Sunday, April 10, 2016

2016 MLB Preview

Slumps. We all go through them. Whether it's in our professional or even our personal life, we are all presented with challenges (some more daunting than others) that can throw us off our game. In professional sports, slumps can build over time into droughts. Excruciatingly painful droughts.

The most droughts, or seasons without winning a championship, are spread throughout the NFL. The franchises in Kansas City, Minnesota, the Jets (Ha Ha), Cincinnati, Buffalo, Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego, Tennessee, Philly, Detroit and Arizona have not won titles in at least 45 years. In the NBA the Clippers, Phoenix, Atlanta, Sacramento and Cleveland can brag about that distinction. In hockey only St. Louis, Vancouver and Toronto have the most tortured fan bases. 

Last October the Kansas City Royals broke a 30 year slump by winning the World Series, but there are franchises in Major League Baseball with longer droughts. Milwaukee and San Diego are over the 45 year mark, but unless something short of a miracle occurs, they won't be competing for a title this year. Washington, Texas, Houston and Cleveland (at least they have the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame) have longer losing spells than Milwaukee and San Diego, but they all have the potential to make some noise come October. And then there's the most tortured franchise in all of sports that I don't even have to mention. You all know who I speak of. Is this finally their year? If they play up to their expectations, the "Lovable Losers" will be a thing of the past.

American League:

Division Winners: Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros
Wild Card Winners: Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers
A.L. MVP: Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
A.L. Cy Young: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Bryon Buxton, Minnesota Twins

National League:

Division Winners: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
Wild Card Winners: St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals
N.L. MVP: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
N.L. Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
N.L. Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers


It’s Going to be a Long Summer.

I’m talking to the fans of the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A’s, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies as some of these teams start the rebuilding process. The Phillies made it clear last summer they were prepared to rebuild when they traded Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon. Now only Ryan Howard
Maikel Franco
and Carlos Ruiz remain from the World Series team from 2008, but the youngsters Maikel Franco and Aaron Nola are quality building blocks for the future. Their N.L. East rivals Atlanta are in the same mode of building up the farm system, evident by moving Shelby Miller and Andrelton Simmons. The return of outfielder and potential leadoff hitter Ender Inciarte to join Freddy Freeman in the lineup is a start. With the lowest payroll in baseball, the Brewers are an afterthought in a division that boasts the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates. Cincinnati has some quality young arms in Raisel Iglesias and Anthony DeSclafani, but is in the same predicament ans Milwaukee. After bringing in Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and James Shields before the 2015 season, the Padres were a popular pick to make the post-season, only to win 74 games and finish fourth in the
Raisel Iglesias
N.L. West. This winter they traded Craig Kimbrel and watched Upton sign with Detroit. The fire sale could continue this summer with Shields and fellow starter Andrew Cashner. Playing offense in Colorado is always fun, but the Rockies pitching staff has all the signs of an inflated ERA. With general manager Billy Beane running the show in Oakland, usually anything is possible with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. If you’re Beane you’re hoping that ace Sonny Gray and youngsters Marcus Semien and Billy Burns can help the A’s compete in the A.L. West. By resigning Chris Davis, the Orioles retain a power bat in an already potent lineup that includes Manny Machado and Adam Jones. If only their starting pitching reflected their offense. With Wei-Yin Chen moving to Miami, Baltimore’s starting rotation looks pretty bleak, and they’re going to have to slug their way to victories.

There’s Room for Optimism.

Bryon Buxton
In a division with the reigning champs (Kansas City), a strong rotation (Cleveland) and an offense led by Miguel Cabrera (Detroit), the Minnesota Twins are on a short list to make the playoffs. What they do have going for them is three candidates that will vie for the American League Rookie of the Year award. Top prospect Bryon Buxton is expected to be the opening day center fielder, and has all the talent to be a five-tool player. Korean slugger Byung Ho Park is going to be counted on to bring some much needed power to the middle of the lineup. Twenty-one-year-old Jose Berrios will start the season in the minors, but based on his numbers from last year (2.87 ERA, 177 strikeouts) he’s ready for an early season call up, giving the Twins a much needed ace. This might be a lost year, but the future is looking bright in Minnesota.

Don’t Be Fooled

Zack Greinke
Every season there’s a team (or two) that makes several roster moves that makes them an intriguing pick to make the post-season. Last year we were all sucked in by San Diego’s big name acquisitions. This season that honor belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks, mainly due to the addition of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to the starting rotation. With All-Star Patrick Corbin available for the entire season, Arizona has one of the brightest rotations in baseball. Paul Goldschmidt is always a MVP candidate, but the loss of A.J. Pollack to a fractured elbow is a crushing blow. Eighty wins is reachable, but in a tough division with San Francisco and the Dodgers, Arizona’s playoff hopes are still another season away.

The 80-Win Club

Here we have the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers, and every team has the potential to make the playoffs if certain areas fall into place.

Masahiro Tanaka
The A.L East is fairly wide open, and the division winner will probably not win 90 games. Tampa brought in Corey Dickerson to add some strength to their offense, however he could see his numbers dip out of the thin air of Colorado. But with Cy Young candidate Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi helming the starting rotation for the Rays, things are looking up. The good news for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka is healthy this spring. The bad news is that they’ll be without their new acquired closer Aroldis Chapman for the first 30 games of the season due to a suspension. Andrew Miller can fill in for Chapman until he returns, but the Yankees success will depend on the continued health of Tanaka and a solid contribution from the rest of their rotation.

