Showing posts with label NFL Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Playoffs. Show all posts

Saturday, January 21, 2017

An Offensive-Driven Championship Sunday

The old saying is that defense wins championships. In recent history it was last year's Broncos, the Seahawks in 2014 and the Ravens in 2001 that won more on stopping opposing offenses than necessarily putting points on the board. Then there's always the gold standard of the 1986 Bears.  Last weekend we saw the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks, the "number one" and number five ranked defenses respectively, go bye bye. The league leader in forced turnovers, the Kansas City Chiefs, also went down. We're left with a final four that are all led by premier quarterbacks and have the potential to run up the score. Could it have been scripted any better? The one theme for Sunday is that defense will be at a premium, and the quarterback play could make all the difference.

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Green Bay Packers (+5.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

You could break down all of the aspects of this game: coaching, the running game, the Packers secondary and how they're going to contain Julio Jones, etc. But this matchup is all about quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, and who is going to make the final play to put his team in a position to win the game. Ryan continued his MVP campaign last week by exploiting the Seahawks Earl Thomas-less secondary. Seattle had to abandon Thomas Rawls and the running game that made them successful against Detroit two weeks ago, and quarterback Russell Wilson couldn't keep up with Ryan and the Falcons offense. Don't expect the same result against Green Bay. Dallas rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott were both impressive in their first playoff game, but it wasn't enough to stop Rodgers and his late game heroics. The Packers are now winners of eight in a row and everyone is hopping aboard the bandwagon, including this writer. Rodgers has made all of the right plays to put his team in this position, and Atlanta's defense is no threat to stop him. The same goes for Green Bay's defense against Ryan. This game has all the makings of a shootout, but could come down to who can avoid making a costly mistake. Look for Rodgers to edge out a nail biter against Ryan and complete Green Bay's improbable run to Houston.

Packers 38, Falcons 35

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Like the Packers the Steelers are rolling, winners of their last nine. Last week against the Chiefs running back Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown both gained over 100 yards but overall the Steelers failed to find the end zone, and survived a failed two-point conversion in the closing minutes. In Week 7 the Pats won 27-14 in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Can Big Ben make the difference on the road in Foxboro? Based on his regular season road numbers (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 78.4 rating) it doesn't look promising. The Pats last week against Houston played less than stellar football, turning the ball over three times that included two interceptions by quarterback Tom Brady. They still managed to pick off Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler three times and win handily 34-16. It's hard to envision the Patriots making the same multiple mistakes again, and if they do they will be in trouble giving the Steelers offense prime field position. What the Pats do have going them is Brady's history against Pittsburgh. In nine career games he is 7-2 with 24 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 114.2 rating, including a 5-1 record against Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Both defenses will have their hands full, but the Pats will overcome Roethlisberger's road troubles and move on to Brady's seventh Super Bowl appearance.

Patriots 34, Steelers 24

Currently the AFC is three point favorites over the NFC for the Super Bowl, and based on that I'm taking the New England Patriots over the Green Bay Packers. The Pats four Super Bowl wins were decided by a total of 13 points, and this game will be no different. Rodgers against Brady is a pinnacle matchup, and in the end the Pats complete their revenge tour and stick it to Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL. Goodell can avoid coming to Foxboro all he wants but he'll have to face the music and hand the Lombardi Trophy to owner Robert Kraft when the Pats are crowned champions.

Patriots 38, Packers 34

Friday, January 13, 2017

Breaking Down the Divisional Playoffs

The NFL has a habit of shooting themselves in the foot.

The league announced on Thursday to no surprise that the San Diego Chargers will be moving to Los Angeles next season. Even though the team had one of the lowest attendance averages in 2016 there has been football in San Diego for 56 years. The move boiled down to a billionaire owner that couldn’t strike a deal with the city to build a new stadium. So for the time being the Chargers will play in a stadium that has a smaller capacity than Fenway Park in a city with now two lousy teams that will most certainly underperform in the L.A. market (and they wonder why ratings are down). Seems like a solid plan.

As most expected Wild-Card Weekend produced four less than stellar games, which was soon forgotten by the College Football National Championship. The game not only displayed marquee players and an exciting finish, but thanks to this guy it’s in the discussion of one of the greatest games of all time (take that Ed Hochuli). 


