Betting on the 2014 Emmys

Has there honestly ever been a better time for television, especially when it comes to drama? Just look at the shows nominated for outstanding drama in this year’s Emmy race. When all is said and done, Breaking Bad and Mad Men could arguably be considered two of the top dramas to ever grace the small screen. Game of Thrones isn’t far behind, and time is only going to tell with True Detective. In addition to this current era of top notch programming, we never again have to miss an episode with the help of DVR, video on demand and streaming services. Even Netflix has entered the Emmy race, first with House of Cards and now with Orange Is the New Black. Who would have thought?

How did television come to the point where it’s surpassed movies as our main source of entertainment? The 80s gave us Hill Street Blues, which forever changed the landscape of not only police shows but television itself with its character depth and innovative camera work. During the 90s, there were the network standards Law & Order and ER along with the supernatural and bizarre such as The X-Files and the short lived Twin Peaks. These were all quality shows, but it was HBO that pushed the envelope and paved the way for the modern drama.

In July 1997, HBO aired its first hour-long dramatic television series about Oswald State Correctional Facility and the inmates of the unit known as Emerald City. Oz to say the least was the first show of its kind. Holding nothing back while bringing us into the violent and insane world of prison life, to describe it as deep and disturbing is an understatement. Although it wasn’t as popular as its eventual HBO contemporaries, it reached depths that could never be touched on by any mainstream network series.

Two years later, HBO continued in the drama category and premiered The Sopranos. After that came The Wire. If The Sopranos is the greatest drama series of all time, then The Wire is number two, (or vice versa depending on whom you ask). But while not only being immensely popular, The Sopranos provided us with a likeable protagonist that just happened to be a narcissistic and sociopathic New Jersey mob boss, being the first television antihero of his kind. Without Tony Soprano, we might have never been introduced to Vic Mackey, Jax Teller, Dexter Morgan, Nucky Thompson, Don Draper, Walter White, Ray Donovan or Frank Underwood.

During this upcoming television season beginning in September, we will say goodbye to Boardwalk Empire, Sons of Anarchy, The Newsroom, Justified, and eventually Mad Men next spring. With the way things are going, there’s sure to be new and addicting dramas that will take their place and make their way into the Emmy spotlight. It’s only a matter of time. For now, we have all of Monday night’s nominees. To add more intrigue to the evening, let’s look at the odds and make some picks in some of the major categories. Let the drama unfold.

(Odds figured by Bovada)

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Allison Janney, Mom: 1/8

Kate Mulgrew, Orange Is the New Black: 7/2

Julie Bowen, Modern Family: 30/1

Anna Chlumsky, Veep: 50/1

Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live: 50/1

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory: 50/1

Janney is definitely one of the highlights of Mom, the sitcom about a mother and daughter that argue and bond with each other between their trips to AA. Last weekend at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, Janney won for her guest role in Masters of Sex, adding to her four previous wins for her work in The West Wing. The odds are in her favor, but I try to look for a relatively decent payout if I’m making any type of bet. That’s why I’m going with Mulgrew for her portrayal of Galina “Red” Reznikov, the Russian prison cook at Litchfield Penitentiary. Red is the mother figure to many the other inmates, displaying a strong exterior that deeply cares for her girls. The show has an exceptional ensemble case, and Mulgrew is one of its standouts. At the same awards that Janney won for Masters of Sex, Uzo Aduba won for outstanding guest actress in a comedy series as Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren in Orange Is the New Black (although she’s more of a cast regular than a guest actress). Mulgrew will keep the winning streak alive for the Netflix series.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine: 2/3

Tony Hale, Veep: 12/5

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family: 5/1

Ty Burrell, Modern Family: 12/1

Fred Amisen, Portlandia: 20/1

Adam Driver, Girls: 50/1

Who doesn’t enjoy a dose of life advice from Phil Dunphy? I would give Burrell the edge over his co-star Ferguson and the rest of the nominees. All of them except for Braugher. Not normally known for comedic roles, Braugher is hysterical as gay police captain Ray Holt of the 99th Precinct in Brooklyn, New York. His deadpan facial expressions define his character, never revealing if the strict captain is happy, sad or genuinely displeased with his ragtag group of detectives. It’s not a substantial payout, but at least your money is safe. This should be the first recognition of many for Braugher as he continues in this role.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad: 1/4

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife: 5/1

Joanne Froggatt, Downtown Abbey: 10/1

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men: 20/1

Lena Headey, Game of Thrones: 20/1

Maggie Smith, Downtown Abbey: 20/1

The Television Academy gave the nomination this year to Lena Headey for Game of Thrones instead of last year’s nominee Emilia Clarke, and deservedly so. Although Headey’s character Cersei Lannister may be the most dislikable queen on television, she had to endure the death of her son and her troubled incestuous relationship with her twin brother. Headey did a masterful job of channeling Cersei’s anger and torment all season long, whether it was directed at one of her brothers or her father. As good as Headey was, the award will go to the heavy favorite Anna Gunn as the equally anguished Skyler White. This will be the last round of awards for Breaking Bad, and the show went out on top, highlighted by the ‘Ozymandias’ episode. This was all of the actors at their best, including Skylar’s emotional confrontations with her sister, son and epic final face-off with her husband. Gunn will take home her second straight Emmy in this category.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad: 2/5

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones: 5/2

Josh Charles, The Good Wife: 9/1

Jon Voight, Ray Donovan: 15/1

Mandy Patinkin, Homeland: 40/1

Jim Carter, Downtown Abbey: 50/1

Last year I picked Paul to win, only to be upstaged by Bobby Cannavale for his role as Gyp Rosetti in Boardwalk Empire (really???). Although Paul is the favorite to win again, he’s going to miss out for the second straight year. You have to love Jon Voight as the self-centered and neglectful father Mickey Donovan, who also beat out Paul at the Golden Globes in January. The odds for Voight are very tempting, but I’m going to take a chance on Dinklage. Spending most of his time in a dungeon cell, this season might be Dinklage’s finest yet as Tyrion Lannister. His final “confession” at his trial in ‘The Laws of Gods and Men’ episode belongs in the same time capsule as his speech from ‘Blackwater’ in Season Two. There are a lot of contenders here, but the award belongs to Dinklage.      

