Betting on the 2016 Emmy Awards

If there’s one thing 2016 will be remembered for is the passing of some notable celebrities. Some of the biggest names have come out of the world of music, such as Prince, David Bowie and Glen Frey. Other personalities include boxing icon Muhammed Ali, former first lady Nancy Reagan, Holocaust survivor and author Elie Wiesel, author Harper Lee, producer and director Garry Marshall, and actors Alan Rickman, Patty Duke, and most recently Gene Wilder.

Three other actors that we’re sure to see on the Emmy montage this Sunday are Garry Shandling, Abe Vigoda, and Doris Roberts. Before the days of 30 Rock Shandling brought us The Larry Sanders Show, one of HBO’s most influential comedies about a late-night talk show. In 1998 it won Emmys for Outstanding Writing and Directing, and Rip Torn won Outstanding Supporting Actor in 1996. The show was nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series six times in a row, and Shandling for Outstanding Lead Actor five times.

Vigoda is more known for his role in The Godfather, but was nominated for three Emmys for his role as Detective Phil Fish on Barney Miller. The show itself was a staple at the Emmys, being nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series seven years in a row from 1976-1982, and winning for its final season. And Roberts is definitely no stranger to the Emmys. She won for Best Supporting Actress for St. Elsewhere in 1983, and won four awards for portraying Marie Barone in Everybody Loves Raymond. Overall she was nominated eleven times, including seven straight years from 1999-2005.

As for this year’s awards, as viewers we’ve lost Emmy regulars Mad Men, Parks and Recreation, and even Louie. Can newbies Black-ish, Masters of None and Mr. Robot make some noise? After losing money on tackle football and haggling over your fantasy team and all day, why not try to make some back on a primetime awards show?

(Odds figured by Bovada)

Although the odds are not available this year, here’s some quick picks for the supporting performance categories:

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Anna Chlumsky is always great as part of the Veep ensemble, but until Mom ends or Allison Janney just stops acting, Janney takes the prize.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Louie Anderson as a woman? Hard to envision. This is the most crowded acting category with seven nominees, and Captain Ray Holt, Phil Dunphy and Titus Andromedon are characters that are tough to ignore. However, all signs point towards Veep, and Tony Hale will win his third award in four years as the president’s lap dog Gary Walsh.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

The Game of Thrones trio Cersei Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen and Ayra Stark are always dangerous, but in the end it’s all about Cersei. Lena Heady takes her first Emmy.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Normally when a character dies, I can only imagine it would be difficult to continue to write a plot line for that character. It was done for Ben Mendelsohn as Danny Rayburn, but even in doing so he was not as prominent as he was in the first season of Bloodline. Even without an epic speech this season Peter Dinklage would be an easy choice, and Jon Snow was all anybody talked about. With that said I’m going with Jonathan Banks as the conflicted Mike Ehrmantraut in Better Call Saul.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt – 5/1

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep – 1/5

Laurie Metcalf, Getting On – 33/1

Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish – 18/1

Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer – 7/1

Lily Tomlin, Grace & Frankie – 9/1

It’s good to see Ellie Kemper here, who received a blatant snub last year for her role as Kimmy Schmidt, the girl acclimating to the real world and New York City after living against her will in a bunker for 15 years. The first time nominee has the best odds to dethrone Louis-Dreyfus, who is going for her fifth consecutive Emmy for her role as now former Commander-in-Chief Selina Meyer. As fun as Kemper is to watch, Louis-Dreyfus is still where to place your money. This season Meyer is conniving as ever, and Louis-Dreyfus delivers every brazen insult with perfect tenacity. Per usual you need to bet a lot to win a little, but your money is safe with Louis-Dreyfus.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish – 6/1

