Breaking Down the Divisional Playoffs

The NFL has a habit of shooting themselves in the foot.

The league announced on Thursday to no surprise that the San Diego Chargers will be moving to Los Angeles next season. Even though the team had one of the lowest attendance averages in 2016 there has been football in San Diego for 56 years. The move boiled down to a billionaire owner that couldn’t strike a deal with the city to build a new stadium. So for the time being the Chargers will play in a stadium that has a smaller capacity than Fenway Park in a city with now two lousy teams that will most certainly underperform in the L.A. market (and they wonder why ratings are down). Seems like a solid plan.

As most expected Wild-Card Weekend produced four less than stellar games, which was soon forgotten by the College Football National Championship. The game not only displayed marquee players and an exciting finish, but thanks to this guy it’s in the discussion of one of the greatest games of all time (take that Ed Hochuli). 

Now only if college football can figure out a way to keep the game under the four-hour mark.

With last weekend’s mess in the rearview, we can only hope the following matchups can live up to their potential. If not next week’s presidential inauguration should make for some good theater.

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ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Thomas Rawls did his best Beast Mode impersonation last Saturday as he shredded the Detroit defense for 161 rushing yards. Anyone that allowed Rawls to take up a roster spot on their fantasy team can tell you this was certainly his best game of the season. The defense was also reminiscent of its dominant self from recent years, keeping Detroit’s scoring to only two field goals. So is Seattle really as good as they played or was Detroit overmatched and probably shouldn’t have been in the playoffs? I mean wouldn’t have Tampa Bay or even Washington given the Seahawks a better game? Based on Seattle’s inconsistent play down the stretch of the regular season, I’m playing the ‘Detroit are total frauds’ card. Seattle’s offense has a chance to keep the momentum going, as Atlanta’s defense was less than stellar during the season, finishing 25^th in the league. The Falcons did all of their damage on the offensive side of the ball, where they averaged a league best 33.8 points per game. Quarterback Matt Ryan is the front-runner for league MVP after tossing 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns with a rating of 117.1, all career highs. Can Seattle’s defense step up for a second week in a row to keep Atlanta’s offense at bay? A couple of years ago I would have considered it. Ryan has been on a roll at the right time, throwing 11 touchdowns and no picks over the last month of the season, and the Seahawks won’t be in the friendly confines of home. 

Atlanta 28 Seattle 21

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16) over Houston Texans

Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler wasn’t terrible against Oakland last weekend. He protected the ball, made some plays, and even ran for a touchdown. On the other side Raiders rookie quarterback Connor Cook was a deer in the headlights and imploded in his first career start against the Texans defense. But how the tides have turned. At home Osweiler was 6-1 during the regular season and 2-6 on the road, which included a 27-0 loss in Foxboro in Week 3 against third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. In Houston’s three previous trips to Foxboro, which includes the same Divisional Round matchup in 2013, the Texans have lost 41-28, 42-14 and 40-7. Do you see a pattern occurring here? Since returning from his four-game suspension Pats quarterback Tom Brady has never looked better at age 39, throwing 28 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. The New England defense has come on strong as well, allowing roughly 12 points per game since their last lost against Seattle in Week 10. Sure the Pats defense squared off against the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff and Trevor Siemian, but Houston’s offense was also one of the worst in the league (17.4 points per game). The pattern will continue as the Pats win big at home. I just hope that J.J. Watt makes the trip and is on the Houston sideline. We definitely need to see him dominate another broadcast.

New England 38, Houston 10

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers big three of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown looked unstoppable last week against Miami, which is always a good sign. They are now riding an eight game winning streak, and the defense is starting to play better. Can Pittsburgh repeat their Week 4 performance where they thrashed this same Chiefs team 43-14? That game was played at Heinz Field, where Roethlisberger has thrown 22 touchdowns compared to 7 interceptions, but away from home those numbers are dramatically different (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions). Roethlisberger’s road woes are just one of the factors favoring Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is always a tough place to play, and the crowd is going to be extra amped for their first playoff game in six years. The Chiefs defense was pretty imposing during the regular season, leading the league with 33 forced turnovers. Head coach Andy Reid is miraculously 16-2 in his career in the week following a bye, including 3-0 in the playoffs. Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston has been battling a knee injury but is expecting to play, and has been a problem for opposing quarterbacks when he’s been on the field. And as much as it pains me to admit this, receiver/return man Tyreek Hill has been an all-around weapon who can change the momentum of a game on just one play. This will be a close game, but the home field swings the slight advantage towards the Chiefs.

