Breaking Down Division Weekend (With a Little History)

Here’s a few things that have significant anniversaries/birthdays this month:

Fifty years ago a little English rock band released their premiere album in the United States. You might have heard of them. The album Led Zeppelin made its debut to the world on January 12^th, 1969. Upon its initial release, Rolling Stone magazine labeled Jimmy Page “an extraordinarily proficient blues guitarist” in their review of the album. They then went on to say:

“Unfortunately, he is also a very limited producer and a writer of weak, unimaginative songs, and the Zeppelin album suffers from his having both produced it and written most of it”

They certainly missed the mark on that one.

Fans of fossil rock know Jimmy Page went on to write some of the most notable guitar riffs in rock history, starting with the album’s opening track, “Good Times Bad Times.” The album itself is a classic staple, incorporating a hard rock and blues sound that would define the band over the next decade. Not to mention introducing a genre that would influence countless bands since.

Jimmy Page also happened to turn 75 on January 9^th.

  

Happy 45^th to the sitcom Happy Days, which premiered on ABC on January 15^th, 1974 and ran for eleven seasons. Not only was the show immensely popular and gave us one of the coolest television characters of all time in Arthur “The Fonz” Fonzarelli, it made Ron Howard a household name and helped launch his directing career, spawned spinoffs Laverne & Shirley (RIP Penny Marshall), Mork & Mindy, and even Joanie Loves Chachi, created the phrase “jump the shark,” and gave us the setting for Weezer’s “Buddy Holly” video. Not too bad.

On January 9^th, 1984, Van Halen released their sixth studio album, remarkably titled 1984. Now fans might argue that it’s not their best record, but at the time it certainly became their most successful, introducing synth pop riffs to Eddie Van Halen’s signature guitar. During the early days of MTV, cheesy videos from this album were on a consistent rotation that they were burned into my young memory forever. For those who might have missed the boat:

Not only was 1984 a defining album of the 80s, it marked the end of David Lee Roth as lead singer of the band, paving the way for the Van Hagar era. If you’re not a Van Halen fan, trust me when I say it was all downhill from there.

The Sopranos made its debut on HBO on January 10^th, 1999. As part of its 20^th anniversary, HBO2 has been airing a marathon that wrapped this past Thursday. For anyone who watched the show in its heyday that might have casually tuned in to an episode and ended up binging a whole season will be reminded of why it still holds up as the best television drama of all time.

HBO

I mentioned in a previous post, and it’s been said countless times before, that The Sopranos was the first show to give us an antihero in Tony Soprano that viewers could not wait to tune in to see every Sunday, rooting for him even though we knew he was a ruthless mob boss. Without The Sopranos, there might have never been Walter White, Dexter Morgan, Don Draper or Ray Donovan. If you’ve never seen an episode, do yourself a favor and carve out some time over the next couple of winter months and check it out. You’ll be happy that you did.

And finally for you hardcore history buffs, Thomas Paine's Common Sense was first published on January 10th, 1776, advocating for the American colonies to seek independence from Great Britain. It was essentially the nations first best seller, influencing the signers of the Declaration of Independence and the founders of this great nation.

Before I dive into this weekend’s matchups, it should be noted that, according to OddShark, over the last 15 playoff games going into last season, the underdogs are 14-1 against the spread. Pretty crazy, right?

Will that trend continue this weekend? I guess you’ll have to force yourself to watch some football over the next couple of days to find out.

Indianapolis Colts (+5,5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last week against the Texans the Colts started like gangbusters, but failed to score in the second half after opening up a 21-0 lead in the second quarter. They're going to have to put up more points against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the top offense in the league if they're going to win this game. And they should be able to. Where the Chiefs strengths lie on the offensive side of the ball, the defense is a different story, finishing second to last during the regular season. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck should be able to exploit this weakness behind his strong offensive line. The Chiefs also seemed to have lost a little of their edge after releasing running back Kareem Hunt before Week 13, losing two out of their last three. Mahomes will be under a microscope after tossing over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns this season. Will the second-year quarterback succumb to the pressure as his young contemporaries Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky did last week? If he plays with the same poise as he did during the regular season, he should be fine. However the Colts are hot, winners of 10 of their last 11. Their defense won't be able to completely contain Mahomes, but should be able to keep it close, especially if the weather plays its part. There's also the Andy Reid factor, who is 1-4 as the Chiefs head coach in the post-season. Look for Luck and the Colts to pull off the upset. 

