An Offensive-Driven Championship Sunday

The old saying is that defense wins championships. In recent history it was last year's Broncos, the Seahawks in 2014 and the Ravens in 2001 that won more on stopping opposing offenses than necessarily putting points on the board. Then there's always the gold standard of the 1986 Bears.  Last weekend we saw the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks, the "number one" and number five ranked defenses respectively, go bye bye. The league leader in forced turnovers, the Kansas City Chiefs, also went down. We're left with a final four that are all led by premier quarterbacks and have the potential to run up the score. Could it have been scripted any better? The one theme for Sunday is that defense will be at a premium, and the quarterback play could make all the difference.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

You could break down all of the aspects of this game: coaching, the running game, the Packers secondary and how they're going to contain Julio Jones, etc. But this matchup is all about quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, and who is going to make the final play to put his team in a position to win the game. Ryan continued his MVP campaign last week by exploiting the Seahawks Earl Thomas-less secondary. Seattle had to abandon Thomas Rawls and the running game that made them successful against Detroit two weeks ago, and quarterback Russell Wilson couldn't keep up with Ryan and the Falcons offense. Don't expect the same result against Green Bay. Dallas rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott were both impressive in their first playoff game, but it wasn't enough to stop Rodgers and his late game heroics. The Packers are now winners of eight in a row and everyone is hopping aboard the bandwagon, including this writer. Rodgers has made all of the right plays to put his team in this position, and Atlanta's defense is no threat to stop him. The same goes for Green Bay's defense against Ryan. This game has all the makings of a shootout, but could come down to who can avoid making a costly mistake. Look for Rodgers to edge out a nail biter against Ryan and complete Green Bay's improbable run to Houston.

Packers 38, Falcons 35

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Like the Packers the Steelers are rolling, winners of their last nine. Last week against the Chiefs running back Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown both gained over 100 yards but overall the Steelers failed to find the end zone, and survived a failed two-point conversion in the closing minutes. In Week 7 the Pats won 27-14 in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Can Big Ben make the difference on the road in Foxboro? Based on his regular season road numbers (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 78.4 rating) it doesn't look promising. The Pats last week against Houston played less than stellar football, turning the ball over three times that included two interceptions by quarterback Tom Brady. They still managed to pick off Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler three times and win handily 34-16. It's hard to envision the Patriots making the same multiple mistakes again, and if they do they will be in trouble giving the Steelers offense prime field position. What the Pats do have going them is Brady's history against Pittsburgh. In nine career games he is 7-2 with 24 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 114.2 rating, including a 5-1 record against Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Both defenses will have their hands full, but the Pats will overcome Roethlisberger's road troubles and move on to Brady's seventh Super Bowl appearance.

Patriots 34, Steelers 24

Currently the AFC is three point favorites over the NFC for the Super Bowl, and based on that I'm taking the New England Patriots over the Green Bay Packers. The Pats four Super Bowl wins were decided by a total of 13 points, and this game will be no different. Rodgers against Brady is a pinnacle matchup, and in the end the Pats complete their revenge tour and stick it to Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL. Goodell can avoid coming to Foxboro all he wants but he'll have to face the music and hand the Lombardi Trophy to owner Robert Kraft when the Pats are crowned champions.

Patriots 38, Packers 34

Championship Weekend

So let’s recap.

First Baltimore Raven head coach John Harbaugh blamed the New England Patriots for trickery and deception for some of the Pats' substitutions during Baltimore’s 35-31 loss in Foxborough last weekend. A few days later, he said it was about the “mechanics of the officiating” that was the issue. Either way, isn’t the whole point of football for the offense to deceive the defense so they can move the ball down the field and eventually into the end zone?

Speaking of angry Baltimore Ravens…

Former linebacker Ray Lewis made the following comments about Patriots quarterback Tom Brady this past week on Steven A Smith’s Sirius XM radio show:

“When we—the first time we created something a tuck rule, it’s the only reason we know—I’m just being honest!—the only reason we know who Tom Brady is, because of a tuck rule!”

So Tom Brady wouldn’t have won three Super Bowls, two Super Bowl MVPs, two league MVPs, twelve division titles (most by a quarterback), nineteen playoff wins (also most by a quarterback) and been elected to ten Pro Bowls if not for the tuck rule? Lewis is the same man who said in 2011 that crime would rise if the NFL lockout affected the regular season and fans couldn’t watch football on Sundays. And ESPN pays him to be an analyst? We all know what Ray Lewis was famous for early in his career, and it certainly wasn’t for football.

