons. Not only was the show immensely popular and gave us one of the coolest television characters of all time in Arthur “The Fonz” Fonzarelli, it made Ron Howard a household name and helped launch his directing career, spawned spinoffs Laverne & Shirley (RIP Penny Marshall), Mork & Mindy, and even Joanie Loves Chachi, created the phrase “jump the shark,” and gave us the setting for Weezer’s “Buddy Holly” video. Not too bad.

On January 9^th, 1984, Van Halen released their sixth studio album, remarkably titled 1984. Now fans might argue that it’s not their best record, but at the time it certainly became their most successful, introducing synth pop riffs to Eddie Van Halen’s signature guitar. During the early days of MTV, cheesy videos from this album were on a consistent rotation that they were burned into my young memory forever. For those who might have missed the boat:

Not only was 1984 a defining album of the 80s, it marked the end of David Lee Roth as lead singer of the band, paving the way for the Van Hagar era. If you’re not a Van Halen fan, trust me when I say it was all downhill from there.

The Sopranos made its debut on HBO on January 10^th, 1999. As part of its 20^th anniversary, HBO2 has been airing a marathon that wrapped this past Thursday. For anyone who watched the show in its heyday that might have casually tuned in to an episode and ended up binging a whole season will be reminded of why it still holds up as the best television drama of all time.

HBO

I mentioned in a previous post, and it’s been said countless times before, that The Sopranos was the first show to give us an antihero in Tony Soprano that viewers could not wait to tune in to see every Sunday, rooting for him even though we knew he was a ruthless mob boss. Without The Sopranos, there might have never been Walter White, Dexter Morgan, Don Draper or Ray Donovan. If you’ve never seen an episode, do yourself a favor and carve out some time over the next couple of winter months and check it out. You’ll be happy that you did.

And finally for you hardcore history buffs, Thomas Paine's Common Sense was first published on January 10th, 1776, advocating for the American colonies to seek independence from Great Britain. It was essentially the nations first best seller, influencing the signers of the Declaration of Independence and the founders of this great nation.

Before I dive into this weekend’s matchups, it should be noted that, according to OddShark, over the last 15 playoff games going into last season, the underdogs are 14-1 against the spread. Pretty crazy, right?

Will that trend continue this weekend? I guess you’ll have to force yourself to watch some football over the next couple of days to find out.

Indianapolis Colts (+5,5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last week against the Texans the Colts started like gangbusters, but failed to score in the second half after opening up a 21-0 lead in the second quarter. They're going to have to put up more points against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the top offense in the league if they're going to win this game. And they should be able to. Where the Chiefs strengths lie on the offensive side of the ball, the defense is a different story, finishing second to last during the regular season. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck should be able to exploit this weakness behind his strong offensive line. The Chiefs also seemed to have lost a little of their edge after releasing running back Kareem Hunt before Week 13, losing two out of their last three. Mahomes will be under a microscope after tossing over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns this season. Will the second-year quarterback succumb to the pressure as his young contemporaries Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky did last week? If he plays with the same poise as he did during the regular season, he should be fine. However the Colts are hot, winners of 10 of their last 11. Their defense won't be able to completely contain Mahomes, but should be able to keep it close, especially if the weather plays its part. There's also the Andy Reid factor, who is 1-4 as the Chiefs head coach in the post-season. Look for Luck and the Colts to pull off the upset. 

Colts 34, Chiefs 31

Dallas Cowboys (+7) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Has anyone noticed the recent play of Rams quarterback Jared Goff? He finished the season by throwing four touchdowns against the lowly 49ers, but in the four games leading up to Week 17 he had only two touchdowns and six interceptions, which included back to back losses to Chicago on the road and Philly at home. Losing safety blanket Cooper Kupp for the season after Week 10 certainly did not help. The Rams still have running back Todd Gurley, who might struggle against the Cowboy’s defense, which excels at stopping the run. The same can’t be said for the Rams defense, which allowed 122.3 yards per game on the ground during the regular season. That should bode well for running back Ezekiel Elliot, who torched the Seahawks for 137 yards last week. The Dallas defense and their ability to control the clock should keep it close, but Rams coach Sean McVay has been anointed the new offensive genius of the NFL, so much so that newly hired coaches are being referred to as his friend in their team’s press releases. Seriously. Let’s see if McVay can live up to the hype and win his first playoff game, where there’s sure to be an abundance of Cowboys fans making plenty of noise in the Coliseum.