Aziz Ansari, Master of None – 3/1

Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth – 30/1

William H Macy, Shameless – 20/1

Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley – 12/1

Jeffrey Tambour, Transparent – 1/3

It’s good to see a couple of fresh faces in this category (sorry Jim Parsons). Aziz first broke through as part of the great ensemble of Parks and Recreation, and it’s nice to see him recognized for portraying Dev, a struggling actor in New York City in an appealing show that Aziz created. Middleditch might not play the best character on Silicon Valley, but he’s the obvious nomination choice as the neurotic Pied Piper founder Richard Hendricks. It would be a nice surprise if either won, but unfortunately they have to face Tambour, who has the momentum to win multiple awards for his role as a transgender woman. Like Louis-Dreyfus you need a large bet for it to pay off, but Tambour is a lock for his second straight Emmy.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder – Even

Claire Danes, Homeland – 6/1

Taraji P Henson, Empire – 12/1

Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black – 20/1

Keri Russell, The Americans – 5/1

Robin Wright, House of Cards – 17/10

Besides swapping out Elizabeth Moss for Keri Russell, nothing else has changed in this category from last year. As First Lady Clair Underwood, it’s hard to believe that Wright can find ways to be more sadistic and manipulative than she has in the past, but she pulls it off. Davis is coming off the momentum of her win last year and has the most favorable odds. But I also I wouldn’t sleep on Tatiana Maslany, and Claire Danes’s Carrie Mathison is always a wildcard. All solid selections, but I’m going all in on with first time nominee Keri Russell. The Americans has been praised by the critics since it premiered in 2013 and it’s about time it’s being recognized by the Television Academy. As a Soviet agent posing as an American family in Washington D.C. towards the end of the Cold War, Russell’s Elizabeth Jennings was always more focused on the mission at hand than her husband and fellow spy Philip, who in the past has questioned their motives. This season it’s Elizabeth that’s second guessing herself when the side effect of one of her missions breaks up a friend’s family. It’s a deserving performance four years in the making, and the odds make for a decent payout.

Kyle Chandler, Bloodline – 20/1

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot – 2/3

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul – 6/1

Matthew Rhys, The Americans – 5/1

Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan – 33/1

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards – 11/5

I like Matthew Rhys for all the reasons I just gave about Keri Russel. Chandler is also great as the patriarch of the damaged Rayburn family, and it’s hard not be a fan of Odenkirk’s Jimmy McGill. However, front runner and first time nominee Malek seems to have the upper hand. Mr. Robot was the surprise hit of last summer; a cool show about anti-establishment computer hackers that critics and Emmy voters can get behind. Malek is haunting as the troubled Elliot Alderson, the narrator and computer programmer recruited to bring down on the conglomerate ‘Evil Corp.’ As discrete as the character tries to be, Malek brings an intensity that can’t be avoided. It’s a performance that could earn him multiple nominations in this category for years to come.

Best Comedy Series

Black-ish – 14/1

Master of None – 6/1

Modern Family – 14/1

Silicon Valley – 33/1

Transparent – 8/1

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt – 14/1

Veep – 1/5

Other than Black-ish and Master of None, the other nominees were all up for this award last year. Both newcomers are a welcome breath of fresh air, and from what I’ve seen of the other nominees this year, the final product has been on par on what they’ve done in previous seasons (and many don’t consider Transparent a comedy). So how is it possible that after losing its creator and showrunner Armando Iannucci after season 4 that Veep is coming off arguably its best season? All of the insults and ridicule are still there, but they were more cutting edge and persistent. It’s the best written comedy on television that’s going to make you laugh out loud, plain and simple. Last year I picked Modern Family mostly because of its five year winning streak, but also because it was a safe pick in the eyes of Emmy voters. Not anymore. The payout isn’t very enticing, but Veep is the logical bet.

Best Drama Series

Better Call Saul – 33/1

Downton Abby – No Chance in Hell (just kidding 33/1)

Game of Thrones – 1/4

Homeland – 25/1

House of Cards – 20/1

Mr. Robot – 3/1

The Americans – 8/1

Besides first-time nominee Mr. Robot, none of the other shows in this category have favorable odds. And it’s understandable. Homeland best days seem to be behind it, and the absurdity of House of Cards seems to be gaining momentum. The payout for The Americans could make for a nice bet, and four years of acclaim might score it a win. Mr. Robot makes you pay attention with its many twists and turns, and could win for its newfangled style. But like Veep, Game of Thrones is coming off perhaps its best season. Maybe it has to do with the show moving beyond George R.R. Martin’s books and the plot lines are now in unknown territory. But mostly Thrones keeps finding ways to top itself. Until this season I believed the ‘Blackwater’ episode from season two was the show’s best. Now I’m not so sure. This season’s ‘Battle of the Bastards’ has been handed the crown, and it was followed up by a finale that was equally as shocking and intense. If Mr. Robot keeps its edginess, it might one day win this category. For now, Game of Thrones is still the ruler of the top prize of the evening. 

