An Offensive-Driven Championship Sunday

The old saying is that defense wins championships. In recent history it was last year's Broncos, the Seahawks in 2014 and the Ravens in 2001 that won more on stopping opposing offenses than necessarily putting points on the board. Then there's always the gold standard of the 1986 Bears.  Last weekend we saw the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks, the "number one" and number five ranked defenses respectively, go bye bye. The league leader in forced turnovers, the Kansas City Chiefs, also went down. We're left with a final four that are all led by premier quarterbacks and have the potential to run up the score. Could it have been scripted any better? The one theme for Sunday is that defense will be at a premium, and the quarterback play could make all the difference.

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Green Bay Packers (+5.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

You could break down all of the aspects of this game: coaching, the running game, the Packers secondary and how they're going to contain Julio Jones, etc. But this matchup is all about quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, and who is going to make the final play to put his team in a position to win the game. Ryan continued his MVP campaign last week by exploiting the Seahawks Earl Thomas-less secondary. Seattle had to abandon Thomas Rawls and the running game that made them successful against Detroit two weeks ago, and quarterback Russell Wilson couldn't keep up with Ryan and the Falcons offense. Don't expect the same result against Green Bay. Dallas rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott were both impressive in their first playoff game, but it wasn't enough to stop Rodgers and his late game heroics. The Packers are now winners of eight in a row and everyone is hopping aboard the bandwagon, including this writer. Rodgers has made all of the right plays to put his team in this position, and Atlanta's defense is no threat to stop him. The same goes for Green Bay's defense against Ryan. This game has all the makings of a shootout, but could come down to who can avoid making a costly mistake. Look for Rodgers to edge out a nail biter against Ryan and complete Green Bay's improbable run to Houston.

Packers 38, Falcons 35

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Like the Packers the Steelers are rolling, winners of their last nine. Last week against the Chiefs running back Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown both gained over 100 yards but overall the Steelers failed to find the end zone, and survived a failed two-point conversion in the closing minutes. In Week 7 the Pats won 27-14 in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Can Big Ben make the difference on the road in Foxboro? Based on his regular season road numbers (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 78.4 rating) it doesn't look promising. The Pats last week against Houston played less than stellar football, turning the ball over three times that included two interceptions by quarterback Tom Brady. They still managed to pick off Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler three times and win handily 34-16. It's hard to envision the Patriots making the same multiple mistakes again, and if they do they will be in trouble giving the Steelers offense prime field position. What the Pats do have going them is Brady's history against Pittsburgh. In nine career games he is 7-2 with 24 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 114.2 rating, including a 5-1 record against Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. Both defenses will have their hands full, but the Pats will overcome Roethlisberger's road troubles and move on to Brady's seventh Super Bowl appearance.

Patriots 34, Steelers 24

Currently the AFC is three point favorites over the NFC for the Super Bowl, and based on that I'm taking the New England Patriots over the Green Bay Packers. The Pats four Super Bowl wins were decided by a total of 13 points, and this game will be no different. Rodgers against Brady is a pinnacle matchup, and in the end the Pats complete their revenge tour and stick it to Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL. Goodell can avoid coming to Foxboro all he wants but he'll have to face the music and hand the Lombardi Trophy to owner Robert Kraft when the Pats are crowned champions.

Patriots 38, Packers 34

Breaking Down the Divisional Playoffs

The NFL has a habit of shooting themselves in the foot.

The league announced on Thursday to no surprise that the San Diego Chargers will be moving to Los Angeles next season. Even though the team had one of the lowest attendance averages in 2016 there has been football in San Diego for 56 years. The move boiled down to a billionaire owner that couldn’t strike a deal with the city to build a new stadium. So for the time being the Chargers will play in a stadium that has a smaller capacity than Fenway Park in a city with now two lousy teams that will most certainly underperform in the L.A. market (and they wonder why ratings are down). Seems like a solid plan.

As most expected Wild-Card Weekend produced four less than stellar games, which was soon forgotten by the College Football National Championship. The game not only displayed marquee players and an exciting finish, but thanks to this guy it’s in the discussion of one of the greatest games of all time (take that Ed Hochuli). 

