Saturday, January 16, 2016

Breaking Down Football's Best Weekend

A couple of random thoughts before diving into this weekend’s divisional round matchups…

So deaths really do come in threes. First we heard the unfortunate news of Scott Weiland finally succumbing to the addiction demons that plagued him for so many years. Regardless of the band he was playing in, you would not find a more dynamic front man that emerged over the last twenty years. Next it was Lemmy, who was the embodiment of heavy metal and was still making loud records and touring pushing the age of 70. Lastly we lost David Bowie, one of the most influential and transcendent artists of all time. Although their genres and styles were different, they will each be remembered for their individuality and lasting impression on the music world.



While we’re mourning…

RIP Alan Rickman. From Hans Gruber to the Sheriff of Nottingham to Severus Snape, there was not a better antagonist in all of cinema. He was an underappreciated actor that will surely be missed.



Moving on…

Have the fans of the Cincinnati Bengals inherited the most tortured fan base in the NFL trophy? Normally you might think of the poor saps that route for teams like Cleveland and Buffalo, but the manner of how the ‘Bungles’ lost against the Steelers last weekend is inexcusable. It's obvious head coach Marvin Lewis doesn’t have control over his players, and now with an 0-7 playoff record, it’s shocking that he hasn’t been fired yet. Cincinnati’s genius linebacker Vontaze Burfict has been suspended three games for his head hunting stunt against Steelers receiver Antonio Brown, but I’m sure once Burfict appeals his case to commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL his suspension will be reduced. It’s not like he was facing allegations of taking HGH (more on that later) or even worse, had “general awareness” of air being deflated from footballs.

Speaking of Deflategate…

There was a report from ESPN before last week’s Seattle and Minnesota game, where the temperature at kickoff was -6 degrees, that the NFL was concerned about the air pressure in the game balls dropping below the minimum 12.5 PSI due to the severe cold. It sounds to me like the league is acknowledging that the weather conditions and basic science could affect the air pressure in footballs. Of course something like that could never happen in balmy New England during this time of year.

The same Seattle and Minnesota game drew a 22.5 rating and 44 share, which turned out to be the highest rated early Sunday wild-card game since 1995. It averaged 35.5 million viewers and the late afternoon Green Bay and Washington game averaged 38.8 million viewers. Even if you were disgusted by the actions of Vontaze Burfict and are fed up with the league, there’s no denying that the NFL owned the weekend. And they’re going to own this weekend too. In case you haven’t heard, four of the eight starting quarterbacks in the divisional round were number one overall picks (Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, Peyton Manning) while five of them (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russel Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Manning) won eight of the last twelve Super Bowls. You couldn't have written a better script.       

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Patriot fans have legitimate reasons to be worried. Their offensive line has been in shambles for most of the season, and the Kansas City pass rush is one of the best in league (fourth during the regular season with 48 sacks). The Chiefs are the hottest team in football, finishing the season on a ten game winning streak before embarrassing the Houston Texans 30-0 last Saturday. The Pats on the other hand lost 4 of their last 6, including some questionable coaching decisions in losses against the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets. All signs right now point towards the Chiefs, and if the Patriots didn’t flake out in Week 17 in Miami and ended up with the first seed, I’d be picking Kansas City to beat Denver. But this is January in Foxboro, where Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 14-3 at home with an overall 21-8 playoff record. Brady’s go to receiver Julian Edelman is scheduled to play after missing the last seven games with a broken foot. Before Edelman’s injury, the Pats offense was averaging just under 34 points a game. Kansas City’s offense is not known for its passing attack, so if New England jumps out to an early lead, the Chiefs could have a difficult time playing catch up, especially if receiver Jeremy Maclin is limited. Plus I have a tad bit more confidence in Pats head coach Bill Belichick than Chifs head coach Andy Reid. The Pats will advance to their fifth straight AFC Championship.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7) over Green Bay Packers

I made the mistake last week of picking against Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers against a Redskins team that reaped the benefits of playing in the poor NFC East. I bought into Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins even though in his career as a starter he’s 0-7 against teams with a winning record. This is where I would normally say that I’m not going to make that mistake again, but the Arizona Cardinals are a whole different animal than Washington. The Cardinals beat this same Green Bay team three weeks ago handily 38-8 and not much has changed since then. Arizona boasts one of the top offenses in the league, and they’re pretty stingy on defense as well. The Packers aren’t going to be able to move the ball at will like they did in the second half last week. Unlike last year Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is healthy going into this postseason, and this team has all of the tools to make a run towards the Super Bowl. Look for a repeat performance of Week 16 from Arizona.

Seattle Seahawks (+2) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is the league’s MVP. There’s no denying that. He lost his best receiver Kelvin Benjamin to injury in the preseason and still led the highest scoring offense in the league. Their defense is pretty stout too, leading the league during the regular season with 39 takeaways and ranking sixth in total defense. Back in Week 6, Carolina scored 13 fourth quarter points on the road to beat the Seahawks 27-23, showing they were to be taken seriously as contenders. That was ages ago. Seattle played a tough game in Minnesota last week, barely surviving thanks to Blair Walsh’s botched chip shot. That’s just how things have been working out for this team recently, and good teams take advantage of second chances. The Seahawks came out of the gate looking vulnerable, starting with a 2-4 record, but like always turned things around midway through the season and are peaking at the perfect time. Over the course of the past month quarterback Russel Wilson surpassed Newton as the best player in the league, and Seattle's defense is healthy and is playing its best football. Newton won his first playoff game last year in his fourth season, beating third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley and the Arizona Cardinals at home before traveling to Seattle and losing to this same Seahawks team. Currently in his fourth season Wilson’s playoff record is now 7-2 after last week. Fatigue may play a factor for Seattle, but they are experienced and know how to win in the postseason. The Seahawks keep their hot streak alive.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

It's pretty obvious that no one really cares about the report that Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had HGH delivered to his home. If he used it to speed up his recovery from neck surgery to make it back onto the playing field, so be it. There’s no solid evidence to prove these allegations, so the guy can’t be convicted just yet. Although how it hasn’t morphed into a larger story is perplexing. If this report was about the supermodel wife of a certain quarterback in New England having HGH delivered to her, that quarterback would be raked over the coals and crucified. ESPN, the same network that not only employs Ray Lewis and Chris “Fall Guy” Carter but recently showcased an interview with Adrian Peterson that perceived him as a caring father, would have a field day. The good news for Manning is that he’s expected to start for Denver on Sunday. Is that necessarily good for the Broncos? Manning is notorious for his one and done performances in the playoffs (nine times, including last year at home against Indianapolis) and his subpar overall playoff record (11-13). Plus before Manning was sidelined with an injury in Week 10, he had thrown 17 interceptions compared to nine touchdowns. Luckily Denver has the number one defense in the league. Pittsburgh will be without receiver Antonio Brown and running back DeAngelo Williams, so a beat-up Ben Roethlisberger is going to have a difficult time orchestrating any offense. However I don’t expect Manning to light up the scoreboard either. Pittsburgh will hang, but Denver will win in the end, setting up potentially the final Brady vs. Manning matchup ever in the AFC Championship.

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