  

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep: 1/10

Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black: 6/1

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation: 10/1

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie, 40/1

Lena Dunham, Girls, 50/1

Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly: 50/1

I’m going to miss Parks and Recreation this fall. The final season of NBC’s last great comedy series (sorry Community, you got a raw deal) is scheduled to return mid-season, so this isn’t Amy Poehler’s swan song. You also can’t ignore Schilling here, whose portrayal of Piper Chapman as she succumbs to the depths and culture of prison life is so authentic. The payout odds make Schilling a nice choice. It’s too bad that Louis-Dreyfus is still at the top of her game as the often misconstrued Vice President Selina Meyer, providing some of the best one-liners and insults you’ll find on television. Louis-Dreyfus has won this award two years in a row, and she’s not ready to give it up just yet.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory: 5/9

Ricky Gervais, Derek: 3/1

Louis C.K., Louie: 7/1

William H. Macy, Shameless: 7/1

Don Cheadle, House of Lies: 30/1

Matt LeBlanc, Episodes: 30/1

I said this last year and I’ll say it again: everyone loves Sheldon Cooper. Parsons has won this award three years straight, and similar to Louis-Dreyfus he’s not ready to hand it over. I like the odds on Louis C.K. and Macy, but I don’t see any of the other nominees pulling off the upset. Your bet is safe with Parsons.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Robin Wright, House of Cards: 4/5

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife: 3/2

Claire Danes, Homeland: 11/1

Kerry Washington, Scandal: 13/1

Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex: 15/1

Michelle Dockery, Downtown Abbey: 33/1

I always felt as long as Claire Danes continued to play troubled CIA agent Carrie Mathison that she would be a lock for this award. The suspense of Homeland has slipped since its first season (it’s not even nominated for Outstanding Drama Series), and as a result so has Danes. All signs point towards Wright as the manipulating and power hungry politician’s wife Claire Underwood to walk away with the award, but I’m picking the long shot Caplan. As Virginia Johnson, she plays a challenging character researching a topic that was controversial and unheard of for its time. Caplan brings strength to the character that was synonymous with Johnson. Look for the first time nominee to win the Emmy.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Matthew McConaughey, True Detective: 1/3

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad: 3/1

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards: 9/1

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom: 30/1

Woody Harrelson, True Detective: 30/1

Jon Hamm, Mad Men: 50/1

Talk about heavyweights. This is one of the best groupings of leading characters you will ever see, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these actors walk away with the award. I could make the same argument for Cranston as I did for Gunn, awarding him one last time for his role as drug kingpin Walter White. Unfortunately for Cranston he’s up against McConaughey, who was a marvel as the troubled detective Rust Cohle. Filled with his unsettling views on life and death, Cohle was a character for the ages, and barring a miracle we will never see him portrayed again. McConaughey is going to keep his hot streak rolling by adding an Emmy to his fresh Oscar win.   

Outstanding Comedy Series

Orange Is the New Black: 3/2

Modern Family: 2/1

Veep: 4/1

Louie: 10/1

The Big Bang Theory: 10/1

Silicon Valley: 30/1

The safe bet for the past four years has been Modern Family, going for its fifth straight win in this category. Unlike Louis-Dreyfus and Parsons, there’s going to be a new winner this year. I thoroughly enjoy Silicon Valley, which is well written, clever and hilarious. The underrated newcomer doesn’t have the popularity to overtake Modern Family, but Orange Is the New Black does. Modern Family, although still enjoyable, leads us through the same routine every week. It’s not as fresh as it used to be. Orange on the other hand shuffles multiple plot lines and delves into the lives of its many characters, keeping viewers engrossed in every one of them. There are not many shows on television that do that. Although it’s not your typical laugh out loud comedy, Orange Is the New Black will dethrone the reigning champ, and has the capability to hold the title for years to come.                 

Outstanding Drama Series

Breaking Bad: 1/5

True Detective: 7/1

Game of Thrones: 8/1

House of Cards: 9/1

Downtown Abbey: 50/1

Mad Men: 50/1

It would almost be a sacrilege to not acknowledge Breaking Bad for its last season and for that reason alone, it might take the award. But for my final bet of the evening, I’m laying my chips down on True Detective. Over the course of its inaugural season, it only became better week after week, drawing us in with its excellent writing and character development (including the Louisiana countryside). The six minute uncut single shot at the end of the “Who Goes There” episode is so incredible that I had to re-watch it again to confirm that I just witnessed it. True Detective has the potential to be an Emmy contender as it moves forward, but it’s going to be difficult to repeat its excellent first season. It was the best drama and one of the most talked about shows this past year, and it will earn the top prize of the evening.