Rams 27, Cowboys 24

Los Angeles Chargers (+4) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Last week I made a point that the Dallas Cowboys benefited in a mediocre conference. If there’s a worse conference than the NFC East, it’s the AFC East. The Patriots beat up the weak competition and were darlings of their division again, winning their eleventh straight division title. They did have early season wins against playoff teams Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Chicago. They also suffered road losses to Jacksonville, Detroit and to Miami on a fluke lateral play to end the game that ultimately cost them the number one seed. Not typical New England Patriot football. Many in the national media believe these are signs that the Patriots dynasty is coming to a close, and it very well could be. Tight end Rob Gronkowski looks like all of his injuries are catching up with him, quarterback Tom Brady has shown signs of trepidation from pressure in the pocket, and reliable wide receiver Julian Edelman led the league in dropped passes this season. Not a good sign for this tough matchup for the Pats. Chargers defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are as good as they come, and the Los Angeles defense as a whole registered seven sacks against a putrid Ravens offense last week. Will L.A. be hindered from a physical game in Baltimore to fly across country again to play in below freezing temperatures? Perhaps. But the Chargers haven’t been bothered from where they’ve had to play this year, going 8-1 on the road with last week’s win. They have yet, however, to play in Foxboro, where the Pats were undefeated this season. Brady and coach Bill Belichick haven’t lost a playoff game in Foxboro since 2012, winners of 9 straight post-season games at home. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers against the Patriots in his career? 1-7, including 0-4 in Foxboro. This game could define Rivers’ legacy, and everyone outside of New England will be rooting for him. It’s unfortunate the national audience is going to be let down. The Patriots win a close one with the home field edge.

Patriots 24, Chargers 21

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-8) over Philadelphia Eagles

Did the Eagles win their wild-card game last week, or did the Chicago Bears give it away? If Cody Parkey’s kick bounces in the opposite direction, then Foles magic comes to a tragic end. Granted the Eagles came back on the road against a tough defense, but they were also going against Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who didn’t rise to the pressure of his first playoff game. Containing Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the rest of the New Orleans offense is going to be a different story, especially in the Superdome. Not including their throwaway game in Week 17, the Saints average 37 points a game at home. Is Philly going to be able to keep up? Not to mention Saints head coach Sean Peyton’s little motivation tactic from earlier this week.

A little unorthodox, but highly effective. We’ll soon see if it drives the Saints to a Super Bowl title.

Saints 30, Eagles 17

(Finally) A Competitive Wild Card Weekend

As we turn the calendars from 2018, it’s hard to believe that we will soon be closing the door on another decade in another twelve short months. Over the course of 2019, be prepared for “Best of” lists from most publications covering every aspect of pop culture (some will probably be created in this blog). As for the NFL, if any player or coach can maintain a job in the league for over ten years, they should consider themselves lucky.

Currently Bill Belichick, Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, and John Harbaugh are four head coaches that were hired in their existing positions before 2010 (so long, Marvin Lewis). When you win a Super Bowl, it tends to add to your shelf life as a head coach. Out of this short list, only Tomlin failed to lead his team to post-season this year. Instead, these successful veterans will face off against first-timers Matt Nagy, Frank Reich, and Anthony Lynn as well as some familiar faces in Jason Garrett, Bill O’Brien, Andy Reid and Pete Carroll.

For players, it’s a lot tougher to stay healthy and on the field, which can contribute to the average NFL career being only 3.3 years. The league, however, has implemented multiple rules to protect quarterbacks going back to 1995, leading many pass-throwers to avoid major injuries and to now thrive at the position.

Of the quarterbacks playing this post-season, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers began their careers before 2010, while Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Nick Foles were all drafted in 2012. Only Rivers and Luck have not won a Super Bowl, but both have played in a conference championship game. To add to the excitement this January, new playmakers Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and (I guess) Mitch Trubisky will be making their first playoff starts.