Now only if college football can figure out a way to keep the game under the four-hour mark.

With last weekend’s mess in the rearview, we can only hope the following matchups can live up to their potential. If not next week’s presidential inauguration should make for some good theater.

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ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Thomas Rawls did his best Beast Mode impersonation last Saturday as he shredded the Detroit defense for 161 rushing yards. Anyone that allowed Rawls to take up a roster spot on their fantasy team can tell you this was certainly his best game of the season. The defense was also reminiscent of its dominant self from recent years, keeping Detroit’s scoring to only two field goals. So is Seattle really as good as they played or was Detroit overmatched and probably shouldn’t have been in the playoffs? I mean wouldn’t have Tampa Bay or even Washington given the Seahawks a better game? Based on Seattle’s inconsistent play down the stretch of the regular season, I’m playing the ‘Detroit are total frauds’ card. Seattle’s offense has a chance to keep the momentum going, as Atlanta’s defense was less than stellar during the season, finishing 25th in the league. The Falcons did all of their damage on the offensive side of the ball, where they averaged a league best 33.8 points per game. Quarterback Matt Ryan is the front-runner for league MVP after tossing 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns with a rating of 117.1, all career highs. Can Seattle’s defense step up for a second week in a row to keep Atlanta’s offense at bay? A couple of years ago I would have considered it. Ryan has been on a roll at the right time, throwing 11 touchdowns and no picks over the last month of the season, and the Seahawks won’t be in the friendly confines of home. 

Atlanta 28 Seattle 21

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16) over Houston Texans

Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler wasn’t terrible against Oakland last weekend. He protected the ball, made some plays, and even ran for a touchdown. On the other side Raiders rookie quarterback Connor Cook was a deer in the headlights and imploded in his first career start against the Texans defense. But how the tides have turned. At home Osweiler was 6-1 during the regular season and 2-6 on the road, which included a 27-0 loss in Foxboro in Week 3 against third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. In Houston’s three previous trips to Foxboro, which includes the same Divisional Round matchup in 2013, the Texans have lost 41-28, 42-14 and 40-7. Do you see a pattern occurring here? Since returning from his four-game suspension Pats quarterback Tom Brady has never looked better at age 39, throwing 28 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. The New England defense has come on strong as well, allowing roughly 12 points per game since their last lost against Seattle in Week 10. Sure the Pats defense squared off against the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff and Trevor Siemian, but Houston’s offense was also one of the worst in the league (17.4 points per game). The pattern will continue as the Pats win big at home. I just hope that J.J. Watt makes the trip and is on the Houston sideline. We definitely need to see him dominate another broadcast.

New England 38, Houston 10

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers big three of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown looked unstoppable last week against Miami, which is always a good sign. They are now riding an eight game winning streak, and the defense is starting to play better. Can Pittsburgh repeat their Week 4 performance where they thrashed this same Chiefs team 43-14? That game was played at Heinz Field, where Roethlisberger has thrown 22 touchdowns compared to 7 interceptions, but away from home those numbers are dramatically different (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions). Roethlisberger’s road woes are just one of the factors favoring Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is always a tough place to play, and the crowd is going to be extra amped for their first playoff game in six years. The Chiefs defense was pretty imposing during the regular season, leading the league with 33 forced turnovers. Head coach Andy Reid is miraculously 16-2 in his career in the week following a bye, including 3-0 in the playoffs. Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston has been battling a knee injury but is expecting to play, and has been a problem for opposing quarterbacks when he’s been on the field. And as much as it pains me to admit this, receiver/return man Tyreek Hill has been an all-around weapon who can change the momentum of a game on just one play. This will be a close game, but the home field swings the slight advantage towards the Chiefs.

