Saturday, January 21, 2017

An Offensive-Driven Championship Sunday

The old saying is that defense wins championships. In recent history it was last year's Broncos, the Seahawks in 2014 and the Ravens in 2001 that won more on stopping opposing offenses than necessarily putting points on the board. Then there's always the gold standard of the 1986 Bears.  Last weekend we saw the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks, the "number one" and number five ranked defenses respectively, go bye bye. The league leader in forced turnovers, the Kansas City Chiefs, also went down. We're left with a final four that are all led by premier quarterbacks and have the potential to run up the score. Could it have been scripted any better? The one theme for Sunday is that defense will be at a premium, and the quarterback play could make all the difference.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

You could break down all of the aspects of this game: coaching, the running game, the Packers secondary and how they're going to contain Julio Jones, etc. But this matchup is all about quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, and who is going to make the final play to put his team in a position to win the game. Ryan continued his MVP campaign last week by exploiting the Seahawks Earl Thomas-less secondary. Seattle had to abandon Thomas Rawls and the running game that made them successful against Detroit two weeks ago, and quarterback Russell Wilson couldn't keep up with Ryan and the Falcons offense. Don't expect the same result against Green Bay. Dallas rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott were both impressive in their first playoff game, but it wasn't enough to stop Rodgers and his late game heroics. The Packers are now winners of eight in a row and everyone is hopping aboard the bandwagon, including this writer. Rodgers has made all of the right plays to put his team in this position, and Atlanta's defense is no threat to stop him. The same goes for Green Bay's defense against Ryan. This game has all the makings of a shootout, but could come down to who can avoid making a costly mistake. Look for Rodgers to edge out a nail biter against Ryan and complete Green Bay's improbable run to Houston.

Packers 38, Falcons 35

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Like the Packers the Steelers are rolling, winners of their last nine. Last week against the Chiefs running back Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown both gained over 100 yards but overall the Steelers failed to find the end zone, and survived a failed two-point conversion in the closing minutes. In Week 7 the Pats won 27-14 in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Can Big Ben make the difference on the road in Foxboro? Based on his regular season road numbers (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 78.4 rating) it doesn't look promising. The Pats last week against Houston played less than stellar football, turning the ball over three times that included two interceptions by quarterback Tom Brady. They still managed to pick off Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler three times and win handily 34-16. It's hard to envision the Patriots making the same multiple mistakes again, and if they do they will be in trouble giving the Steelers offense prime field position. What the Pats do have going them is Brady's history against Pittsburgh. In nine career games he is 7-2 with 24 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 114.2 rating, including a 5-1 record against Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Both defenses will have their hands full, but the Pats will overcome Roethlisberger's road troubles and move on to Brady's seventh Super Bowl appearance.

Patriots 34, Steelers 24

Currently the AFC is three point favorites over the NFC for the Super Bowl, and based on that I'm taking the New England Patriots over the Green Bay Packers. The Pats four Super Bowl wins were decided by a total of 13 points, and this game will be no different. Rodgers against Brady is a pinnacle matchup, and in the end the Pats complete their revenge tour and stick it to Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL. Goodell can avoid coming to Foxboro all he wants but he'll have to face the music and hand the Lombardi Trophy to owner Robert Kraft when the Pats are crowned champions.

Patriots 38, Packers 34

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