The Best Possible Championship Sunday

In my divisional round post last week, I provided a statistic that the underdogs covered against the spread in 14 out of the last 15 playoff games. Out of the four games last weekend, the New Orleans Saints were the only home favorite not to cover. This is fairly typical in the divisional round, where home teams are 21-7 straight up since 2011. 

I would say as football fans we benefited from the results of last week following this pattern, providing the best matchups the league could have asked for on Championship Sunday. Whichever teams come out on top, it’s not going to be a boring Super Bowl. Let’s just hope these games can live up to the hype.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Los Angeles Rams

The makeup of these teams is very similar: offensive minded coaches with multiple playmakers that can put points on the board. Rams quarterback Jared Goff didn’t have a strong game stat wise against the Dallas Cowboys last week, but it didn’t matter. Running backs Toddy Gurley and C.J. Anderson (really?) torched the Cowboys defense for a combined 238 yards and 3 touchdowns. Can they repeat this performance against the Saints defense that was second in stopping the run during the regular season? Indoors on turf will certainly help. However, the Superdome is where the Saints thrive, where head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees are 6-0 in home playoff games. Including last week’s game against Philly, Brees has been near perfect at home, throwing 23 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Away from Los Angeles, Goff has 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. If the Rams have to keep on relying on the run game, the Saints have a slight edge on the defensive side of the ball. In what has all the makings of a shootout, give me Brees and the best wideout in the game Michael Thomas. Look for the Saints to move on to Atlanta.

Saints 38, Rams 34

New England Patriots (+3) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last week I thought that the Indianapolis Colts were going to upset the Kansas City Chiefs. I factored the Colts recent record (10 wins in their last 11 games) and thought quarterback Andrew Luck and Indy’s offensive line could exploit Kansas City’s defense. What I didn’t take into account was a dome team playing in cold weather on the road, and that during their hot streak Indy defeated quarterbacks Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott and Eli Manning. Not exactly Murderer’s Row. Meanwhile Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes showed no signs of nerves in his first playoff game. The Patriots silenced all of the haters by easily dismantling the L.A. Chargers, with the offense looking like typical Pats football. The problem this week is quarterback Tom Brady and company won’t be in the friendly confines of Foxboro. The Pats were 3-5 on the road this season, and in those five losses their defense allowed opposing running backs (Jaylen Samuels, Brandon Bolden, and Kerryon Johnson, just to name a few) to torch them for 111.6 yards per game. Not a good sign for a team that hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2006 going against the number one offense in the league. But Brady’s “everyone thinks we suck” comment after the game proves he still plays with a chip on his shoulder. Do I really want to pick against the G.O.A.T. when he’s an underdog? Plus in the coaching matchup, I’ll take Bill Belichick over Andy Reid, who is 1-4 in Conference Championship games. If the Pats can continue to keep the ground game clicking and control the clock, which they just showed they can do against a better Charger defense, they can pull off the road upset. Look for the ball in Brady’s hands with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, leading the Pats to a matchup against Drew Brees in the Super Bowl.

Now who wouldn’t want to see that?

Patriots 31, Chiefs 28

Breaking Down Division Weekend (With a Little History)

Here’s a few things that have significant anniversaries/birthdays this month:

Fifty years ago a little English rock band released their premiere album in the United States. You might have heard of them. The album Led Zeppelin made its debut to the world on January 12^th, 1969. Upon its initial release, Rolling Stone magazine labeled Jimmy Page “an extraordinarily proficient blues guitarist” in their review of the album. They then went on to say:

“Unfortunately, he is also a very limited producer and a writer of weak, unimaginative songs, and the Zeppelin album suffers from his having both produced it and written most of it”

They certainly missed the mark on that one.

Fans of fossil rock know Jimmy Page went on to write some of the most notable guitar riffs in rock history, starting with the album’s opening track, “Good Times Bad Times.” The album itself is a classic staple, incorporating a hard rock and blues sound that would define the band over the next decade. Not to mention introducing a genre that would influence countless bands since.

Jimmy Page also happened to turn 75 on January 9^th.

  

Happy 45^th to the sitcom Happy Days, which premiered on ABC on January 15^th, 1974 and ran for eleven seasons. Not only was the show immensely popular and gave us one of the coolest television characters of all time in Arthur “The Fonz” Fonzarelli, it made Ron Howard a household name and helped launch his directing career, spawned spinoffs Laverne & Shirley (RIP Penny Marshall), Mork & Mindy, and even Joanie Loves Chachi, created the phrase “jump the shark,” and gave us the setting for Weezer’s “Buddy Holly” video. Not too bad.