2016 NFL Preview

Last offseason most of the National Football League talk was about Deflategate. This summer its stink still lingered as a federal court of appeals sided with the NFL, enforcing that Article 46 is absolute. Regardless of what you think about him, the ruling reinforced that Commissioner Roger Goodell has the power to reign and dish out discipline as he pleases.

The decision reinstated New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s four game suspension, which is a royal kick in the you know what for Patriots fans. For most fans outside of New England Brady and the cheating Patriots got what they deserved. But if Goodell would do this to one of the game’s most popular players for not rolling over and bowing down to the shield what does that mean for the rest of the league?

Goodell could theoretically impose a similar punishment to an impact player on another team for not cooperating like Brady and in the process piss off an another entire fan base. In response what are fans supposed to do? Stage a boycott? With the popularity of the NFL it’s highly unlikely. Will the players look to challenge Article 46 when the next collective bargaining agreement ends in 2020? Also unlikely. Since the players’ median salary is roughly $900K they need their pay checks more than the billionaire owners do, so most players can’t afford a lockout.

With Goodell imposing his wrath on the Patriots and costing them their franchise quarterback for a quarter of a season is New England ready to give up their AFC crown? The Pats have won seven straight division titles and are primed to make another run to their sixth straight AFC Championship game. As for the rest of the league seven other teams that made the playoffs last season made the postseason the year before (Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Seattle, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Arizona). Are we going to see more of a shakeup in 2016? We’ll find out over the next four months, where Sundays and the shield rule once again.

Postseason Picks:

AFC Wild Card:                               NFC Wild Card:

                                                           

(6) Raiders over (3) Bengals             (3) Packers over (6) Buccaneers

(5) Steelers over (4) Texans              (5) Cardinals over (4) Redskins

AFC Divisional Round:                    NFC Divisional Round:

(1) Patriots over Raiders                  (1) Panthers over Cardinals

(2) Chiefs over Steelers                     (2) Seahawks over Packers

Championship Round:

Patriots over Chiefs

Seahawks over Panthers

Super Bowl:

Patriots over Seahawks

With the First Pick in the 2017 NFL Draft…

I’m looking at you Cleveland Browns, with the San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions rounding out the top five.

Robert Griffin III

The Browns are looking to recover from the Johnny Football hangover and are banking on Robert Griffin III to show some flashes of his 2012 Rookie-of-the-Year season and bring some stability to the quarterback position. The return of receiver Josh Gordon in Week 5 will make a nice target for RGIII, but in a physically tough division the Browns still have a long hill to climb.

New head coach Chip Kelly inherits a rebuilding project in San Francisco. Forget the fact that he has to play both Seattle and Arizona twice, but when Blain Gabbert and ignoramus Colin Kapernick are vying for the starting quarterback position you know it’s going to be a long season.

The Titans are hoping quarterback Marcus Mariota will not suffer a sophomore slump, and Demarco Murray is looking to rebound from his embarrassing season in Philly. However, Tennessee decided to bring back Mike Mularkey as head coach, who went 2-7 as interim coach last year after Ken Wisenhunt was fired after Week 8. Mularkey’s 18-39 regular season record as a head coach speaks for itself.

Philly overhauled their coaching staff, cut high-priced players brought in by Chip Kelly, and traded up to draft quarterback Carson Wentz. These are all smart moves, but now that quarterback Sam Bradford is out of town, wins are going to be hard to come by.

