In my divisional round post last week, I provided a statistic that the underdogs covered against the spread
in 14 out of the last 15 playoff games. Out of the four games last weekend, the
New Orleans Saints were the only home favorite not to cover. This is fairly
typical in the divisional round, where home teams are 21-7 straight up since 2011.
I would say as football fans we benefited from the results of last week
following this pattern, providing the best matchups the league could have asked
for on Championship Sunday. Whichever teams come out on top, it’s not going to
be a boring Super Bowl. Let’s just hope these games can live up to the hype.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Los Angeles Rams
The makeup of these teams is
very similar: offensive minded coaches with multiple playmakers that can put
points on the board. Rams quarterback Jared Goff didn’t have a strong game stat
wise against the Dallas Cowboys last week, but it didn’t matter. Running backs
Toddy Gurley and C.J. Anderson (really?) torched the Cowboys defense for a
combined 238 yards and 3 touchdowns. Can they repeat this performance against
the Saints defense that was second in stopping the run during the regular
season? Indoors on turf will certainly help. However, the Superdome is where
the Saints thrive, where head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees are
6-0 in home playoff games. Including last week’s game against Philly, Brees has
been near perfect at home, throwing 23 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Away
from Los Angeles, Goff has 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. If the Rams have
to keep on relying on the run game, the Saints have a slight edge on the
defensive side of the ball. In what has all the makings of a shootout, give me
Brees and the best wideout in the game Michael Thomas. Look for the Saints to
move on to Atlanta.
Saints 38, Rams 34
New England Patriots (+3) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Last week I thought that the
Indianapolis Colts were going to upset the Kansas City Chiefs. I factored the
Colts recent record (10 wins in their last 11 games) and thought quarterback
Andrew Luck and Indy’s offensive line could exploit Kansas City’s defense. What
I didn’t take into account was a dome team playing in cold weather on the road,
and that during their hot streak Indy defeated quarterbacks Derek Anderson, Derek
Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott and Eli
Manning. Not exactly Murderer’s Row. Meanwhile Chiefs quarterback Patrick
Mahomes showed no signs of nerves in his first playoff game. The Patriots
silenced all of the haters by easily dismantling the L.A. Chargers, with the
offense looking like typical Pats football. The problem this week is quarterback Tom Brady
and company won’t be in the friendly confines of Foxboro. The Pats were 3-5 on
the road this season, and in those five losses their defense allowed opposing
running backs (Jaylen Samuels, Brandon Bolden, and Kerryon Johnson, just to
name a few) to torch them for 111.6 yards per game. Not a good sign for a team that
hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2006 going against the number one offense
in the league. But Brady’s “everyone thinks we suck” comment after the game proves
he still plays with a chip on his shoulder. Do I really want to pick against
the G.O.A.T. when he’s an underdog? Plus in the coaching matchup, I’ll take Bill
Belichick over Andy Reid, who is 1-4 in Conference Championship games. If the
Pats can continue to keep the ground game clicking and control the clock, which they just
showed they can do against a better Charger defense, they can pull off the road
upset. Look for the ball in Brady’s hands with the game on the line in the
fourth quarter, leading the Pats to a matchup against Drew Brees in the Super
Bowl.
Now who wouldn’t want to see
that?
Patriots 31, Chiefs 28
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