On January 9^th, 1984, Van Halen released their sixth studio album, remarkably titled 1984. Now fans might argue that it’s not their best record, but at the time it certainly became their most successful, introducing synth pop riffs to Eddie Van Halen’s signature guitar. During the early days of MTV, cheesy videos from this album were on a consistent rotation that they were burned into my young memory forever. For those who might have missed the boat:

Not only was 1984 a defining album of the 80s, it marked the end of David Lee Roth as lead singer of the band, paving the way for the Van Hagar era. If you’re not a Van Halen fan, trust me when I say it was all downhill from there.

The Sopranos made its debut on HBO on January 10^th, 1999. As part of its 20^th anniversary, HBO2 has been airing a marathon that wrapped this past Thursday. For anyone who watched the show in its heyday that might have casually tuned in to an episode and ended up binging a whole season will be reminded of why it still holds up as the best television drama of all time.

HBO

I mentioned in a previous post, and it’s been said countless times before, that The Sopranos was the first show to give us an antihero in Tony Soprano that viewers could not wait to tune in to see every Sunday, rooting for him even though we knew he was a ruthless mob boss. Without The Sopranos, there might have never been Walter White, Dexter Morgan, Don Draper or Ray Donovan. If you’ve never seen an episode, do yourself a favor and carve out some time over the next couple of winter months and check it out. You’ll be happy that you did.

And finally for you hardcore history buffs, Thomas Paine's Common Sense was first published on January 10th, 1776, advocating for the American colonies to seek independence from Great Britain. It was essentially the nations first best seller, influencing the signers of the Declaration of Independence and the founders of this great nation.

Before I dive into this weekend’s matchups, it should be noted that, according to OddShark, over the last 15 playoff games going into last season, the underdogs are 14-1 against the spread. Pretty crazy, right?

Will that trend continue this weekend? I guess you’ll have to force yourself to watch some football over the next couple of days to find out.

Indianapolis Colts (+5,5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last week against the Texans the Colts started like gangbusters, but failed to score in the second half after opening up a 21-0 lead in the second quarter. They're going to have to put up more points against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the top offense in the league if they're going to win this game. And they should be able to. Where the Chiefs strengths lie on the offensive side of the ball, the defense is a different story, finishing second to last during the regular season. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck should be able to exploit this weakness behind his strong offensive line. The Chiefs also seemed to have lost a little of their edge after releasing running back Kareem Hunt before Week 13, losing two out of their last three. Mahomes will be under a microscope after tossing over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns this season. Will the second-year quarterback succumb to the pressure as his young contemporaries Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky did last week? If he plays with the same poise as he did during the regular season, he should be fine. However the Colts are hot, winners of 10 of their last 11. Their defense won't be able to completely contain Mahomes, but should be able to keep it close, especially if the weather plays its part. There's also the Andy Reid factor, who is 1-4 as the Chiefs head coach in the post-season. Look for Luck and the Colts to pull off the upset. 

Colts 34, Chiefs 31

Dallas Cowboys (+7) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Has anyone noticed the recent play of Rams quarterback Jared Goff? He finished the season by throwing four touchdowns against the lowly 49ers, but in the four games leading up to Week 17 he had only two touchdowns and six interceptions, which included back to back losses to Chicago on the road and Philly at home. Losing safety blanket Cooper Kupp for the season after Week 10 certainly did not help. The Rams still have running back Todd Gurley, who might struggle against the Cowboy’s defense, which excels at stopping the run. The same can’t be said for the Rams defense, which allowed 122.3 yards per game on the ground during the regular season. That should bode well for running back Ezekiel Elliot, who torched the Seahawks for 137 yards last week. The Dallas defense and their ability to control the clock should keep it close, but Rams coach Sean McVay has been anointed the new offensive genius of the NFL, so much so that newly hired coaches are being referred to as his friend in their team’s press releases. Seriously. Let’s see if McVay can live up to the hype and win his first playoff game, where there’s sure to be an abundance of Cowboys fans making plenty of noise in the Coliseum.

