Breaking Down the 2016 Brackets

March. It’s the time where the winter weather starts to turn and the thoughts of cookouts and beaches start to become a reality (although a late New England snow storm is never out of the question). It’s the time where many celebrate their Irish heritage and, in some years, when children snack on chocolate bunnies and take part in Easter egg hunts. It’s also when the math constant Pi (π) is celebrated around the world (Seriously, look it up). But most of all it’s the time when 68 college teams vie for our attention in the NCAA tournament, only to leave a majority of us dumbfounded and let down as we watch our brackets become decimated over the course of the opening weekend.

This year has the makings of a wide open race. During the regular season North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan State, Kansas, Oklahoma and Villanova all held the number one ranking, proving there’s no consensus favorite going into the tourney. We all witnessed what happened to Kentucky last year, so even the best teams aren’t always guaranteed a national title. Not having a clear cut favorite heightens the excitement level, but it also makes filling out a bracket that much more challenging. If you stick with teams that have some quality wins under their belt hailing from power conferences that are peaking at just the right time, you should at least not embarrass yourself in your office pool. But I’m not going to tell you anything you don’t already know. As always watch out for those pesky 12-5 upsets. And never, ever forget the Tom Izzo factor. I have a feeling it’s going to play more of a substantial role this year.

South

Player to Watch: Josh Hart, Villanova

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Temple vs. Iowa

Most Anticipated Potential Matchup: California vs. Kansas

Team with the Best Chance to Ruin Your Bracket: Connecticut

Josh Hart

As the top overall seed going into the tournament, the selection committee didn’t make it easy for Kansas. They have a potential second-round matchup with Connecticut, an always dangerous team this time of year. Remember two years ago when UConn made their championship run from a seven seed? After the Huskies either Maryland or California lay on the horizon for Kansas, both teams with the talent to play spoiler. On the other side of the bracket Josh Hart leads a Villanova team that is notorious for their defense. Holding opponents to 63.7 points per game, it should be enough for the Wildcats to meet Kansas in the Elite Eight, but don’t be surprised if potential speed bumps Iowa or Miami send the Wildcats packing. As difficult as the road is for Kansas, they held the toughest schedule over the regular season and have proved their resilience by winning their last 14 games. Their resume speaks for itself, with 11 wins over ranked teams including West Virginia, Oklahoma and Kentucky. Look for the Jayhawks to not only reach the Final Four but to play for the National Championship.

West

Player to Watch: Grayson Allen, Duke

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Oregon State vs. VCU

Most Anticipated Potential Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Oregon

Team with the Best Chance to Ruin Your Bracket: Texas

Grayson Allen

Last year the Blue Devils drew the easiest path out of all of the top seeds to win their fifth National Championship. As a four seed this year they will look to Grayson Allen and his 21.6 points a game to carry Duke back to the Final Four. The Blue Devils can score, but at times have trouble on the defensive boards. This could pose a problem against a tough Baylor team in the second round. Whoever advances will have to deal with Oregon, the Pac-12 champions and winners of their last eight overall. The Ducks have multiple scoring options that should lead them as far as the Elite Eight. If Oregon wants to reach the Final Four they’ll have to hurdle Oklahoma and National Player of the Year candidate Bobby Hield. The Sooners will be tested with Texas or Texas A&M in the Sweet 16, but they have one of the top offenses in the country that can shoot the three. Oklahoma will move on to the Final Four to meet their fellow Big 12 rival Kansas.

East

Player to Watch: Brice Johnson, North Carolina

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Providence vs. USC

Most Anticipated Potential Matchup: Kentucky vs. North Carolina

Team with the Best Chance to Ruin Your Bracket: Indiana

Brice Johnson

Every March there’s a region that’s debated as the most loaded, and with North Carolina, Xavier, West Virginia, Kentucky and Indiana, this year that honor belongs to the East. Many experts like Kentucky, and rightfully so. Coach Calipari has the best freshmen in the country in Jamal Murray, and has done a masterful coaching job as the Wildcats have won their last five games entering the tournament. They will meet a quality Indiana Hoosiers team in the second round, and the winner could go on to play spoiler and make a Final Four run. On the bottom half of the bracket, West Virginia and Xavier will look to slug it out with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. As the pre-season number one, the Tar Heels are also playing their best basketball at the right time. Led by senior Brice Johnson, they are also winners of their last five games. The last time North Carolina began the season ranked number one they went on to win the National Championship in 2009. Can the Tar Heels repeat history? If they can hold off Kentucky in the Sweet 16, they have the talent that will carry them on to Houston.

Midwest

Player to Watch: Denzel Valentine, Michigan State

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Iona vs. Iowa State

Most Anticipated Potential Matchup: Michigan State vs. Virginia

Team with the Best Chance to Ruin Your Bracket: Perdue

Denzel Valentine

On the top half of the bracket there’s Virginia, who boasts one of the top defenses in college basketball, holding opponents to 59.7 points per game. Last year as a two seed they didn’t make it out of opening weekend, losing to Michigan State in the second round (I see a pattern developing here). Led by a core group of seniors that are highlighted by ACC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year Malcom Brogdon, the Cavaliers have the experience to make a deep run to the Elite Eight. However waiting for them on the horizon will be Tom Izzo and the same Michigan State Spartans. As I mentioned the “Izzo” factor is not to be ignored, and normally is a term that is thrown around by analysts throughout the tournament. Going back to 1999, Izzo has reached the Final Four seven times with one National Championship (2000). He’s done it from a one, two, five, and seven seed, and his teams always come prepared to play in March. With senior Denzel Valentine, the Spartans are one of the most well-rounded teams in the tournament. They rank in the top 20 in team defense (63.4 points per game), hold opponents off the glass (11.7 rebound margin), and lead the nation in three-point field-goal percentage (43.4%). They will meet Kansas in the National Championship game, and be the last team standing to cut down the nets.