What does any of this mean? When it comes to the playoffs, experience certainly plays a factor. However, last season we did witness Philly head coach Doug Pederson, in his first trip to the post-season, guide the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory by out coaching the more experienced Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. After a regular season that was filled with inconsistent play week after week, this year’s playoffs are completely up for grabs. At least this weekend we don't have the quarterback play of Connor Cook, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Lindley to look forward to.

Before breaking down this weekend’s games, here’s one more quick quarterback stat:

What do Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Stafford and Derek Carr all have in common?

They are currently the top six highest paid quarterbacks in the league. And they will all be watching the playoffs from home.

Your 2018 NFL, everyone.

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Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

If there’s one thing I know that I can count on, it’s that the Houston Texans and/or the Cincinnati Bengals are going play on Wild Card Saturday. It’s like death and taxes. After a slow start (0-3), the Texans pulled off nine in a row, with victories against powerhouses Buffalo, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, Washington, and even a win in Indy in Week 4. The Colts were similar, finishing the season 9-1 after starting 1-5, including winning their last four that began with a victory in Houston in Week 14. Houston's quarterback Deshaun Watson won a National Championship at Clemson, so he knows how to handle the pressure of playing big games. His coach Bill O’Brien, on the other hand, is 1-2 in the playoffs. To O'Brien's credit, his quarterbacks in the post-season were the aforementioned Hoyer and Brock Osweiler, but the record still doesn't look good. Andrew Luck, after a great comeback season, is making his first playoff appearance since 2014, and has a little more success in the post-season (3-3) than O’Brien coached teams. The key to this game will be Indy’s strong offensive line. If they can protect Luck against J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the Houston pass rush, then the Colts move on. Look for a repeat of Week 14 in this rubber match.

Indy 27, Houston 24

Seattle Seahawks (+2) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The last time these two teams squared off on a Saturday night, this happened:

The image still haunts Cowboys fans, who have only won two playoff games since. As for this season, Dallas took advantage of playing in the mediocre NFC East, going 5-1 in the division. Their defense turned out to be pretty good, finishing seventh in the league. The Amari Cooper trade after Week 7, as illogical as it seemed at the time, revitalized the offense. Seattle closed out the season as the league’s best rushing team (160.00 yards per game) as well as winning six of their last seven. During that span, quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Cowboys only have one loss at home, but I’m siding with the playoff experience of Wilson (8-4) and head coach Pete Carroll (10-7) over Dallas QB Dak Prescott (0-1) and coach Jason Garrett (1-2). The Seahawks win a close one.

Seattle 21, Dallas 17

San Diego Chargers (+2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens have a formula for playoff success: their fearless, play strong defense, and can run the ball down your throat. All eyes will be on dynamic rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson, who took over for the injured Joe Flacco in Week 10 and has not looked back, going 6-1 as a starter to finish the season. The Chargers should have taken notes in the loss they received from Baltimore at home not that long ago in Week 16, especially on how to contain Jackson. It’s been a few years, so people might forget that Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has nine playoff games (4-5) under his belt. Jackson, on the other hand, has recent history working against him. Since 2010, rookie quarterbacks are 2-7 in the playoffs, and the two winners (TJ Yates and Russell Wilson) were facing other rookie quarterbacks (Andy Dalton and Robert Griffin III). The Baltimore defense will give Rivers fits, but his key offensive weapons, running back Melvin Gordon and receiver Keenan Allen, should both be healthy. Plus the Chargers are one of two teams this season that have a better road record (7-1) than home (5-3). Expect the veteran Rivers to seek revenge and out duel the young rookie.

Los Angeles 24, Baltimore 17

CHICAGO BEARS (-6.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

I’m a believer in Foles magic. I watched it during the Super Bowl last year as Philly quarterback Nick Foles picked apart the defense of the New England Patriots. The Eagles closed out the season 3-0 with Foles under center, sneaking into the playoffs thanks to the collapse by the Vikings. You know what else I believe in? Bears linebacker Khalil Mack being the most dominant defensive player in the NFL. The entire Chicago defensive unit is special, and will keep Foles and the Eagles offense at bay. As long as Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky manages the game and doesn’t hand it over to Philly, the Bears should win easily.