After a decline in completions and yards every year since 2011, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford had somewhat of a bounce back season in 2015. Losing big target Calvin Johnson to retirement is not going to make things easier. And when the betting odds for your head coach (Jim Caldwell) to be the first coach fired in 2016 are not in your favor, look for Detroit to be in the mix for a top draft pick in 2017. 

Health Can Make All the Difference

I’m referring to the devastating injuries to Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo and Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. If both were going to be under center going into Week 1 then Dallas and Minnesota would be contending for playoff spots. Now I’m not so confident.

Dak Prescott

Romo is going to be out 6-10 weeks with a compression fracture of the L1 vertebra, and at 36 years of age I can only imagine the healing process is going to be on the longer side (unless he goes to Ray Lewis’s doctor). Can fourth-round rookie quarterback Dak Prescott keep Dallas in contention until Romo returns? In one of the worst conferences in football it’s possible, but when you bring in Mark Sanchez as insurance don’t be surprised if they’re competing with Philly for a second straight last place finish in the NFC East.

As for Bridgewater, his dislocated right knee and torn ACL has sidelined him for the season. With a strong defense, an aging but still top running back (Adrian Peterson), and a young core of exciting receivers, the Vikings feel their time is now. They blatantly overpaid and swapped a first-round pick for Sam Bradford, who was less than stellar for the 7-9 Eagles last year. If Bradford can manage the offense and not do Sam Bradford things, a wild-card spot is not out of the question.

Super Bowl Hangover

Von Miller

The Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl not from the play of now retired Peyton Manning (who was statistically the worst quarterback in the league) but mostly from their top ranked defense. And like most Super Bowl champs a lot of things conveniently fell into place. After signing linebacker Von Miller to a record contract the defense still has the capability to be tops in the league. Second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian has some big shoes to fill, and I don't see lightning striking for a second straight year. Denver's reign at the top of the AFC West will come to an end.

Playing in January is Still a Stretch

A quick run through of the remaining mediocre teams playing tackle football on Sundays:

AFC:

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. New York has a great front seven on the defensive side, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is still Ryan Fitzpatrick. Double digit wins are feasible but not enough to overthrow the Patriots.

The Miami Dolphins are still relying on Ryan Tannehill as their quarterback. Enough said.

Putting any money on the first head coach to be fired this year? Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan isn't a bad choice.

The return of linebacker Terrell Suggs from a torn Achilles for the Baltimore Ravens is a step in the right direction, but age appears to have caught up with this team. The playoffs are still out of reach in a division with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

With a healthy Andrew Luck returning to the Indianapolis Colts a return to the playoffs is possible. However, Houston and Jacksonville have both improved, and the Colts defense isn’t scaring anybody.

Blake Bortles

The once laughable Jacksonville Jaguars have an optimistic offense with quarterback Blake Bortles and budding receiver Allen Robinson. If their defense can improve, the Jags could be the surprise team in the AFC.

Sure Philip Rivers can still sling, but the San Diego Chargers are not going to be able to hang with some of the top defenses in their division. Coach Mike McCoy could also be shown the door if San Diego falters early.

NFC:

The New York Giants have all of the capabilities to put points on the board. It’s the defense that will dictate if new head coach Ben McAdoo can make the playoffs in a watered down division.

The Chicago Bears brought in some parts to improve the defense, but lost key offensive weapons Matt Forte and Martellus Bennet. With quarterback Jay Cutler still manning the ship with limited offensive pieces the outlook in Chicago is frigid as the weather.

The Atlanta Falcons started out 6-1 in 2015 and then finished 2-7. Which team will take the field in 2016? With question marks all over the defense, look for the latter.

Todd Gurley

With quarterback Drew Brees not showing any signs of slowing down anything is possible in the Big Easy. The offense will score, but the New Orleans Saints defense will give up points too. It’s not enough to make the playoffs.

The Los Angeles Rams have a sunny new home, a talented front seven on defense, and a young running back (Todd Gurley) that should compete for the rushing title. They also have four dates with Seattle and Arizona, are developing a rookie quarterback (Jared Goff), and have an unfavorable schedule.