Kansas City 20, Pittsburgh 17

Green Bay Packers (+5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

When Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo went down in the pre-season with a back injury the season looked bleak in Dallas. One certainty was that rookie Ezekiel Elliot had the opportunity to be a premier running back, but how backup quarterback and fellow rookie Dak Prescott would fill in for Romo was still a question mark. The results couldn’t have been better, as both Elliot and Prescott excelled behind a dominant offensive line to secure home field advantage in the NFC. Their first career playoff test will be against the red hot Green Bay Packers, winners now of seven straight. Prescott has done everything right, showing poise and professionalism on and off the field. Will the rookie succumb to the pressure of his first playoff start? Last week the Packers made short work of the Cowboys’ nemesis New York Giants, who beat Dallas twice during the regular season. They lost receiver Jordy Nelson in the process, who has been ruled out for this game. At this point does it really matter for Aaron Rodgers? After receiver Randall Cobb was almost an afterthought during the regular season, the Packers quarterback hit him for three touchdowns against the Giants. Rodgers has been lights out for the past two months, and when he’s this dialed in there’s not a throw he can’t make. It also makes it tough to pick against him. The veteran Rodgers bests the two rookies to keep his streak alive.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 24

Saturday, January 7, 2017

A Disparaging Wild-Card Weekend

In the world of sports, 2016 will be one of the more profound and tumultuous years in recent memory. Let's begin with the good: Villanova’s buzzer beater, the LeBron block and Cleveland’s championship, the Rio Olympics overcoming the Zika virus, an uninhabitable Olympic Village and numerous other safety and sanitary issues to bring us Simone Biles, Katie Ladecky, and Michael Phelps swansong, and of course the Cubs World Series title. The bad started with the passing of Muhammed Ali and continued with Gordie Howe, Pat Summit, Jose Fernandez, Arnold Palmer, Craig Sager and the Chapecoense plane crash. Then there’s always the bizarre and indifferent, which a majority of sports stories tend to fall under. This could include the retirement of Peyton Manning, Kobe Bryant and David Ortiz, the Rams move to L.A., Adam LaRoche’s sudden retirement, Laremy Tunsil’s draft day, Dustin Johnson’s controversial first major, Kevin Durant signing with Golden State, Ryan Lochte, and Vin Scully’s rendition of “Wind Beneath My Wings” and eventual send off.

The NFL, as always, had its own share of issues. The television ratings took a dip due to a combination of poor matchups, bad coaching, questionable officiating, a polarizing presidential election, a distasteful commissioner, the crackdown on daily fantasy, too many commercial breaks, oversaturation, and the fact there are too many outlets and options to watch quality television these days. Colin Kaepernick didn’t help matters by staging his ill-informed national anthem protest, but the league bounced back by shoving the Dallas Cowboys down our throats with four straight primetime games after they ruled Thanksgiving afternoon. There was also Deflategate 2, which after a 544 day, $22-million-dollar witch-hunt against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots that was all about protecting the integrity of the game because of the original Deflategate, received the following response from the commissioner’s office:



There were some good things that did happen on the field that will carry over into the post-season. The rookie combination of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot have Cowboys fans reminiscing of Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith after Dallas won the NFC East and Elliot taking the rushing title. After a several year hiatus, the Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins are back in the playoffs, and gone are the recent mainstays Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals. This will actually be the first time since 2003 that the two teams that made the Super Bowl the previous year failed to make the post-season, so a new champion will be crowned in a few short weeks. Will quarterbacks Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson add another championship to their mantle, or can Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or even Prescott experience their first taste of glory? We’ll know a little more after a pu pu platter of mediocrity that is this year’s Wild-Card weekend.

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HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) over Oakland Raiders

What a big, steaming mess this matchup turned out to be. A couple of weeks ago Oakland would have been a touchdown favorite going to this game and I would have picked them without even batting an eye. Derek Carr’s broken leg changed all of that really quick. The third year quarterback was having an MVP caliber season leading the high-octane Raider offense. Carr’s backups Matt McGloin and Connor Cook could only manage six points against the Denver Broncos in Week 17, causing Oakland to lose its first-round bye and shaking up the entire AFC. Now McGloin’s status is doubtful with a shoulder injury and fourth-round rookie Cook will make his FIRST EVER START in a playoff game. Can Latavius Murray carry the ball 40 times and lead Oakland to a win? Not likely. Houston's quarterback situation is also in disarray, and it looks like the $72-million-dollar thief Brock Osweiler is going to start after being benched for Tom Savage in Week 15 against Jacksonville. With Savage still in the concussion protocol, Houston will turn to Branden Weeden to back up Osweiler. Good grief. The good thing for Houston is that their defense is a little more competent than Oakland’s, and that could make the difference with this cringe worthy quarterback matchup. If Cook can’t get receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper involved, Oakland’s bounce back season will be all for nothing.