Chicago 20, Philly 10

Sunday also is the first major award ceremony for Hollywood. I’ll admit that I have not seen too many of the Golden Globe nominations, but I’m going to roll the dice anyway on some of the major categories.

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama: A Star Is Born

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy: Vice (A movie about former Vice President Dick Chaney is a comedy? Shouldn’t it be, like, a horror movie, or something?)

Best Actress, Drama: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Best Actor, Drama: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical: Christian Bale, Vice

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Vice

Best Director: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Television:

Best Series, Drama: Killing Eve

Best Series, Comedy or Musical: Barry

Best Actress, Drama: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

Best Actor, Drama: Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical: Bill Hader, Barry

Best Supporting Actress: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Supporting Actor: Henry Winkler, Barry

What's Wrong With the NHL and NBA Playoffs?

Beginning in the 2013-2014 season the NHL changed their league structure and playoffs, going to a two-conference, four-division format. The Detroit Red Wings were now in the Eastern Conference and more directly, the Atlantic Division? The great playoff rivalry between Detroit and the Colorado Avalanche from the late 1990’s will now only occur in a Stanley Cup Final. Way to go, hockey gods.

There are now wild-card teams, which I only thought referred to football teams that played the first weekend in January. This is the third format change since 1994, and it doesn’t seem to be progressing (According to Wikipedia, this format is similar to the division system from the 1981-1982 season).

When it happened I never really paid attention being somewhat of a fair-weather hockey fan. I still don’t understand how there can be hockey franchises in Florida, Phoenix, Anaheim, North Carolina (bring back the Whale!), and now Las Vegas.

I try to pay attention to the Boston Bruins and also my alma mater, the Boston University Terriers, during their respective regular seasons. I also buy into the old cliché that nothing is better than playoff hockey, so when I checked the standings the other day to see who the Bruins would be playing in the first round, I was a little surprised.

Last year the Bruins played the Ottawa Senators in the first round but didn’t think anything of the seeding. After a brief interweb search, I've learned that the playoff bracket is now based on the divisions, and not necessarily by record and points.

Because of this, the Bruins open with the Toronto Maple Leafs, who had a better regular season than Eastern Conference playoff teams Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Columbus and New Jersey. If the Bruins move on to the second round, they’ll more than likely play the top seed Tampa Bay. As the Bruins had the second-best record in the East, shouldn’t the matchup of the two best teams happen in the Conference Finals?

This same goes for Winnipeg, who is scheduled to play top seed Nashville in the second round even though they were the second-best team out west. I understand rewarding the division winners, but this format certainly takes away from the other top seeds in each conference and their potential path towards the finals. Since it was only implemented five years ago, it’s probably not going away soon. If the Bruins lose to Toronto, I’m not sure who I’m going to complain to. In theory, the B's really should have been a three seed and played six seed Philly.

The NBA, on the other hand, seems to be moving in the right direction. In February commissioner Adam Silver expressed the possibility of changing the playoff format from the standard East vs. West to rewarding the top 16 teams in the league. This was never done due to travel concerns. In 2018 I think millionaire athletes can suffer a few extra hours on a private team charter. The rest of us should be so lucky when we travel.

Right now this is the playoff bracket, with some good first round matchups (looking at you, Miami and Philly).

But what if I told you playoff bracket could play out something like this:

This would reward Denver, who would push Washington out of the playoffs (sorry Wizards). Up and coming Philly would see playoff staple San Antonio (unprecedented 21 straight seasons of making the post season), LeBron would face the Brow and New Orleans, and as a Celtics fan I would be lying if I said I was completely confident against a fully healthy Timberwolves squad.

And how about the Golden State and Cleveland series in round two?

As for the current bracket, the east still belongs to LeBron until somebody dethrones the Cavs. I might be eating those words because Cleveland’s team defense was the second worst in the league during the regular season, but I still wouldn’t bet against LeBron. Toronto needs to prove they’re not regular season frauds, the Celtics are all banged up, and Philly’s inexperience still leaves a question mark.