The Playoff Teams

The Oakland Raiders are finally putting things together. Quarterback Derek Carr has the potential to breakout in his third season, and offensive targets Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and running back Latavius Murray will certainly help. Plus defensive end Khalil Mack is a game-changing beast and will compete for defensive player of the year. With the Broncos taking a step back in the AFC West Oakland is good enough for a wild-card spot.

Antonio Brown

With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and receiver Antonio Brown the Pittsburgh Steelers have the capability to boast one of the top offenses in the NFL. Losing receiver Martavis Bryant for the year due to his suspension will hurt, but running back Le’Veon Bell is one of the best in the game when he’s not missing games for failing to show up for a drug test. The defense won’t be good enough to take the AFC North title, but the Roethlisberger/Brown combo will air it out to the postseason.

The Kansas City Chiefs won 11 out of their last 12 regular-season games in 2015 and their first playoff game since 1993. Quarterback Alex Smith isn’t going to light up the stat board but manages an effective offense with running back Jamaal Charles, receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce. With a top-ten defense still intact the Chiefs have the talent to make a deep playoff run.

The Cincinnati Bengals are similar to Kansas City. They have a stout defense and quarterback Andy Dalton has multiple options on offense. They’ve made the postseason the past five seasons but have yet to make it out of the first round. Is there any indication that will change this season? They have the talent to win the AFC North, but head coach Marvin Lewis needs to figure out their playoff woes.

That leaves the Houston Texans to come out of the AFC South. After an abysmal performance by quarterback Brian Hoyer against the Chiefs in the wild-card round last year the Texans brought in Brock Osweiler from the Broncos to man the offense. With a competent quarterback under center and a stiff defense Houston can win a relatively easy division.

NFC:

Jameis Winston

I’m going all in on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their defense rounded out the top ten last season and they found their quarterback in Jameis Winston. With the help of big targets Michael Evans, Vincent Jackson and a resurgence of Doug Martin to bolster the running game, Winston has the capabilities to manage one of the top offenses in the league. After head coach Lovey Smith was shown the door former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was handed the keys and has the talent to improve on their six wins. If Winston can make a big leap in his sophomore season Tampa will be the surprise team of the NFC and make their first postseason appearance since 2008.

With Romo’s injury, the Eagles rebuilding and the Giants defensive woes, the door is wide open for the Washington Redskins to win the NFC East. Kirk Cousins proved that he can man an offense and be a serviceable quarterback. The organization is confident enough in Cousins that they finally parted ways with RGIII, their second overall pick in 2012 (in case you had forgotten). The Redskins are not the most talented team in the division but nine wins just might be enough to take the title.

Also coming out of the NFC South will be the reigning NFC Champs Carolina Panthers. League MVP Cam Newton was exceptional last season and will look to shake off his poor performance in the Super Bowl. The return of Kelvin Benjamin from injury will help solidify the receiving corps and add to the already solid rushing attack. The secondary will be more exposed with the loss of cornerback Joss Norman to Washington, but linebacker Luke Kuechly is still patrolling the defense. The well-rounded Panthers will again be playing deep into the playoffs.

Last season the Green Bay Packers started off like you would expect at 6-0 going into the bye in Week 7. They would only win four more games and suffer three unheard of losses at Lambeau Field that included the last game of the regular season to lose the division to the Vikings. Besides his injury plagued season in 2013 quarterback Aaron Rodgers arguably had his worst season since 2010. With receiver Jordy Nelson returning from a knee injury and running back Eddie Lacy deciding to actually train in the offseason Rodgers will look to bounce back to his MVP form.

The Arizona Cardinals are the trendy pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and rightfully so. They boasted the top ranked offense last season and added pass rusher Chandler Jones to their fifth ranked defense. Does anyone else remember Carson Palmer’s four interceptions in the NFC Championship game against Carolina in January? The week before that the Cardinals barely squeaked past Green Bay at home in overtime for Palmer’s FIRST playoff win at the age of 36 (with the Carolina loss, his playoff record is 1-3). The Cardinals will dominate during the regular season and will compete for the NFC West title, but Palmer needs to move past his big-game jitters if he wants to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.