Houston 21, Oakland 14

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8) over Detroit Lions

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is having a terrific season, setting an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comebacks. Those comebacks were against Indianapolis, Philly, L.A., Washington, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Minnesota again, and Chicago. Only Washington has a winning record (8-7-1), and all of them will be watching the playoffs from home. Their ninth win came against New Orleans, another sub-.500 team. Not exactly the most stellar competition. Detroit is also riding a three game losing streak, which usually doesn’t bode well heading into the post-season. Seattle hasn’t looked like the dominant team of the past, but their defense is still their strong suit, ranking third in the league allowing 18.3 points per game. Their offensive line hasn’t been able to block all season, but quarterback Russell Wilson is one of the best at making plays while on the run. Neither team has an effective running game, so the offenses will rest squarely on the shoulders of both viable quarterbacks. Seattle however is quietly 7-1 at home, with an average margin of victory of roughly 11 points per game. Detroit has won only three games away from Ford Field, and with the crowd noise and Stafford’s finger injury seeming to affect his play, it’s going to be a tough road challenge for the Lions. As good as Stafford has been this season, he will still be seeking his first playoff win when this game is over.

Seattle 28, Detroit 17

Miami Dolphins (+10.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Does anyone else think this line is a taaaad bit high? Miami is not great by any means and is planning to start backup quarterback Matt Moore, which is a much better option than a hobbling Ryan Tannehill. Their running attack will be key with Jay Ajayi, who smoked the Steelers defense for 204 yards when these teams met in Week 6. The also have quality skill players in receivers Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills. If Moore doesn’t make mistakes and manages the offense the Dolphins should be able to move the ball and put points on the board. The same should go for Pittsburgh. The good news for the Steelers is that the offense is healthy, and when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has all of his weapons they’re tough to stop, especially at home. There also isn’t a team playing this weekend that’s hotter than Pittsburgh, winners of their last seven. The Steelers will take care of business, but Miami will be able to hang in a game where defense will not be on display.

Pittsburgh 35, Miami 28

New York Giants (+5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Have we seen this Giants team before (say in the 2008 and 2012 playoffs) that’s built on a solid defense and an offense that pulls one miraculous play out of thin air and finds a way to win? Quarterback Eli Manning is a model of inconsistency during the regular season that it’s hard to believe he has two Super Bowl titles. However his 8-3 playoff record is nothing to shake a stick at, and he has won two playoff games at Lambeau Field in his career. The Eli that shows up on Sunday could determine the Giants fate. The Packers looked all but done after Week 11, where they were riding a four game losing streak that included a blowout loss in Tennessee and a home loss to Indianapolis. Since then they ran the table to win the NFC North. During their six game win streak Aaron Rodgers has been flawless, throwing 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Giants defense has the capability to pressure Rodgers, but the Packers quarterback is tough to beat when he’s playing this well. Green Bay will continue to their hot streak, but the Giants defense keeps it close at a frozen Lambeau in the weekend’s most intriguing matchup.

Green Bay 20, NY Giants 17

Along with the first weekend of playoff football we are also lucky enough that award season is finally upon us. The Golden Globes are Sunday evening, and it wouldn’t be a predictions column without some ‘La La Land’ Hollyweed picks.