If everything lines up as it should in the west, the Houston Rockets will play the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. This series in essence is the NBA Finals, and the playoffs should be reformatted to showcase the league's two best teams. Hopefully the NBA won’t take a page from the NHL handbook and will make these changes for the better.

Please make it so, Mr. Silver.

An Offensive-Driven Championship Sunday

The old saying is that defense wins championships. In recent history it was last year's Broncos, the Seahawks in 2014 and the Ravens in 2001 that won more on stopping opposing offenses than necessarily putting points on the board. Then there's always the gold standard of the 1986 Bears.  Last weekend we saw the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks, the "number one" and number five ranked defenses respectively, go bye bye. The league leader in forced turnovers, the Kansas City Chiefs, also went down. We're left with a final four that are all led by premier quarterbacks and have the potential to run up the score. Could it have been scripted any better? The one theme for Sunday is that defense will be at a premium, and the quarterback play could make all the difference.

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Green Bay Packers (+5.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

You could break down all of the aspects of this game: coaching, the running game, the Packers secondary and how they're going to contain Julio Jones, etc. But this matchup is all about quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, and who is going to make the final play to put his team in a position to win the game. Ryan continued his MVP campaign last week by exploiting the Seahawks Earl Thomas-less secondary. Seattle had to abandon Thomas Rawls and the running game that made them successful against Detroit two weeks ago, and quarterback Russell Wilson couldn't keep up with Ryan and the Falcons offense. Don't expect the same result against Green Bay. Dallas rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott were both impressive in their first playoff game, but it wasn't enough to stop Rodgers and his late game heroics. The Packers are now winners of eight in a row and everyone is hopping aboard the bandwagon, including this writer. Rodgers has made all of the right plays to put his team in this position, and Atlanta's defense is no threat to stop him. The same goes for Green Bay's defense against Ryan. This game has all the makings of a shootout, but could come down to who can avoid making a costly mistake. Look for Rodgers to edge out a nail biter against Ryan and complete Green Bay's improbable run to Houston.

Packers 38, Falcons 35

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Like the Packers the Steelers are rolling, winners of their last nine. Last week against the Chiefs running back Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown both gained over 100 yards but overall the Steelers failed to find the end zone, and survived a failed two-point conversion in the closing minutes. In Week 7 the Pats won 27-14 in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Can Big Ben make the difference on the road in Foxboro? Based on his regular season road numbers (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 78.4 rating) it doesn't look promising. The Pats last week against Houston played less than stellar football, turning the ball over three times that included two interceptions by quarterback Tom Brady. They still managed to pick off Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler three times and win handily 34-16. It's hard to envision the Patriots making the same multiple mistakes again, and if they do they will be in trouble giving the Steelers offense prime field position. What the Pats do have going them is Brady's history against Pittsburgh. In nine career games he is 7-2 with 24 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 114.2 rating, including a 5-1 record against Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Both defenses will have their hands full, but the Pats will overcome Roethlisberger's road troubles and move on to Brady's seventh Super Bowl appearance.

Patriots 34, Steelers 24

Currently the AFC is three point favorites over the NFC for the Super Bowl, and based on that I'm taking the New England Patriots over the Green Bay Packers. The Pats four Super Bowl wins were decided by a total of 13 points, and this game will be no different. Rodgers against Brady is a pinnacle matchup, and in the end the Pats complete their revenge tour and stick it to Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL. Goodell can avoid coming to Foxboro all he wants but he'll have to face the music and hand the Lombardi Trophy to owner Robert Kraft when the Pats are crowned champions.

Patriots 38, Packers 34

Breaking Down the Divisional Playoffs

The NFL has a habit of shooting themselves in the foot.

The league announced on Thursday to no surprise that the San Diego Chargers will be moving to Los Angeles next season. Even though the team had one of the lowest attendance averages in 2016 there has been football in San Diego for 56 years. The move boiled down to a billionaire owner that couldn’t strike a deal with the city to build a new stadium. So for the time being the Chargers will play in a stadium that has a smaller capacity than Fenway Park in a city with now two lousy teams that will most certainly underperform in the L.A. market (and they wonder why ratings are down). Seems like a solid plan.