Colts 34, Chiefs 31

Dallas Cowboys (+7) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Has anyone noticed the recent play of Rams quarterback Jared Goff? He finished the season by throwing four touchdowns against the lowly 49ers, but in the four games leading up to Week 17 he had only two touchdowns and six interceptions, which included back to back losses to Chicago on the road and Philly at home. Losing safety blanket Cooper Kupp for the season after Week 10 certainly did not help. The Rams still have running back Todd Gurley, who might struggle against the Cowboy’s defense, which excels at stopping the run. The same can’t be said for the Rams defense, which allowed 122.3 yards per game on the ground during the regular season. That should bode well for running back Ezekiel Elliot, who torched the Seahawks for 137 yards last week. The Dallas defense and their ability to control the clock should keep it close, but Rams coach Sean McVay has been anointed the new offensive genius of the NFL, so much so that newly hired coaches are being referred to as his friend in their team’s press releases. Seriously. Let’s see if McVay can live up to the hype and win his first playoff game, where there’s sure to be an abundance of Cowboys fans making plenty of noise in the Coliseum.

Rams 27, Cowboys 24

Los Angeles Chargers (+4) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Last week I made a point that the Dallas Cowboys benefited in a mediocre conference. If there’s a worse conference than the NFC East, it’s the AFC East. The Patriots beat up the weak competition and were darlings of their division again, winning their eleventh straight division title. They did have early season wins against playoff teams Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Chicago. They also suffered road losses to Jacksonville, Detroit and to Miami on a fluke lateral play to end the game that ultimately cost them the number one seed. Not typical New England Patriot football. Many in the national media believe these are signs that the Patriots dynasty is coming to a close, and it very well could be. Tight end Rob Gronkowski looks like all of his injuries are catching up with him, quarterback Tom Brady has shown signs of trepidation from pressure in the pocket, and reliable wide receiver Julian Edelman led the league in dropped passes this season. Not a good sign for this tough matchup for the Pats. Chargers defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are as good as they come, and the Los Angeles defense as a whole registered seven sacks against a putrid Ravens offense last week. Will L.A. be hindered from a physical game in Baltimore to fly across country again to play in below freezing temperatures? Perhaps. But the Chargers haven’t been bothered from where they’ve had to play this year, going 8-1 on the road with last week’s win. They have yet, however, to play in Foxboro, where the Pats were undefeated this season. Brady and coach Bill Belichick haven’t lost a playoff game in Foxboro since 2012, winners of 9 straight post-season games at home. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers against the Patriots in his career? 1-7, including 0-4 in Foxboro. This game could define Rivers’ legacy, and everyone outside of New England will be rooting for him. It’s unfortunate the national audience is going to be let down. The Patriots win a close one with the home field edge.

Patriots 24, Chargers 21

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-8) over Philadelphia Eagles

Did the Eagles win their wild-card game last week, or did the Chicago Bears give it away? If Cody Parkey’s kick bounces in the opposite direction, then Foles magic comes to a tragic end. Granted the Eagles came back on the road against a tough defense, but they were also going against Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who didn’t rise to the pressure of his first playoff game. Containing Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the rest of the New Orleans offense is going to be a different story, especially in the Superdome. Not including their throwaway game in Week 17, the Saints average 37 points a game at home. Is Philly going to be able to keep up? Not to mention Saints head coach Sean Peyton’s little motivation tactic from earlier this week.

A little unorthodox, but highly effective. We’ll soon see if it drives the Saints to a Super Bowl title.

Saints 30, Eagles 17