Kansas City 20, Pittsburgh 17

Green Bay Packers (+5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

When Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo went down in the pre-season with a back injury the season looked bleak in Dallas. One certainty was that rookie Ezekiel Elliot had the opportunity to be a premier running back, but how backup quarterback and fellow rookie Dak Prescott would fill in for Romo was still a question mark. The results couldn’t have been better, as both Elliot and Prescott excelled behind a dominant offensive line to secure home field advantage in the NFC. Their first career playoff test will be against the red hot Green Bay Packers, winners now of seven straight. Prescott has done everything right, showing poise and professionalism on and off the field. Will the rookie succumb to the pressure of his first playoff start? Last week the Packers made short work of the Cowboys’ nemesis New York Giants, who beat Dallas twice during the regular season. They lost receiver Jordy Nelson in the process, who has been ruled out for this game. At this point does it really matter for Aaron Rodgers? After receiver Randall Cobb was almost an afterthought during the regular season, the Packers quarterback hit him for three touchdowns against the Giants. Rodgers has been lights out for the past two months, and when he’s this dialed in there’s not a throw he can’t make. It also makes it tough to pick against him. The veteran Rodgers bests the two rookies to keep his streak alive.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 24

Breaking Down Football's Best Weekend

A couple of random thoughts before diving into this weekend’s divisional round matchups…

So deaths really do come in threes. First we heard the unfortunate news of Scott Weiland finally succumbing to the addiction demons that plagued him for so many years. Regardless of the band he was playing in, you would not find a more dynamic front man that emerged over the last twenty years. Next it was Lemmy, who was the embodiment of heavy metal and was still making loud records and touring pushing the age of 70. Lastly we lost David Bowie, one of the most influential and transcendent artists of all time. Although their genres and styles were different, they will each be remembered for their individuality and lasting impression on the music world.

While we’re mourning…

RIP Alan Rickman. From Hans Gruber to the Sheriff of Nottingham to Severus Snape, there was not a better antagonist in all of cinema. He was an underappreciated actor that will surely be missed.

Moving on…

Have the fans of the Cincinnati Bengals inherited the most tortured fan base in the NFL trophy? Normally you might think of the poor saps that route for teams like Cleveland and Buffalo, but the manner of how the ‘Bungles’ lost against the Steelers last weekend is inexcusable. It's obvious head coach Marvin Lewis doesn’t have control over his players, and now with an 0-7 playoff record, it’s shocking that he hasn’t been fired yet. Cincinnati’s genius linebacker Vontaze Burfict has been suspended three games for his head hunting stunt against Steelers receiver Antonio Brown, but I’m sure once Burfict appeals his case to commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL his suspension will be reduced. It’s not like he was facing allegations of taking HGH (more on that later) or even worse, had “general awareness” of air being deflated from footballs.

Speaking of Deflategate…

There was a report from ESPN before last week’s Seattle and Minnesota game, where the temperature at kickoff was -6 degrees, that the NFL was concerned about the air pressure in the game balls dropping below the minimum 12.5 PSI due to the severe cold. It sounds to me like the league is acknowledging that the weather conditions and basic science could affect the air pressure in footballs. Of course something like that could never happen in balmy New England during this time of year.

The same Seattle and Minnesota game drew a 22.5 rating and 44 share, which turned out to be the highest rated early Sunday wild-card game since 1995. It averaged 35.5 million viewers and the late afternoon Green Bay and Washington game averaged 38.8 million viewers. Even if you were disgusted by the actions of Vontaze Burfict and are fed up with the league, there’s no denying that the NFL owned the weekend. And they’re going to own this weekend too. In case you haven’t heard, four of the eight starting quarterbacks in the divisional round were number one overall picks (Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, Peyton Manning) while five of them (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russel Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Manning) won eight of the last twelve Super Bowls. You couldn't have written a better script.       