As most expected Wild-Card Weekend produced four less than stellar games, which was soon forgotten by the College Football National Championship. The game not only displayed marquee players and an exciting finish, but thanks to this guy it’s in the discussion of one of the greatest games of all time (take that Ed Hochuli). 

Now only if college football can figure out a way to keep the game under the four-hour mark.

With last weekend’s mess in the rearview, we can only hope the following matchups can live up to their potential. If not next week’s presidential inauguration should make for some good theater.

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ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Thomas Rawls did his best Beast Mode impersonation last Saturday as he shredded the Detroit defense for 161 rushing yards. Anyone that allowed Rawls to take up a roster spot on their fantasy team can tell you this was certainly his best game of the season. The defense was also reminiscent of its dominant self from recent years, keeping Detroit’s scoring to only two field goals. So is Seattle really as good as they played or was Detroit overmatched and probably shouldn’t have been in the playoffs? I mean wouldn’t have Tampa Bay or even Washington given the Seahawks a better game? Based on Seattle’s inconsistent play down the stretch of the regular season, I’m playing the ‘Detroit are total frauds’ card. Seattle’s offense has a chance to keep the momentum going, as Atlanta’s defense was less than stellar during the season, finishing 25^th in the league. The Falcons did all of their damage on the offensive side of the ball, where they averaged a league best 33.8 points per game. Quarterback Matt Ryan is the front-runner for league MVP after tossing 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns with a rating of 117.1, all career highs. Can Seattle’s defense step up for a second week in a row to keep Atlanta’s offense at bay? A couple of years ago I would have considered it. Ryan has been on a roll at the right time, throwing 11 touchdowns and no picks over the last month of the season, and the Seahawks won’t be in the friendly confines of home. 

Atlanta 28 Seattle 21

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16) over Houston Texans

Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler wasn’t terrible against Oakland last weekend. He protected the ball, made some plays, and even ran for a touchdown. On the other side Raiders rookie quarterback Connor Cook was a deer in the headlights and imploded in his first career start against the Texans defense. But how the tides have turned. At home Osweiler was 6-1 during the regular season and 2-6 on the road, which included a 27-0 loss in Foxboro in Week 3 against third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. In Houston’s three previous trips to Foxboro, which includes the same Divisional Round matchup in 2013, the Texans have lost 41-28, 42-14 and 40-7. Do you see a pattern occurring here? Since returning from his four-game suspension Pats quarterback Tom Brady has never looked better at age 39, throwing 28 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. The New England defense has come on strong as well, allowing roughly 12 points per game since their last lost against Seattle in Week 10. Sure the Pats defense squared off against the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff and Trevor Siemian, but Houston’s offense was also one of the worst in the league (17.4 points per game). The pattern will continue as the Pats win big at home. I just hope that J.J. Watt makes the trip and is on the Houston sideline. We definitely need to see him dominate another broadcast.

New England 38, Houston 10

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers big three of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown looked unstoppable last week against Miami, which is always a good sign. They are now riding an eight game winning streak, and the defense is starting to play better. Can Pittsburgh repeat their Week 4 performance where they thrashed this same Chiefs team 43-14? That game was played at Heinz Field, where Roethlisberger has thrown 22 touchdowns compared to 7 interceptions, but away from home those numbers are dramatically different (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions). Roethlisberger’s road woes are just one of the factors favoring Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is always a tough place to play, and the crowd is going to be extra amped for their first playoff game in six years. The Chiefs defense was pretty imposing during the regular season, leading the league with 33 forced turnovers. Head coach Andy Reid is miraculously 16-2 in his career in the week following a bye, including 3-0 in the playoffs. Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston has been battling a knee injury but is expecting to play, and has been a problem for opposing quarterbacks when he’s been on the field. And as much as it pains me to admit this, receiver/return man Tyreek Hill has been an all-around weapon who can change the momentum of a game on just one play. This will be a close game, but the home field swings the slight advantage towards the Chiefs.