Now only if college football can figure out a way to keep the game under the four-hour mark.

With last weekend’s mess in the rearview, we can only hope the following matchups can live up to their potential. If not next week’s presidential inauguration should make for some good theater.

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ATLANTA FALCONS (-4.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Thomas Rawls did his best Beast Mode impersonation last Saturday as he shredded the Detroit defense for 161 rushing yards. Anyone that allowed Rawls to take up a roster spot on their fantasy team can tell you this was certainly his best game of the season. The defense was also reminiscent of its dominant self from recent years, keeping Detroit’s scoring to only two field goals. So is Seattle really as good as they played or was Detroit overmatched and probably shouldn’t have been in the playoffs? I mean wouldn’t have Tampa Bay or even Washington given the Seahawks a better game? Based on Seattle’s inconsistent play down the stretch of the regular season, I’m playing the ‘Detroit are total frauds’ card. Seattle’s offense has a chance to keep the momentum going, as Atlanta’s defense was less than stellar during the season, finishing 25^th in the league. The Falcons did all of their damage on the offensive side of the ball, where they averaged a league best 33.8 points per game. Quarterback Matt Ryan is the front-runner for league MVP after tossing 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns with a rating of 117.1, all career highs. Can Seattle’s defense step up for a second week in a row to keep Atlanta’s offense at bay? A couple of years ago I would have considered it. Ryan has been on a roll at the right time, throwing 11 touchdowns and no picks over the last month of the season, and the Seahawks won’t be in the friendly confines of home. 

Atlanta 28 Seattle 21

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16) over Houston Texans

Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler wasn’t terrible against Oakland last weekend. He protected the ball, made some plays, and even ran for a touchdown. On the other side Raiders rookie quarterback Connor Cook was a deer in the headlights and imploded in his first career start against the Texans defense. But how the tides have turned. At home Osweiler was 6-1 during the regular season and 2-6 on the road, which included a 27-0 loss in Foxboro in Week 3 against third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. In Houston’s three previous trips to Foxboro, which includes the same Divisional Round matchup in 2013, the Texans have lost 41-28, 42-14 and 40-7. Do you see a pattern occurring here? Since returning from his four-game suspension Pats quarterback Tom Brady has never looked better at age 39, throwing 28 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. The New England defense has come on strong as well, allowing roughly 12 points per game since their last lost against Seattle in Week 10. Sure the Pats defense squared off against the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff and Trevor Siemian, but Houston’s offense was also one of the worst in the league (17.4 points per game). The pattern will continue as the Pats win big at home. I just hope that J.J. Watt makes the trip and is on the Houston sideline. We definitely need to see him dominate another broadcast.

New England 38, Houston 10

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers big three of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown looked unstoppable last week against Miami, which is always a good sign. They are now riding an eight game winning streak, and the defense is starting to play better. Can Pittsburgh repeat their Week 4 performance where they thrashed this same Chiefs team 43-14? That game was played at Heinz Field, where Roethlisberger has thrown 22 touchdowns compared to 7 interceptions, but away from home those numbers are dramatically different (9 touchdowns, 8 interceptions). Roethlisberger’s road woes are just one of the factors favoring Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is always a tough place to play, and the crowd is going to be extra amped for their first playoff game in six years. The Chiefs defense was pretty imposing during the regular season, leading the league with 33 forced turnovers. Head coach Andy Reid is miraculously 16-2 in his career in the week following a bye, including 3-0 in the playoffs. Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston has been battling a knee injury but is expecting to play, and has been a problem for opposing quarterbacks when he’s been on the field. And as much as it pains me to admit this, receiver/return man Tyreek Hill has been an all-around weapon who can change the momentum of a game on just one play. This will be a close game, but the home field swings the slight advantage towards the Chiefs.