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama – Manchester by the Sea
Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical – La La Land
Best Actress, Drama – Natalie Portman, Jackie
Best Actor, Drama – Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Emma Stone, La La Land
Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis, Fences
Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Best Director – Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Television:

Best Series, Drama – Game of Thrones
Best Series, Comedy or Musical – Atlanta
Best Actress, Drama – Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
Best Actor, Drama – Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Best Supporting Actress – Thandie Newton, Westworld
Best Supporting Actor – John Lithgow, The Crown   

Saturday, January 9, 2016

A Wide Open Wild-Card Weekend

Now that the 2015 NFL season is in the books, let me pose this question: has there been a more wonky season in recent memory? Due to injury, fourteen teams required the services of a backup quarterback for a minimal to significant amount of time. Fans were lucky enough to see the skills of Matt Cassel, Kellen Moore, Brandon Weeden, Mark Sanchez, Blaine Gabbert, Case Keenum, Jimmy Clausen, EJ Manuel, Brock Osweiler, Matt Schaub, AJ McCarron, Johnny Manziel, Austin Davis, Landry Jones, Michael Vick, T.J. Yates, Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst, Josh Freeman, Ryan Lindley and Zach Mettenberger (Yikes!). Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson won the rushing title with 1485 yards, the lowest total to win the award since LaDainian Tomlinson's 1474 yards in 2007. As always, some teams surprised, but most disappointed (Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, the NFC East).

The ripple effect of the injury bug was felt everywhere. Did you win your fantasy league with Blake Bortles as your quarterback? It wouldn't be a total shock. As an example, in one league I began the season with Marshawn Lynch and Carlos Hyde as my starting running backs, and ended up riding a volatile and unpredictable T.J. Yeldon/Spencer Ware/Alfred Morris/Matt Jones/Danny Woodhead/Cameron Artis-Payne cocktail mix during the playoffs. In another league I drafted the same Carlos Hyde along with Le'Veon Bell and Matt Forte as running backs. You can only imagine how well I did in that league. The bottom line is if you wasted a top pick on Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray or Andrew Luck, I can sympathize with your pain.

The playoffs however are a model of consistency, with eight of the twelve qualifying teams making a repeat appearance from last year, but not without some new brewing questions going into the postseason. Can the Patriots stick it to the NFL and commissioner Roger Goodell and win back to back Super Bowls? Will there be a quarterback controversy in Denver? Can Marvin Lewis and Cincinnati finally win a playoff game? With three home teams going in as underdogs this weekend, almost anything can happen. All will be revealed over the course of the next month as we make our way towards the Super Bowl in Santa Clara, but for now it’s time to break down a wide open Wild-Card weekend.

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Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS

Are there two playoff teams that have a more similar story? The Texans started out 2-5, including a 27-20 loss to Kansas City in Week 1, and looked like the worst team in the atrocity that is the AFC South. Their defense finally came to life to lift them to the division title. The Chiefs began the season 1-5 before rattling off ten straight wins to come within a Peyton Manning overblown resurrection of winning the AFC West. KC's defense has also stepped up, holding opponents to an average of just under 13 points a game during their winning streak. Both teams can get after the quarterback, ranking fourth (KC) and fifth (Houston) in sacks, so this game has the potential to be a defensive oriented battle of field position. However if my playoff life depended on it, I'm taking Alex Smith over Brian Hoyer at quarterback any day of the week. Remember that Smith did win a playoff game for the 49ers in 2011. Plus I don't trust a Houston team that has seven out of their nine wins against Tampa Bay (6-10), Jacksonville twice (5-11), Tennessee twice (3-13), New Orleans (7-9), and Indianapolis (8-8). Smith could spend much of the game running for his life, being sacked 45 times during the regular season (tied for third). He did manage to rush for 498 yards, so he has the capability to keep plays alive. As long as KC can secure the ball and head coach Andy Reid doesn't have a complete Andy Reid meltdown, the Chiefs will move on.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

Division rivalries are always intriguing in the postseason. These teams split their regular season meetings, with each team winning on the road. Pittsburgh's 33-20 win in Week 13 was the last time we saw Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton on the field, who was knocked out of the game with a broken thumb on his throwing hand. Dalton has been ruled out for this game, so look for AJ McCarron to make his first playoff start. Cincinnati is better on the defensive side of the ball, and they have some effective offensive weapons in receiver A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert. Then again, so does Pittsburgh. Their passing game is one of the tops in the league with receivers Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger knows how to win a playoff game (10-5 postseason record). The same can’t be said for Dalton and head coach Marvin Lewis, who are 0-4 together in the postseason (Lewis is 0-6 overall). The Bengals recent history and inexperience at quarterback doesn't bode well for Cincy. Look for Pittsburgh to win a date against Denver.