You knew there had to be something wrong with Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, right? During the last month of the season, Peyton was very un-Peyton like, throwing for three touchdowns and six interceptions, and it carried over into the playoffs. It turns out he was playing with a torn right quad muscle. Manning has been notorious for losing in the postseason, but he hadn't played as bad as he did last Sunday since his four interception game against New England in 2003. His eleven wins in the playoffs are marred by his now thirteen losses, with nine one-and-done appearances. After last weekend, any Brady and Manning argument can be put to bed.

The biggest question will be whether Manning returns for his 18^th season. He will be 39 in March and already has four neck surgeries under his belt. As a Pats fan, there was nothing I enjoyed more than reveling in defeating the Colts, especially in the playoffs, and seeing the Manning face make an appearance. At the same time, I grew to respect him as a player, and was lucky enough to see one of the greatest quarterback rivalries in all of modern sports. Regardless of what Manning does next year, there's no doubt that he will go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.

Welcome back to Parks and Recreation as it embarks on its thirteen episode farewell season. So far we learned in 2017 that Kevin James has rebooted the Jason  Bourne series, Shia LaBeouf designs wedding dresses, the Cubs have won the World Series, and Jerry now goes by Terry. And what could Leslie and Ron’s feud, only referred to as “Morning Star”, be all about? I’m dying to know. Unfortunately like many previous shows of Parks and Rec’s caliber, the cast has become too renowned to continue with the beloved satirical comedy, and it will surely be missed. I mean Andy Dwyer is now an action star that saves the galaxy. Who saw that coming?

And congratulations to the Ohio State Buckeyes for winning the national championship, proving that I’m not only lousy at picking professional football games, but college as well.

So after making that point, let’s try and predict this weekend’s championship games, featuring arguably the four best quarterbacks in the NFL.

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Indianapolis Colts

So what’s at stake in this game? For Tom Brady, this marks his ninth AFC Championship game, and the Patriots fourth in a row. A win will send Brady to the Super Bowl for a record sixth time for a quarterback, where he would be looking to tie Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw with a fourth Super Bowl victory. For quarterback Andrew Luck, he is beginning to show why the Indianapolis Colts cut Peyton Manning to draft him first overall in 2012. For a team that has no running game and an average defense at best, Luck has done all of the little things necessary to lead the Colts to his first AFC Championship game. Unfortunately for Luck the Pats have owned him, going 3-0 lifetime against him with an average margin of victory of 20 points, including a 42-20 win in Indianapolis in Week 11. This game shouldn’t be any different. Last week the Patriots came back from two 14 point deficits against a defense that's much better than Indy’s with a quick and precise passing game. In Week 11 against this same Indy team, the Pats ran for 246 yards. They are resilient, and head coach Bill Belichick will scheme any game plan necessary to win. They can beat you with the pass or the run. On defense the Pats pass rush is lacking, so Luck will have the opportunity to have a solid game on Sunday, but I don’t see any scenario where the Colts win. New England moves on the Glendale.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

These teams met in Week 1, where the Seahawks won at home 36-16. That was a millennium ago. Sure Seattle hasn’t lost since before Thanksgiving, and their defense is looking as good as ever. During their seven game win streak, the Seahawks faced Arizona (twice), San Francisco (twice), Philly, St. Louis and Carolina. Do you see an offensive juggernaut or a top tier quarterback like Aaron Rodgers on any of those teams? I didn’t think so. Rodgers’s decision making and execution this season have been almost flawless, which he will need to be if he wants to beat the Seahawks defense. On the other side Seattle back Marshawn Lynch should have no problem running the ball, but quarterback Russell Wilson and the passing game could struggle, especially if linebacker Clay Matthews is chasing Wilson around the field all day. Seattle also does have the advantage of the home field crowd, but Rodgers will keep this game close. Although the Packers cover, the Seahawks win to reach their second straight Super Bowl.

As for the Super Bowl, I picked Seattle over the Patriots in my season preview. Early predictions have Seattle being favorites by a field goal, but I’m going to flip my original choice and take the Pats to win on a neutral field. Brady and Belichick do it one more time to put an exclamation point on their legacy.