Chris Sale
The N.L. Central is similar to the East where any team has a post-season shot. The Tigers landed one of the top pitching free agents in Jordan Zimmerman, and Justin Verlander showed some brief sparks of his old Cy Young form down the stretch last season. Verlander will need to stay healthy and continue to pretend it’s 2012 for the Tigers to succeed. Chicago did some good things by bringing in Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie to bolster their defense. There additions could be enough to vault them to the post-season, especially with ace Chris Sale starting every five days.  Unfortunately after Sale and Jose Quintana the rest of the rotation drops off.

Mike Trout
Out West all eyes are usually on MVP candidate Mike Trout. The pitching staff with Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney and Jered Weaver should be respectable, but the rest of the offense around Trout needs to produce. In Seattle the rotation with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker has the potential to be one of the best in baseball. For the Mariners to succeed Robinson Cano needs to have a bounce-back season, and the bullpen has to be better in all areas from last year.

Pittsburgh will miss A.J. Burnett in the rotation, but still have Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. They boast one of the best outfields in baseball led by Andrew McCutchen, but the rotation after Cole and Liriano will have to contribute if the Pirates want to compete with the Cardinals and Cubs. The Dodgers took a big loss with Greinke, but still have the best pitcher in the game with Clayton Kershaw. They have some young talent in Joc Pedersen and promising rookie Corey Seager, and new manager Dave Roberts should give this team a spark to keep them in the hunt for their fourth straight N.L. West title.

The Enigma

The Boston Red Sox surprised everyone by winning the World Series in 2013. They followed up their success story with two straight last place finishes in the A.L. East. This offseason they did the right thing by bringing in ace David Price and top closer Craig Kimbrel. Their young stars Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Blake Swihart have all of the potential to improve. So what’s the cause for
David Price
concern in Beantown? Before last year they looked to add to their offense and paid ludicrously for Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. Hanley was a failed experiment in left field, and the Sox are hoping he fairs better at first base, but more importantly he needs to stay on the field (105 games played last year). Sandoval has looked so unimpressive in spring training that manager John Farrell is going with Travis Shaw as his starting third baseman, leaving $17 million on the bench. Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly are all returning to a rotation that boasted a 4.39 ERA last season. Can Price give the rest of the rotation the boost to drive this team to the playoffs? Does 40-year-old David Ortiz have one more 30 home run and 100 RBI season left in him? With Betts and Jackie Bradley, Jr. the outfield defense will be stellar, but will Ramirez’s inexperience at first make the infield defense suffer? If Sandoval is unhappy due to lack of playing time, will he be a disturbance in the club house? This team has the talent to win a wide open division, but Farrell is going to be on a short leash to begin the season. If the Sox struggle coming out of the gate, Farrell could be shown an early exit, and it could be another disappointing summer in Boston.

Playing in October

The Toronto Blue Jays did lose David Price as well as Mark Buehrle’s 15 wins, but they still have reigning MVP Josh Donaldson anchoring the top offense in the American League. If Marcus Stroman can build off his strong late season return from last season, it should be enough for the Blue Jays to
Josh Donaldson
repeat as division champions. With Corey Kluber winning the Cy Young in 2014, the Cleveland Indians had high expectations going into last season, but came up short of the post-season. Along with Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar make up the best rotation in the A.L. Central, and the expectations are there again. With a full season of Francisco Lindor, Cleveland’s offense has the potential to improve to contend for a wild card spot. The Royals didn’t have the same high expectations last spring after losing James Sheilds. They only went on to dominate the division and win the World Series. The core of the roster is back again, and the champs showed the successful bullpen formula in the post-season that included Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis. If they can draw the same success from their starters, another division title is in sights. Texas has a full season of Cole Hamels, and Yu Darvish is expected to return from Tommy John surgery. Veterans Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltran and Shin-Soo Choo should anchor the offense, and second baseman Rougned Odor is a star in the making. With a healthy Darvish the Rangers will push for the second wild card.

The reigning National League Champion New York Mets lost World Series hero Dan Murphy to division rival Washington, but were able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes to keep some pop in the offense.
Jacob deGrom
It will be the young arms Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steve Matz that will lead the Mets back to the post-season. The San Francisco bolstered their rotation by bringing in Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. It’s been two seasons since they’ve reached the post-season (won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014), so the Giants are due. Not much has changed in St. Louis, but manager Mike Matheny will have the Cardinals competing for a playoff spot for the sixth straight season. For the past several seasons the Washington Nationals have been pre-season picks by many to make a deep post-season run, but were bounced in the Division series in their only playoff appearances in 2010 and 2012. They lost Jordan Zimmerman, but still have Cy Young hopfuls Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. With MVP candidate Bryce Harper coming into his prime, the Nats will compete for the second wild card in the National League.

This is Finally Their Year

Carlos Correa
Last season the Houston Astros surprised the baseball world and made the post-season for the first time in ten years. Dallas Keuchel took the A.L. Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa is on the fast track to be one of the best players in baseball, and he’s only 21. Their young core of Keuchel, Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve won’t sneak up on anyone this year. They took the eventual champion Royals to five games in the Division Series, and with a year of post-season experience under their belt look for the Astros to make a deep playoff run.

Things seem to be falling into place for the Chicago Cubs, and for a team that hasn’t been to the World Series since 1945, it’s about time. Jake Arrietta has developed
Kris Bryant
into a reliable ace, and he will look to look to duplicate is Cy Young winning season from a year ago. To join his former teammate Jon Lester, the Cubs brought in veteran John Lackey, who knows all about pitching in October. Along with Rookie of the Year and budding star Kris Bryant, the Cubs have an abundance of young talent in Addison Russel, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and newly signed Jason Heyward. Manager Joe Maddon brought this team to the post-season last year for the first time since 2008, and will look to build on being swept in the NLCS. The Cubs have all the pieces in place, and will finally break the longest championship drought in all of sports and win their first World Series in 108 years.

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