Seattle Seahawks (-5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Never mind that the temperature during the game is forecasted to hover around zero degrees with a wind chill of -15. These teams bolster two of the top defenses in the league, but you would not have guessed that by their meeting in Week 13, where Seattle cruised to a 38-7 victory. It was the most points Minnesota had given up in a single game all season, thanks in large part to Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson’s three touchdowns (plus one rushing touchdown.). Since their loss to Arizona in Week 10, Wilson has thrown 24 touchdowns and only one interception, and the Seahawks are 6-1 over that span. It’s been defense and the running game that has kept Minnesota in ballgames, but their passing attack is one of the worst in the league. Teddy Bridgewater has been a serviceable quarterback in his second full NFL season, but he’s going to be overmatched in his first playoff game against an experienced Seattle team. If the Seahawks stack the box to contain Adrian Peterson and make Bridgewater try to beat them, prepare for a repeat performance of Week 13 from Seattle.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-1) over Green Bay Packers

Has there been a more inconsistent team this season than the Green Bay Packers? There are weeks they look great, then they completely fool you and muster only 13 points and lose at home against the Bears. This is definitely not the Green Bay team that started the season 6-0, finishing 4-6 down the stretch. Picking against Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers makes me think I should have my head examined, but he’s had one of the worst seasons of his career. He barely reached 3,800 yards passing and his quarterback rating for the season was 92.7, both the lowest figures since he became Green Bay’s full time starter in 2008. Running back Eddie Lacy looks like he actually put on weight during the course of the season, and the receiving core has underperformed. The Redskins however seem to be moving in the opposite direction. They were the beneficiaries of a putrid NFC East, going 7-3 down the stretch and finishing the season strong with a four game winning streak. Kirk Cousins has developed into an efficient quarterback that doesn’t make many mistakes, finishing fifth in the league with a quarterback rating of 101.6. A big reason is the emergence of tight end Jordan Reed, who finished the season with 87 receptions and 11 touchdowns. Plus all of the road teams can't win this weekend. Can they? The only home favorite wins its first playoff game since 2005.

So when football is all said and done and if you’re into rich and famous people bowing down and groveling over other rich and famous people, make sure to check out the Golden Globe awards Sunday night. As an extra bonus, we’ll end with some quick Hollywood predictions.

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama – Spotlight
Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical – The Martian
Best Actress, Drama – Cate Blanchett, Carol
Best Actor, Drama – Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Matt Damon, The Martian
Best Supporting Actress – Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Best Supporting Actor – Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Best Director – Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant

Television:

Best Series, Drama – Game of Thrones
Best Series, Comedy or Musical – Veep
Best Actress, Drama – Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
Best Actor, Drama – Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Best Supporting Actress – Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
Best Supporting Actor – Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline 


Saturday, January 3, 2015

Breaking Down 2015 Wild-Card Weekend

For an NFL season that was marred by controversy off the field that showed a level of incompetence that hasn’t been seen since the replacement ref fiasco of 2012, it did have its highlights. First it was the year of the rookie wide receiver. Buffalo’s Sammy Watkins, Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans, Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin, Philly’s Jordan Matthews, Miami’s Jarvis Landry and New Orleans’s Brandin Cooks all made impacts on their respective teams. And if you happened to have the foresight to pick up Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Odell Beckham Jr. on your fantasy team, you probably did pretty well. As for Jacksonville, Minnesota and Cleveland, which drafted quarterbacks this past year, there’s always the first round of the 2015 draft.

Second could this be the first year that a defensive player wins the MVP award since Lawrence Taylor did it in 1986? Houston’s J.J. Watt has made a strong case, and will definitely win Defensive Player of the Year. He finished with 20.5 sacks, a safety, a pick six, a fumble recovery returned for a touchdown, and three touchdowns on the offensive side of the ball. He was simply dominant and almost led the Texans to the playoffs with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett and Case Keenum sharing the quarterback duties. Unfortunately for Watt, Aaron Rodgers still plays in the league, who clinched the MVP trophy by playing through a calf injury to win the NFC North in Week 17.