The Super Bowl

Along with Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers the Seattle Seahawks have arguably the best quarterback in the NFC. But Newton seems to care more about his touchdown celebrations and his wardrobe than diving for a loose football in the most important game of his life. Russell Wilson might not be all that flashy but he knows what it takes to win a championship. Beast Mode may not be running the rock anymore but it’s not going to matter. When Marshawn Lynch was on the shelf after Week 10 last year, Wilson threw 24 touchdowns and one interception as the Seahawks won six of their last seven games. The defense should be dominant again, and if Wilson can keep up his rapport with his receivers, Seattle has the talent and know how to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady

In last year’s preview I said the New England Patriots would be playing with an “us against the world” attitude and picked them to win the Super Bowl. Obviously I was wrong. They made it to the AFC Championship game in Denver and were a missed extra point and two-point conversion from reaching another Super Bowl. Their woes continued when Brady’s suspension was reinstated in April, and all eyes will be focused on backup Jimmy Garoppolo during the first four games of the season. If Brady was playing with a chip on his shoulder last year, how motivated do you think he’s going to be when he returns in Week 5? At age 39 he’s shown no sign of slowing down. The defense has the talent to be one of the best in the league, and even without Brady head coach Bill Belichik knows how to scheme against anybody. For Patriots fans nothing will be sweeter than if Roger Goodell has to hand the Lombardi Trophy to Pats owner Robert Kraft in Houston next February. Anything less will be unacceptable. You won’t see a more climactic moment on television in 2017, and it needs to happen. In a rematch of Super Bowl 49 the Pats will be champions once again.    

2016 MLB Mid-Season Awards

So far in 2016 we’ve seen a handful of celebrity deaths, a presidential primary that has produced arguably the worst two candidates in 40 years, and a country on edge with the tragic and senseless shootings in Orlando and more recently in Dallas. In the world of sports, besides the city of Cleveland winning its first title in over 50 years over a team that suffered an epic collapse in the NBA finals after breaking the regular season wins total, it’s been a pretty bland year so far. Peyton Manning retired after winning a lackluster Super Bowl, the Pittsburgh Penguins won the Stanley Cup in front of struggling TV ratings, and we all witnessed the disgrace that was the Kobe farewell tour. In all honesty, none of it was all that memorable.

In baseball there’s been a couple of early season surprises (Baltimore), but nothing too far out of the ordinary. The Minnesota Twins are really bad (which many predicted) and the Cubs are really good (which many also predicted). Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta threw his second career no hitter, but mostly it’s the young superstars that are taking over the game and making headlines.

There were a total of 79 players that made this year’s All-Star teams between injuries and replacements. Of those 79 players, 33 of them were making their first trip to the mid-summer classic. On the American League squad besides Red Sox DH David Ortiz, the remaining starters were all 26 years old or younger, with the infield being the youngest ever. The play from this crop of young talent should make for an enjoyable second half, as well as some close playoff races in both leagues. But as always before we can move on, it’s time to hand out mid-season awards.

A.L. Rookie of the Year – Michael Fulmer, SP, Detroit Tigers

Texas outfielder Nomar Mazara is going to be a player. Since the 21-year-old was called up on April 10^th, he has been a solid contributor to the first place Rangers, batting .282 with 11 home runs. What stands out for Fulmer is his 33 1/3 scoreless inning streak, which lasted from May 21^st through June 17^th. It’s the longest scoreless inning streak by a rookie since Fernando Valenzuela tossed 35 scoreless innings in 1981. On top of that Fulmer has a 9-2 record with a 2.11 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 76.2 innings. He’s been a bright surprise to the Tigers rotation, who are currently fighting for a wild-card spot in the American League.

N.L. Rookie of the Year – Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story started out the season with a bang, hitting seven home runs in his first six games. He quickly come back down to earth and has cooled off considerably since then. Going into the season Seager was a strong favorite by many to win this award, and so far he hasn’t disappointed, leading all rookies at the break with 105 hits as well as his own team in batting average (.297). Cardinals rookie and fellow shortstop Aledmys Diaz has the edge on Seager in average, RBIs and on base percentage, but Seager has slugged more home runs and the Dodgers currently hold the top wild-card spot in the National League. If Seager continues contributing for a post-season team, look for all of the pre-season predictions to come true.