Kansas City 20, Pittsburgh 17

Green Bay Packers (+5) over DALLAS COWBOYS

When Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo went down in the pre-season with a back injury the season looked bleak in Dallas. One certainty was that rookie Ezekiel Elliot had the opportunity to be a premier running back, but how backup quarterback and fellow rookie Dak Prescott would fill in for Romo was still a question mark. The results couldn’t have been better, as both Elliot and Prescott excelled behind a dominant offensive line to secure home field advantage in the NFC. Their first career playoff test will be against the red hot Green Bay Packers, winners now of seven straight. Prescott has done everything right, showing poise and professionalism on and off the field. Will the rookie succumb to the pressure of his first playoff start? Last week the Packers made short work of the Cowboys’ nemesis New York Giants, who beat Dallas twice during the regular season. They lost receiver Jordy Nelson in the process, who has been ruled out for this game. At this point does it really matter for Aaron Rodgers? After receiver Randall Cobb was almost an afterthought during the regular season, the Packers quarterback hit him for three touchdowns against the Giants. Rodgers has been lights out for the past two months, and when he’s this dialed in there’s not a throw he can’t make. It also makes it tough to pick against him. The veteran Rodgers bests the two rookies to keep his streak alive.

Green Bay 27, Dallas 24

A Disparaging Wild-Card Weekend

In the world of sports, 2016 will be one of the more profound and tumultuous years in recent memory. Let's begin with the good: Villanova’s buzzer beater, the LeBron block and Cleveland’s championship, the Rio Olympics overcoming the Zika virus, an uninhabitable Olympic Village and numerous other safety and sanitary issues to bring us Simone Biles, Katie Ladecky, and Michael Phelps swansong, and of course the Cubs World Series title. The bad started with the passing of Muhammed Ali and continued with Gordie Howe, Pat Summit, Jose Fernandez, Arnold Palmer, Craig Sager and the Chapecoense plane crash. Then there’s always the bizarre and indifferent, which a majority of sports stories tend to fall under. This could include the retirement of Peyton Manning, Kobe Bryant and David Ortiz, the Rams move to L.A., Adam LaRoche’s sudden retirement, Laremy Tunsil’s draft day, Dustin Johnson’s controversial first major, Kevin Durant signing with Golden State, Ryan Lochte, and Vin Scully’s rendition of “Wind Beneath My Wings” and eventual send off.

The NFL, as always, had its own share of issues. The television ratings took a dip due to a combination of poor matchups, bad coaching, questionable officiating, a polarizing presidential election, a distasteful commissioner, the crackdown on daily fantasy, too many commercial breaks, oversaturation, and the fact there are too many outlets and options to watch quality television these days. Colin Kaepernick didn’t help matters by staging his ill-informed national anthem protest, but the league bounced back by shoving the Dallas Cowboys down our throats with four straight primetime games after they ruled Thanksgiving afternoon. There was also Deflategate 2, which after a 544 day, $22-million-dollar witch-hunt against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots that was all about protecting the integrity of the game because of the original Deflategate, received the following response from the commissioner’s office:

There were some good things that did happen on the field that will carry over into the post-season. The rookie combination of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot have Cowboys fans reminiscing of Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith after Dallas won the NFC East and Elliot taking the rushing title. After a several year hiatus, the Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins are back in the playoffs, and gone are the recent mainstays Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals. This will actually be the first time since 2003 that the two teams that made the Super Bowl the previous year failed to make the post-season, so a new champion will be crowned in a few short weeks. Will quarterbacks Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson add another championship to their mantle, or can Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or even Prescott experience their first taste of glory? We’ll know a little more after a pu pu platter of mediocrity that is this year’s Wild-Card weekend.

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HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) over Oakland Raiders

What a big, steaming mess this matchup turned out to be. A couple of weeks ago Oakland would have been a touchdown favorite going to this game and I would have picked them without even batting an eye. Derek Carr’s broken leg changed all of that really quick. The third year quarterback was having an MVP caliber season leading the high-octane Raider offense. Carr’s backups Matt McGloin and Connor Cook could only manage six points against the Denver Broncos in Week 17, causing Oakland to lose its first-round bye and shaking up the entire AFC. Now McGloin’s status is doubtful with a shoulder injury and fourth-round rookie Cook will make his FIRST EVER START in a playoff game. Can Latavius Murray carry the ball 40 times and lead Oakland to a win? Not likely. Houston's quarterback situation is also in disarray, and it looks like the $72-million-dollar thief Brock Osweiler is going to start after being benched for Tom Savage in Week 15 against Jacksonville. With Savage still in the concussion protocol, Houston will turn to Branden Weeden to back up Osweiler. Good grief. The good thing for Houston is that their defense is a little more competent than Oakland’s, and that could make the difference with this cringe worthy quarterback matchup. If Cook can’t get receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper involved, Oakland’s bounce back season will be all for nothing.