Kansas City 20, Pittsburgh 17

Green Bay Packers (+5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

When Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo went down in the pre-season with a back injury the season looked bleak in Dallas. One certainty was that rookie Ezekiel Elliot had the opportunity to be a premier running back, but how backup quarterback and fellow rookie Dak Prescott would fill in for Romo was still a question mark. The results couldn’t have been better, as both Elliot and Prescott excelled behind a dominant offensive line to secure home field advantage in the NFC. Their first career playoff test will be against the red hot Green Bay Packers, winners now of seven straight. Prescott has done everything right, showing poise and professionalism on and off the field. Will the rookie succumb to the pressure of his first playoff start? Last week the Packers made short work of the Cowboys’ nemesis New York Giants, who beat Dallas twice during the regular season. They lost receiver Jordy Nelson in the process, who has been ruled out for this game. At this point does it really matter for Aaron Rodgers? After receiver Randall Cobb was almost an afterthought during the regular season, the Packers quarterback hit him for three touchdowns against the Giants. Rodgers has been lights out for the past two months, and when he’s this dialed in there’s not a throw he can’t make. It also makes it tough to pick against him. The veteran Rodgers bests the two rookies to keep his streak alive.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 24

A Disparaging Wild-Card Weekend

In the world of sports, 2016 will be one of the more profound and tumultuous years in recent memory. Let's begin with the good: Villanova’s buzzer beater, the LeBron block and Cleveland’s championship, the Rio Olympics overcoming the Zika virus, an uninhabitable Olympic Village and numerous other safety and sanitary issues to bring us Simone Biles, Katie Ladecky, and Michael Phelps swansong, and of course the Cubs World Series title. The bad started with the passing of Muhammed Ali and continued with Gordie Howe, Pat Summit, Jose Fernandez, Arnold Palmer, Craig Sager and the Chapecoense plane crash. Then there’s always the bizarre and indifferent, which a majority of sports stories tend to fall under. This could include the retirement of Peyton Manning, Kobe Bryant and David Ortiz, the Rams move to L.A., Adam LaRoche’s sudden retirement, Laremy Tunsil’s draft day, Dustin Johnson’s controversial first major, Kevin Durant signing with Golden State, Ryan Lochte, and Vin Scully’s rendition of “Wind Beneath My Wings” and eventual send off.

The NFL, as always, had its own share of issues. The television ratings took a dip due to a combination of poor matchups, bad coaching, questionable officiating, a polarizing presidential election, a distasteful commissioner, the crackdown on daily fantasy, too many commercial breaks, oversaturation, and the fact there are too many outlets and options to watch quality television these days. Colin Kaepernick didn’t help matters by staging his ill-informed national anthem protest, but the league bounced back by shoving the Dallas Cowboys down our throats with four straight primetime games after they ruled Thanksgiving afternoon. There was also Deflategate 2, which after a 544 day, $22-million-dollar witch-hunt against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots that was all about protecting the integrity of the game because of the original Deflategate, received the following response from the commissioner’s office:

There were some good things that did happen on the field that will carry over into the post-season. The rookie combination of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot have Cowboys fans reminiscing of Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith after Dallas won the NFC East and Elliot taking the rushing title. After a several year hiatus, the Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins are back in the playoffs, and gone are the recent mainstays Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals. This will actually be the first time since 2003 that the two teams that made the Super Bowl the previous year failed to make the post-season, so a new champion will be crowned in a few short weeks. Will quarterbacks Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson add another championship to their mantle, or can Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or even Prescott experience their first taste of glory? We’ll know a little more after a pu pu platter of mediocrity that is this year’s Wild-Card weekend.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) over Oakland Raiders

What a big, steaming mess this matchup turned out to be. A couple of weeks ago Oakland would have been a touchdown favorite going to this game and I would have picked them without even batting an eye. Derek Carr’s broken leg changed all of that really quick. The third year quarterback was having an MVP caliber season leading the high-octane Raider offense. Carr’s backups Matt McGloin and Connor Cook could only manage six points against the Denver Broncos in Week 17, causing Oakland to lose its first-round bye and shaking up the entire AFC. Now McGloin’s status is doubtful with a shoulder injury and fourth-round rookie Cook will make his FIRST EVER START in a playoff game. Can Latavius Murray carry the ball 40 times and lead Oakland to a win? Not likely. Houston's quarterback situation is also in disarray, and it looks like the $72-million-dollar thief Brock Osweiler is going to start after being benched for Tom Savage in Week 15 against Jacksonville. With Savage still in the concussion protocol, Houston will turn to Branden Weeden to back up Osweiler. Good grief. The good thing for Houston is that their defense is a little more competent than Oakland’s, and that could make the difference with this cringe worthy quarterback matchup. If Cook can’t get receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper involved, Oakland’s bounce back season will be all for nothing.

