And the 2016 Oscars Go To...

If you happened to miss the 'What If'' second-chance Oscars post from earlier this week, check it out here.

Over the past decade has there really been that much excitement on Oscar night? We’ve witnessed some memorable moments, including Scorsese finally being honored in 2007, Katheryn Bigelow becoming the first woman to take home Best Director in 2010, and Heath Ledger’s posthumous win in 2009. We have moved past the days of streakers, actors declining awards, or even Jack Palance’s one-armed push ups.

This year the nominations were met with a bit of controversy, with no actors of color being nominated in any of the major acting categories. Although the subject is sure to come up on Chris Rock’s opening monologue, there are some other underlying stories in play. After 40 years since being nominated for playing Rocky Balboa, will Sylvester Stallone win his first Oscar for playing the same character? Can Iñárritu win back to back awards in the Best Director category? Is it finally Leo’s time? And with a Best Picture category that’s the most wide open in recent memory, it has the potential for a historic evening. Let’s roll through picks in the major categories (once again, my apologies for best sound mixing).  

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Leigh is nothing short of insane as the scene-stealing, backwoods outlaw in Quentin Tarantino’s raucous Western. As fiendish and exuberant as her character is in typical Tarantino fashion, there are two nominees that are pulling ahead in this race. The first is Winslett, who is working on her seventh nomination as Steve Jobs’ insinuating marketing executive, and a win would land her a second Oscar. She appeared to be the early favorite by winning the Golden Globe, but Vikander has picked up steam by taking the SAG and Critics’ Choice. Vikander broke ground as the mesmerizing android in Ex Machina and continues her hot streak as the supporting artist wife of Einar Wegener, the first known recipient of sex reassignment surgery. The night will begin with the newcomer winning her first Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Stallone first introduced Rocky to the Academy at the 1977 awards, where his underdog film took Best Picture over the more touted All the President’s Men, Network, and Taxi Driver. Stallone’s film took the big prize that night, but he fell short for Best Actor, where Peter Finch and his famous “Mad as Hell” speech took home the award. Revisiting Rocky Balboa for the seventh time, it’s the most subtle version Stallone has played the iconic character that we’ve seen yet. And it works. As the mentor and trainer to his rival Apollo Creed’s now grown up son, Rocky struggles with his own personal battle as he’s forced to face his own mortality for the first time. Creed deserved more recognition at this year’s awards, and it’s only fitting the Academy recognize Stallone for his commanding performance.

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchet, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Blanchet and Lawrence have been to this rodeo before, combining for 10 nominations and three wins. However as much as these two are a regular presence on awards night, neither of them is the frontrunner in this category. This award season has belonged to Brie Larson, who gives a spirited performance as a mother who is held captive with her five-year-old son. As the first award of the night considered to be a solid lock, Larson will continue her winning streak and collect her first Oscar.

Best Actor:

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Sure Matt Damon brought a mix of wittiness and composure while stranded on a deserted planet, and Fassbender was prolific in showing how Steve Jobs was an intolerable prick. But did either one of them suffer a brutal bear mauling, eat raw bison liver and sleep in the carcass of a dead horse after falling off a cliff, all while being chased by a tribal band of Indians? I did’t think so. This might not be the most stimulating performance of Leo’s career, but after grunting his way all by his lonesome through the frozen frontier, it’s certainly his most strenuous. Director Alejandro G Iñárritu put his actors through hell while filming, and DiCaprio more than stepped up to the challenge. Plus after seeing Oscar pass him by four previous times, he’s due. Leo is more of a sure thing than Larson, and will finally take home the coveted prize.

Best Director:

Adam McKay, The Big Short

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

I’d never thought I would see an Adam McKay movie that didn’t include Will Ferrell. Even though McKay made a unique and insightful film, his past history of buddy comedies might be held against him amongst voters. If I personally had a pick, I would acknowledge the balls to the wall spectacle that is Mad Max: Fury Road. Miller used a barren landscape and filled it with extended action sequences highlighted by whirlwind editing. The general plot is not as sophisticated as the other films in this category, but Miller proves with minimal dialogue that you can still make a powerhouse movie. Plus it’s a boatload of fun. However the mostly white male dinosaurs that make up the academy voters are going to steer towards the vision of Iñárritu. Last year he earned his first directing Oscar for the cinematographic artistry that distinguished Birdman. This year Iñárritu ditches his crafty camera work for the breathtaking landscapes of The Revenant. Shot in all natural light, the film’s backdrop is visually stunning, making up for the story of revenge that tends to drag on at times. Miller won the Critics’ Choice, but Iñárritu scooped up the Golden Globe and the Directors Guild. Iñárritu will become the first director to win back to back Oscars since Joseph L. Mankiewicz did it in 1950.

Best Picture:

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

When I left the theater after seeing Spotlight my initial thought was if that it doesn’t win best picture then the awards are a complete sham. Since then I saw The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, and The Revenant. All quality movies, but my prediction is going to stay the same. Out of all of these films I wasn’t as emotionally stirred as I was during the closing credits of Spotlight. Perhaps it hits more to home being from the Boston area, but it’s a story and a subject matter that shouldn’t be ignored. With the age of social media and information being available in an instant, the film’s in depth insight into investigative journalism puts it in a time capsule and makes it feel like a lost art form. Iñárritu’s film is visionary and has all the makings of a winner, but it doesn’t meet the boldness of Spotlight. The director might take home the individual award, but he will lose out on the night’s biggest prize.