Houston 21, Oakland 14

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8) over Detroit Lions

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is having a terrific season, setting an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comebacks. Those comebacks were against Indianapolis, Philly, L.A., Washington, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Minnesota again, and Chicago. Only Washington has a winning record (8-7-1), and all of them will be watching the playoffs from home. Their ninth win came against New Orleans, another sub-.500 team. Not exactly the most stellar competition. Detroit is also riding a three game losing streak, which usually doesn’t bode well heading into the post-season. Seattle hasn’t looked like the dominant team of the past, but their defense is still their strong suit, ranking third in the league allowing 18.3 points per game. Their offensive line hasn’t been able to block all season, but quarterback Russell Wilson is one of the best at making plays while on the run. Neither team has an effective running game, so the offenses will rest squarely on the shoulders of both viable quarterbacks. Seattle however is quietly 7-1 at home, with an average margin of victory of roughly 11 points per game. Detroit has won only three games away from Ford Field, and with the crowd noise and Stafford’s finger injury seeming to affect his play, it’s going to be a tough road challenge for the Lions. As good as Stafford has been this season, he will still be seeking his first playoff win when this game is over.

Seattle 28, Detroit 17

Miami Dolphins (+10.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Does anyone else think this line is a taaaad bit high? Miami is not great by any means and is planning to start backup quarterback Matt Moore, which is a much better option than a hobbling Ryan Tannehill. Their running attack will be key with Jay Ajayi, who smoked the Steelers defense for 204 yards when these teams met in Week 6. The also have quality skill players in receivers Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills. If Moore doesn’t make mistakes and manages the offense the Dolphins should be able to move the ball and put points on the board. The same should go for Pittsburgh. The good news for the Steelers is that the offense is healthy, and when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has all of his weapons they’re tough to stop, especially at home. There also isn’t a team playing this weekend that’s hotter than Pittsburgh, winners of their last seven. The Steelers will take care of business, but Miami will be able to hang in a game where defense will not be on display.

Pittsburgh 35, Miami 28

New York Giants (+5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Have we seen this Giants team before (say in the 2008 and 2012 playoffs) that’s built on a solid defense and an offense that pulls one miraculous play out of thin air and finds a way to win? Quarterback Eli Manning is a model of inconsistency during the regular season that it’s hard to believe he has two Super Bowl titles. However his 8-3 playoff record is nothing to shake a stick at, and he has won two playoff games at Lambeau Field in his career. The Eli that shows up on Sunday could determine the Giants fate. The Packers looked all but done after Week 11, where they were riding a four game losing streak that included a blowout loss in Tennessee and a home loss to Indianapolis. Since then they ran the table to win the NFC North. During their six game win streak Aaron Rodgers has been flawless, throwing 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Giants defense has the capability to pressure Rodgers, but the Packers quarterback is tough to beat when he’s playing this well. Green Bay will continue to their hot streak, but the Giants defense keeps it close at a frozen Lambeau in the weekend’s most intriguing matchup.

Green Bay 20, NY Giants 17

Along with the first weekend of playoff football we are also lucky enough that award season is finally upon us. The Golden Globes are Sunday evening, and it wouldn’t be a predictions column without some ‘La La Land’ Hollyweed picks.

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama – Manchester by the Sea

Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical – La La Land

Best Actress, Drama – Natalie Portman, Jackie

Best Actor, Drama – Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis, Fences

Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Director – Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Television:

Best Series, Drama – Game of Thrones

Best Series, Comedy or Musical – Atlanta

Best Actress, Drama – Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

Best Actor, Drama – Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Best Supporting Actress – Thandie Newton, Westworld

Best Supporting Actor – John Lithgow, The Crown