Breaking Down the Divisional Playoffs

The NFL has a habit of shooting themselves in the foot.

The league announced on Thursday to no surprise that the San Diego Chargers will be moving to Los Angeles next season. Even though the team had one of the lowest attendance averages in 2016 there has been football in San Diego for 56 years. The move boiled down to a billionaire owner that couldn’t strike a deal with the city to build a new stadium. So for the time being the Chargers will play in a stadium that has a smaller capacity than Fenway Park in a city with now two lousy teams that will most certainly underperform in the L.A. market (and they wonder why ratings are down). Seems like a solid plan.

As most expected Wild-Card Weekend produced four less than stellar games, which was soon forgotten by the College Football National Championship. The game not only displayed marquee players and an exciting finish, but thanks to this guy it’s in the discussion of one of the greatest games of all time (take that Ed Hochuli). 

Now only if college football can figure out a way to keep the game under the four-hour mark.

With last weekend’s mess in the rearview, we can only hope the following matchups can live up to their potential. If not next week’s presidential inauguration should make for some good theater.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Thomas Rawls did his best Beast Mode impersonation last Saturday as he shredded the Detroit defense for 161 rushing yards. Anyone that allowed Rawls to take up a roster spot on their fantasy team can tell you this was certainly his best game of the season. The defense was also reminiscent of its dominant self from recent years, keeping Detroit’s scoring to only two field goals. So is Seattle really as good as they played or was Detroit overmatched and probably shouldn’t have been in the playoffs? I mean wouldn’t have Tampa Bay or even Washington given the Seahawks a better game? Based on Seattle’s inconsistent play down the stretch of the regular season, I’m playing the ‘Detroit are total frauds’ card. Seattle’s offense has a chance to keep the momentum going, as Atlanta’s defense was less than stellar during the season, finishing 25^th in the league. The Falcons did all of their damage on the offensive side of the ball, where they averaged a league best 33.8 points per game. Quarterback Matt Ryan is the front-runner for league MVP after tossing 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns with a rating of 117.1, all career highs. Can Seattle’s defense step up for a second week in a row to keep Atlanta’s offense at bay? A couple of years ago I would have considered it. Ryan has been on a roll at the right time, throwing 11 touchdowns and no picks over the last month of the season, and the Seahawks won’t be in the friendly confines of home. 

Atlanta 28 Seattle 21

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16) over Houston Texans

Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler wasn’t terrible against Oakland last weekend. He protected the ball, made some plays, and even ran for a touchdown. On the other side Raiders rookie quarterback Connor Cook was a deer in the headlights and imploded in his first career start against the Texans defense. But how the tides have turned. At home Osweiler was 6-1 during the regular season and 2-6 on the road, which included a 27-0 loss in Foxboro in Week 3 against third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. In Houston’s three previous trips to Foxboro, which includes the same Divisional Round matchup in 2013, the Texans have lost 41-28, 42-14 and 40-7. Do you see a pattern occurring here? Since returning from his four-game suspension Pats quarterback Tom Brady has never looked better at age 39, throwing 28 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. The New England defense has come on strong as well, allowing roughly 12 points per game since their last lost against Seattle in Week 10. Sure the Pats defense squared off against the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff and Trevor Siemian, but Houston’s offense was also one of the worst in the league (17.4 points per game). The pattern will continue as the Pats win big at home. I just hope that J.J. Watt makes the trip and is on the Houston sideline. We definitely need to see him dominate another broadcast.

New England 38, Houston 10

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers big three of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown looked unstoppable last week against Miami, which is always a good sign. They are now riding an eight game winning streak, and the defense is starting to play better. Can Pittsburgh repeat their Week 4 performance where they thrashed this same Chiefs team 43-14? That game was played at Heinz Field, where Roethlisberger has thrown 22 touchdowns compared to 7 interceptions, but away from home those numbers are dramatically different (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions). Roethlisberger’s road woes are just one of the factors favoring Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is always a tough place to play, and the crowd is going to be extra amped for their first playoff game in six years. The Chiefs defense was pretty imposing during the regular season, leading the league with 33 forced turnovers. Head coach Andy Reid is miraculously 16-2 in his career in the week following a bye, including 3-0 in the playoffs. Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston has been battling a knee injury but is expecting to play, and has been a problem for opposing quarterbacks when he’s been on the field. And as much as it pains me to admit this, receiver/return man Tyreek Hill has been an all-around weapon who can change the momentum of a game on just one play. This will be a close game, but the home field swings the slight advantage towards the Chiefs.

Kansas City 20, Pittsburgh 17

Green Bay Packers (+5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

When Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo went down in the pre-season with a back injury the season looked bleak in Dallas. One certainty was that rookie Ezekiel Elliot had the opportunity to be a premier running back, but how backup quarterback and fellow rookie Dak Prescott would fill in for Romo was still a question mark. The results couldn’t have been better, as both Elliot and Prescott excelled behind a dominant offensive line to secure home field advantage in the NFC. Their first career playoff test will be against the red hot Green Bay Packers, winners now of seven straight. Prescott has done everything right, showing poise and professionalism on and off the field. Will the rookie succumb to the pressure of his first playoff start? Last week the Packers made short work of the Cowboys’ nemesis New York Giants, who beat Dallas twice during the regular season. They lost receiver Jordy Nelson in the process, who has been ruled out for this game. At this point does it really matter for Aaron Rodgers? After receiver Randall Cobb was almost an afterthought during the regular season, the Packers quarterback hit him for three touchdowns against the Giants. Rodgers has been lights out for the past two months, and when he’s this dialed in there’s not a throw he can’t make. It also makes it tough to pick against him. The veteran Rodgers bests the two rookies to keep his streak alive.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 24