The old saying is that defense wins
championships. In recent history it was last year's Broncos, the Seahawks in
2014 and the Ravens in 2001 that won more on stopping opposing offenses than
necessarily putting points on the board. Then there's always the gold standard
of the 1986 Bears. Last weekend we saw the
Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks, the "number one" and number five
ranked defenses respectively, go bye bye. The league leader in forced
turnovers, the Kansas City Chiefs, also went down. We're left with a final four
that are all led by premier quarterbacks and have the potential to run up the
score. Could it have been scripted any better? The one theme for Sunday is that
defense will be at a premium, and the quarterback play could make all the
difference.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Green
Bay Packers (+5.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS
You could break down all of the
aspects of this game: coaching, the running game, the Packers secondary and how
they're going to contain Julio Jones, etc. But this matchup is all about
quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, and who is going to make the final
play to put his team in a position to win the game. Ryan continued his MVP
campaign last week by exploiting the Seahawks Earl Thomas-less secondary. Seattle
had to abandon Thomas Rawls and the running game that made them successful
against Detroit two weeks ago, and quarterback Russell Wilson couldn't keep up
with Ryan and the Falcons offense. Don't expect the same result against Green
Bay. Dallas rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott were both impressive in
their first playoff game, but it wasn't enough to stop Rodgers and his late
game heroics. The Packers are now winners of eight in a row and everyone is
hopping aboard the bandwagon, including this writer. Rodgers has made all of
the right plays to put his team in this position, and Atlanta's defense is no
threat to stop him. The same goes for Green Bay's defense against Ryan. This
game has all the makings of a shootout, but could come down to who can avoid
making a costly mistake. Look for Rodgers to edge out a nail biter against Ryan
and complete Green Bay's improbable run to Houston.
Packers 38, Falcons 35
NEW
ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Like the Packers the Steelers are
rolling, winners of their last nine. Last week against the Chiefs running back
Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown both gained over 100 yards but overall
the Steelers failed to find the end zone, and survived a failed two-point
conversion in the closing minutes. In Week 7 the Pats won 27-14 in Pittsburgh,
but the Steelers were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Can Big Ben make
the difference on the road in Foxboro? Based on his regular season road numbers
(9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 78.4 rating) it doesn't look promising. The
Pats last week against Houston played less than stellar football, turning the
ball over three times that included two interceptions by quarterback Tom Brady.
They still managed to pick off Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler three times
and win handily 34-16. It's hard to envision the Patriots making the same
multiple mistakes again, and if they do they will be in trouble giving the Steelers offense prime field position. What the Pats do have going them is
Brady's history against Pittsburgh. In nine career games he is 7-2 with 24 touchdowns,
3 interceptions and a 114.2 rating, including a 5-1 record against Steelers
head coach Mike Tomlin. Both defenses will have their hands full, but the Pats will
overcome Roethlisberger's road troubles and move on to Brady's seventh Super
Bowl appearance.
Patriots 34, Steelers 24
Currently the AFC is three point
favorites over the NFC for the Super Bowl, and based on that I'm taking the New
England Patriots over the Green Bay Packers. The Pats four Super Bowl wins were
decided by a total of 13 points, and this game will be no different. Rodgers
against Brady is a pinnacle matchup, and in the end the Pats complete their
revenge tour and stick it to Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL. Goodell
can avoid coming to Foxboro all he wants but he'll have to face the music and
hand the Lombardi Trophy to owner Robert Kraft when the Pats are crowned
champions.
Patriots 38, Packers 34
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