As exciting as the regular season was, it's always raised to another level in the playoffs. Winners of six in a row, the Seattle Seahawks look primed to make another run towards the Super Bowl. Can the Seahawks be the first repeat champions since the Patriots in 2005? Can the Cowboys remove the stink of mediocrity that has lingered in recent years and win their first playoff game since 2009? Will the Detroit Lions win their first playoff game since the George Herbert Walker Bush administration? Will Andy Dalton finally win a playoff game period? All of our questions will be answered over the next couple of anticipated weekends. Let the tournament begin.

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Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Is it fair for a team that finished with an 11-5 record has to travel across the country to play a road game against a team that finished 7-8-1, just because that team won the abysmal NFC South? I didn’t think so. Even though Carolina won their last four games to sneak into the playoffs, don’t forget they lost six in a row before that, and they only have one win against a team with a winning record (Detroit), which took place way back in Week 2. The biggest question is should you back Arizona's third string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who was on the San Diego practice squad to begin the season, in a road playoff game? The prospect of it is downright terrifying, and I should have my head examined for doing so. But I see the defenses setting the tempo and this being a game of field position, with not much offense and points being scored. If Lindley plays a safe game and doesn’t turn the ball over, then Arizona can keep it close. Look for a field goal to decide this juggernaut.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Baltimore Ravens

When teams from the AFC North clash, it's usually a grudge match, especially this rivalry. The bad news for Pittsburgh is they're going to be without versatile running back Le’Veon Bell. In the end it’s not going to matter. Both teams do a good job defending the run, so look for the game to take to the air. If that is the case, would you rather put your money on Ben Roethlisberger or Joe Flacco? They both have playoff experience and Super Bowl titles under their belts, but I would give the edge to Roethlisberger. He had the best receiver in the game this season in Antonio Brown, who led the league in both receptions (129) and receiving yards (1,698). The last time these teams met in Week 9, Roethlisberger torched Baltimore's secondary for six touchdowns, and Bell was a non-factor running the football (10 carries, 20 yards). Baltimore has also reaped the benefit of an easy schedule, with eight of their ten wins coming against teams with a combined record of 42-85 (.331), and only one win against a team with a winning record (Pittsburgh in Week 2). I like the Steelers to advance.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

The Colts have the advantage of playing in the AFC South, which led to a handful of creampuff victories. The Bengals are molded out of the tough AFC North like the Steelers and Ravens. But they’re still the Bengals. In the playoffs quarterback Andy Dalton is 0-3 and head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-5. I don’t trust them as far as I can throw a Hail Mary pass. If the Colts can keep talented rookie running back Jeremy Hill in check (that's a big if), and force the Red Rifle to beat them, they should have a field day like they did against Cincinnati in Week 7, where they shut out the Bengals 27-0. On the opposing side the Colts can’t run the ball worth a lick, but that’s not how they’ve won football games. Andrew Luck led the league with 40 touchdowns, and the Bengals defense isn’t good enough to stop him. There’s also the potential that Cincinnati’s primary receiver A.J. Green won’t play in Sunday’s game. All signs point towards Indy moving on.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5) over Detroit Lions

I usually look forward to watching these two teams play only when there’s large portions of turkey involved. Both of these teams, and their quarterbacks, definitely have something to prove. For Detroit, they’re looking for their first postseason win since 1991, and Matthew Stafford his first playoff victory. Dallas is trying to forget their 1-6 playoff record since 1998, and all is on the line for Tony Romo. With a 1-3 playoff record that has plagued him for the later part of his career, he desperately needs a win. It’s a good thing for the Cowboys that Romo has been on fire lately. Dallas was 4-0 in December, and Romo has tossed twelve touchdowns to one interception during that span. But this game might be decided in the trenches. A big part of Dallas’s success this year has come from NFL leading rusher Demarco Murray. Can the strong offensive line of the Cowboys open up running lanes for Murray against Detroit’s number one rushing defense? It will be fun to watch. Also keep in mind that Stafford is 0-16 in his career (yikes!) on the road against teams that end up finishing with a winning record. And then there’s this:




It’s all a recipe for a Cowboys win and the playoff woes to continue for Detroit.