Rams 27, Cowboys 24

Los Angeles Chargers (+4) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Last week I made a point that the Dallas Cowboys benefited in a mediocre conference. If there’s a worse conference than the NFC East, it’s the AFC East. The Patriots beat up the weak competition and were darlings of their division again, winning their eleventh straight division title. They did have early season wins against playoff teams Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Chicago. They also suffered road losses to Jacksonville, Detroit and to Miami on a fluke lateral play to end the game that ultimately cost them the number one seed. Not typical New England Patriot football. Many in the national media believe these are signs that the Patriots dynasty is coming to a close, and it very well could be. Tight end Rob Gronkowski looks like all of his injuries are catching up with him, quarterback Tom Brady has shown signs of trepidation from pressure in the pocket, and reliable wide receiver Julian Edelman led the league in dropped passes this season. Not a good sign for this tough matchup for the Pats. Chargers defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are as good as they come, and the Los Angeles defense as a whole registered seven sacks against a putrid Ravens offense last week. Will L.A. be hindered from a physical game in Baltimore to fly across country again to play in below freezing temperatures? Perhaps. But the Chargers haven’t been bothered from where they’ve had to play this year, going 8-1 on the road with last week’s win. They have yet, however, to play in Foxboro, where the Pats were undefeated this season. Brady and coach Bill Belichick haven’t lost a playoff game in Foxboro since 2012, winners of 9 straight post-season games at home. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers against the Patriots in his career? 1-7, including 0-4 in Foxboro. This game could define Rivers’ legacy, and everyone outside of New England will be rooting for him. It’s unfortunate the national audience is going to be let down. The Patriots win a close one with the home field edge.

Patriots 24, Chargers 21

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-8) over Philadelphia Eagles

Did the Eagles win their wild-card game last week, or did the Chicago Bears give it away? If Cody Parkey’s kick bounces in the opposite direction, then Foles magic comes to a tragic end. Granted the Eagles came back on the road against a tough defense, but they were also going against Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who didn’t rise to the pressure of his first playoff game. Containing Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the rest of the New Orleans offense is going to be a different story, especially in the Superdome. Not including their throwaway game in Week 17, the Saints average 37 points a game at home. Is Philly going to be able to keep up? Not to mention Saints head coach Sean Peyton’s little motivation tactic from earlier this week.

A little unorthodox, but highly effective. We’ll soon see if it drives the Saints to a Super Bowl title.

Saints 30, Eagles 17

(Finally) A Competitive Wild Card Weekend

As we turn the calendars from 2018, it’s hard to believe that we will soon be closing the door on another decade in another twelve short months. Over the course of 2019, be prepared for “Best of” lists from most publications covering every aspect of pop culture (some will probably be created in this blog). As for the NFL, if any player or coach can maintain a job in the league for over ten years, they should consider themselves lucky.

Currently Bill Belichick, Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, and John Harbaugh are four head coaches that were hired in their existing positions before 2010 (so long, Marvin Lewis). When you win a Super Bowl, it tends to add to your shelf life as a head coach. Out of this short list, only Tomlin failed to lead his team to post-season this year. Instead, these successful veterans will face off against first-timers Matt Nagy, Frank Reich, and Anthony Lynn as well as some familiar faces in Jason Garrett, Bill O’Brien, Andy Reid and Pete Carroll.

For players, it’s a lot tougher to stay healthy and on the field, which can contribute to the average NFL career being only 3.3 years. The league, however, has implemented multiple rules to protect quarterbacks going back to 1995, leading many pass-throwers to avoid major injuries and to now thrive at the position.

Of the quarterbacks playing this post-season, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers began their careers before 2010, while Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Nick Foles were all drafted in 2012. Only Rivers and Luck have not won a Super Bowl, but both have played in a conference championship game. To add to the excitement this January, new playmakers Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and (I guess) Mitch Trubisky will be making their first playoff starts.

What does any of this mean? When it comes to the playoffs, experience certainly plays a factor. However, last season we did witness Philly head coach Doug Pederson, in his first trip to the post-season, guide the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory by out coaching the more experienced Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. After a regular season that was filled with inconsistent play week after week, this year’s playoffs are completely up for grabs. At least this weekend we don't have the quarterback play of Connor Cook, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Lindley to look forward to.

Before breaking down this weekend’s games, here’s one more quick quarterback stat:

What do Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Stafford and Derek Carr all have in common?

They are currently the top six highest paid quarterbacks in the league. And they will all be watching the playoffs from home.