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Patriot fans have legitimate reasons to be worried. Their offensive line has been in shambles for most of the season, and the Kansas City pass rush is one of the best in league (fourth during the regular season with 48 sacks). The Chiefs are the hottest team in football, finishing the season on a ten game winning streak before embarrassing the Houston Texans 30-0 last Saturday. The Pats on the other hand lost 4 of their last 6, including some questionable coaching decisions in losses against the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets. All signs right now point towards the Chiefs, and if the Patriots didn’t flake out in Week 17 in Miami and ended up with the first seed, I’d be picking Kansas City to beat Denver. But this is January in Foxboro, where Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 14-3 at home with an overall 21-8 playoff record. Brady’s go to receiver Julian Edelman is scheduled to play after missing the last seven games with a broken foot. Before Edelman’s injury, the Pats offense was averaging just under 34 points a game. Kansas City’s offense is not known for its passing attack, so if New England jumps out to an early lead, the Chiefs could have a difficult time playing catch up, especially if receiver Jeremy Maclin is limited. Plus I have a tad bit more confidence in Pats head coach Bill Belichick than Chifs head coach Andy Reid. The Pats will advance to their fifth straight AFC Championship.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7) over Green Bay Packers

I made the mistake last week of picking against Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers against a Redskins team that reaped the benefits of playing in the poor NFC East. I bought into Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins even though in his career as a starter he’s 0-7 against teams with a winning record. This is where I would normally say that I’m not going to make that mistake again, but the Arizona Cardinals are a whole different animal than Washington. The Cardinals beat this same Green Bay team three weeks ago handily 38-8 and not much has changed since then. Arizona boasts one of the top offenses in the league, and they’re pretty stingy on defense as well. The Packers aren’t going to be able to move the ball at will like they did in the second half last week. Unlike last year Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is healthy going into this postseason, and this team has all of the tools to make a run towards the Super Bowl. Look for a repeat performance of Week 16 from Arizona.

Seattle Seahawks (+2) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is the league’s MVP. There’s no denying that. He lost his best receiver Kelvin Benjamin to injury in the preseason and still led the highest scoring offense in the league. Their defense is pretty stout too, leading the league during the regular season with 39 takeaways and ranking sixth in total defense. Back in Week 6, Carolina scored 13 fourth quarter points on the road to beat the Seahawks 27-23, showing they were to be taken seriously as contenders. That was ages ago. Seattle played a tough game in Minnesota last week, barely surviving thanks to Blair Walsh’s botched chip shot. That’s just how things have been working out for this team recently, and good teams take advantage of second chances. The Seahawks came out of the gate looking vulnerable, starting with a 2-4 record, but like always turned things around midway through the season and are peaking at the perfect time. Over the course of the past month quarterback Russel Wilson surpassed Newton as the best player in the league, and Seattle's defense is healthy and is playing its best football. Newton won his first playoff game last year in his fourth season, beating third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley and the Arizona Cardinals at home before traveling to Seattle and losing to this same Seahawks team. Currently in his fourth season Wilson’s playoff record is now 7-2 after last week. Fatigue may play a factor for Seattle, but they are experienced and know how to win in the postseason. The Seahawks keep their hot streak alive.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

It's pretty obvious that no one really cares about the report that Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had HGH delivered to his home. If he used it to speed up his recovery from neck surgery to make it back onto the playing field, so be it. There’s no solid evidence to prove these allegations, so the guy can’t be convicted just yet. Although how it hasn’t morphed into a larger story is perplexing. If this report was about the supermodel wife of a certain quarterback in New England having HGH delivered to her, that quarterback would be raked over the coals and crucified. ESPN, the same network that not only employs Ray Lewis and Chris “Fall Guy” Carter but recently showcased an interview with Adrian Peterson that perceived him as a caring father, would have a field day. The good news for Manning is that he’s expected to start for Denver on Sunday. Is that necessarily good for the Broncos? Manning is notorious for his one and done performances in the playoffs (nine times, including last year at home against Indianapolis) and his subpar overall playoff record (11-13). Plus before Manning was sidelined with an injury in Week 10, he had thrown 17 interceptions compared to nine touchdowns. Luckily Denver has the number one defense in the league. Pittsburgh will be without receiver Antonio Brown and running back DeAngelo Williams, so a beat-up Ben Roethlisberger is going to have a difficult time orchestrating any offense. However I don’t expect Manning to light up the scoreboard either. Pittsburgh will hang, but Denver will win in the end, setting up potentially the final Brady vs. Manning matchup ever in the AFC Championship.