Houston 21, Oakland 14

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8) over Detroit Lions

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is having a terrific season, setting an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comebacks. Those comebacks were against Indianapolis, Philly, L.A., Washington, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Minnesota again, and Chicago. Only Washington has a winning record (8-7-1), and all of them will be watching the playoffs from home. Their ninth win came against New Orleans, another sub-.500 team. Not exactly the most stellar competition. Detroit is also riding a three game losing streak, which usually doesn’t bode well heading into the post-season. Seattle hasn’t looked like the dominant team of the past, but their defense is still their strong suit, ranking third in the league allowing 18.3 points per game. Their offensive line hasn’t been able to block all season, but quarterback Russell Wilson is one of the best at making plays while on the run. Neither team has an effective running game, so the offenses will rest squarely on the shoulders of both viable quarterbacks. Seattle however is quietly 7-1 at home, with an average margin of victory of roughly 11 points per game. Detroit has won only three games away from Ford Field, and with the crowd noise and Stafford’s finger injury seeming to affect his play, it’s going to be a tough road challenge for the Lions. As good as Stafford has been this season, he will still be seeking his first playoff win when this game is over.

Seattle 28, Detroit 17

Miami Dolphins (+10.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Does anyone else think this line is a taaaad bit high? Miami is not great by any means and is planning to start backup quarterback Matt Moore, which is a much better option than a hobbling Ryan Tannehill. Their running attack will be key with Jay Ajayi, who smoked the Steelers defense for 204 yards when these teams met in Week 6. The also have quality skill players in receivers Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills. If Moore doesn’t make mistakes and manages the offense the Dolphins should be able to move the ball and put points on the board. The same should go for Pittsburgh. The good news for the Steelers is that the offense is healthy, and when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has all of his weapons they’re tough to stop, especially at home. There also isn’t a team playing this weekend that’s hotter than Pittsburgh, winners of their last seven. The Steelers will take care of business, but Miami will be able to hang in a game where defense will not be on display.

Pittsburgh 35, Miami 28

New York Giants (+5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Have we seen this Giants team before (say in the 2008 and 2012 playoffs) that’s built on a solid defense and an offense that pulls one miraculous play out of thin air and finds a way to win? Quarterback Eli Manning is a model of inconsistency during the regular season that it’s hard to believe he has two Super Bowl titles. However his 8-3 playoff record is nothing to shake a stick at, and he has won two playoff games at Lambeau Field in his career. The Eli that shows up on Sunday could determine the Giants fate. The Packers looked all but done after Week 11, where they were riding a four game losing streak that included a blowout loss in Tennessee and a home loss to Indianapolis. Since then they ran the table to win the NFC North. During their six game win streak Aaron Rodgers has been flawless, throwing 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Giants defense has the capability to pressure Rodgers, but the Packers quarterback is tough to beat when he’s playing this well. Green Bay will continue to their hot streak, but the Giants defense keeps it close at a frozen Lambeau in the weekend’s most intriguing matchup.

Green Bay 20, NY Giants 17

Along with the first weekend of playoff football we are also lucky enough that award season is finally upon us. The Golden Globes are Sunday evening, and it wouldn’t be a predictions column without some ‘La La Land’ Hollyweed picks.

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama – Manchester by the Sea

Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical – La La Land

Best Actress, Drama – Natalie Portman, Jackie

Best Actor, Drama – Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis, Fences

Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Director – Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Television:

Best Series, Drama – Game of Thrones

Best Series, Comedy or Musical – Atlanta

Best Actress, Drama – Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

Best Actor, Drama – Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Best Supporting Actress – Thandie Newton, Westworld

Best Supporting Actor – John Lithgow, The Crown