Your 2018 NFL, everyone.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

If there’s one thing I know that I can count on, it’s that the Houston Texans and/or the Cincinnati Bengals are going play on Wild Card Saturday. It’s like death and taxes. After a slow start (0-3), the Texans pulled off nine in a row, with victories against powerhouses Buffalo, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, Washington, and even a win in Indy in Week 4. The Colts were similar, finishing the season 9-1 after starting 1-5, including winning their last four that began with a victory in Houston in Week 14. Houston's quarterback Deshaun Watson won a National Championship at Clemson, so he knows how to handle the pressure of playing big games. His coach Bill O’Brien, on the other hand, is 1-2 in the playoffs. To O'Brien's credit, his quarterbacks in the post-season were the aforementioned Hoyer and Brock Osweiler, but the record still doesn't look good. Andrew Luck, after a great comeback season, is making his first playoff appearance since 2014, and has a little more success in the post-season (3-3) than O’Brien coached teams. The key to this game will be Indy’s strong offensive line. If they can protect Luck against J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the Houston pass rush, then the Colts move on. Look for a repeat of Week 14 in this rubber match.

Indy 27, Houston 24

Seattle Seahawks (+2) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The last time these two teams squared off on a Saturday night, this happened:

The image still haunts Cowboys fans, who have only won two playoff games since. As for this season, Dallas took advantage of playing in the mediocre NFC East, going 5-1 in the division. Their defense turned out to be pretty good, finishing seventh in the league. The Amari Cooper trade after Week 7, as illogical as it seemed at the time, revitalized the offense. Seattle closed out the season as the league’s best rushing team (160.00 yards per game) as well as winning six of their last seven. During that span, quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Cowboys only have one loss at home, but I’m siding with the playoff experience of Wilson (8-4) and head coach Pete Carroll (10-7) over Dallas QB Dak Prescott (0-1) and coach Jason Garrett (1-2). The Seahawks win a close one.

Seattle 21, Dallas 17

San Diego Chargers (+2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens have a formula for playoff success: their fearless, play strong defense, and can run the ball down your throat. All eyes will be on dynamic rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson, who took over for the injured Joe Flacco in Week 10 and has not looked back, going 6-1 as a starter to finish the season. The Chargers should have taken notes in the loss they received from Baltimore at home not that long ago in Week 16, especially on how to contain Jackson. It’s been a few years, so people might forget that Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has nine playoff games (4-5) under his belt. Jackson, on the other hand, has recent history working against him. Since 2010, rookie quarterbacks are 2-7 in the playoffs, and the two winners (TJ Yates and Russell Wilson) were facing other rookie quarterbacks (Andy Dalton and Robert Griffin III). The Baltimore defense will give Rivers fits, but his key offensive weapons, running back Melvin Gordon and receiver Keenan Allen, should both be healthy. Plus the Chargers are one of two teams this season that have a better road record (7-1) than home (5-3). Expect the veteran Rivers to seek revenge and out duel the young rookie.

Los Angeles 24, Baltimore 17

CHICAGO BEARS (-6.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

I’m a believer in Foles magic. I watched it during the Super Bowl last year as Philly quarterback Nick Foles picked apart the defense of the New England Patriots. The Eagles closed out the season 3-0 with Foles under center, sneaking into the playoffs thanks to the collapse by the Vikings. You know what else I believe in? Bears linebacker Khalil Mack being the most dominant defensive player in the NFL. The entire Chicago defensive unit is special, and will keep Foles and the Eagles offense at bay. As long as Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky manages the game and doesn’t hand it over to Philly, the Bears should win easily.

Chicago 20, Philly 10

Sunday also is the first major award ceremony for Hollywood. I’ll admit that I have not seen too many of the Golden Globe nominations, but I’m going to roll the dice anyway on some of the major categories.

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama: A Star Is Born

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy: Vice (A movie about former Vice President Dick Chaney is a comedy? Shouldn’t it be, like, a horror movie, or something?)

Best Actress, Drama: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Best Actor, Drama: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical: Christian Bale, Vice

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Vice

Best Director: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Television:

Best Series, Drama: Killing Eve

Best Series, Comedy or Musical: Barry

Best Actress, Drama: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

Best Actor, Drama: Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical: Bill Hader, Barry

Best Supporting Actress: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Supporting Actor: Henry Winkler, Barry