A.L. Cy Young – Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians

You can give votes to Chris Sale, Chris Tillman, Cole Hamels, Marco Estrada, Corey Kluber, and even Steven Wright, but Salazar has quietly developed into the best starter on a team with 52 wins. He’s second in the American League in ERA (2.75), has tallied 117 strikeouts, has double digits wins (10), and opponents are batting a mere .204 against him. There’s some good competition, but manager Terry Francona has the Indians headed in the right direction and sitting on top of the A.L. Central. If Salazar can continue his production and leads the Indians to a division title, he should be the favorite for his first Cy Young.

N.L. Cy Young – Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Madison Bumgarner is having a stellar season for the San Francisco Giants. He holds a 1.94 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and boasts a 10-4 record for the Giants that lead the N.L. West with a league best 57 wins. Needless to say he’s been pretty dominant, but not as dominant as Kershaw. The Dodgers ace has a better ERA (1.79) and WHIP (0.96), and while Bumgarner has one more strikeout at the break than Kershaw (146 to 145), Kershaw has only walked nine batters in 121 innings pitched.

I’ll give you a moment to let that sink in.

Kershaw also has double-digit strikeouts in nine games compared to Bumgarner’s four. Plus in Kershaw’s 16 starts, the Dodgers are 14-2 and are knocking on the post-season door. As good as Bumgarner and other starters in the N.L. have been, (Cueto, Syndergaard, Strausberg, Arrieta, Fernandez) this contest isn’t really that close.

  

A.L. MVP – Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

There’s no clear cut favorite for this award. Mike Trout would probably run away with it if the Angels weren’t atrocious and sitting at the bottom of the A.L. West. At 40-years-old, David Ortiz is off to an offensive season that we’ve never seen before, but being a DH is going to cost him votes. Manny Machado is one of the main reasons why the Orioles are in first place in the A.L. East. There’s also Robinson Cano, Xander Bogaerts, Josh Donaldson and Ian Desmond. However Altuve is currently leading the A.L. in hits (119), average (.341), is second in stolen bases (23), and is playing gold-glove caliber second base. The Astros ended the month of April with a 7-17 record. Since then they’ve gone 41-24, and Altuve has batted .354 over that time. If Altuve keeps up his stellar play, look for the Astros to keep surging in the second half.

N.L. MVP – Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs

You could make a very strong argument that this award should also go to Kershaw for all of the reasons I listed above, but I have to lean more towards Bryant because of his versatility. Known for being a third baseman, Bryant has also played 46 games in left field, 11 in right, five at first base, and he even chipped in one game at short stop. He is also currently leading the N.L. in home runs (25) and runs scored (73). His teammate Anthony Rizzo is also having a good season and both are heating up at the right time, but Bryant is the best all-around player and does more for one of the top teams in the National League.

Some Advice for the DC Movie Franchise

Warner Bros. recently released the trailer for the R-rated Ultimate Edition of Batman Vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice to coincide with the film's Digital HD release on June 28^th and Blue-ray release on July 19^th. Although we see several brief clips of what was not in the original version, will an extended edition make the film any better or (pardon the pun) do it justice? After being lambasted by a majority of critics, Warner Bros. is certainly hoping so.

I wouldn’t go as far as some critics that filed Dawn of Justice under one of the worst superhero movies ever made. Sure it was a blah and sometimes confusing movie that started out slow, ran a little too long, and had too many unnecessary sub spots, but I would much rather sit through Dawn of Justice again than 1997’s Batman & Robin or 2007’s Ghost Rider. Give me more time and I could probably rattle off at least half a dozen more (including the recent X-Men: Apocalypse). And as pessimistic as I originally was, Ben Affleck didn’t ruin Batman. It was the script and plot that did that.

So where did director Zach Snyder, and Warner Bros for that matter, go wrong? With Dawn of Justice the DC Universe movie train has already left the station, and will continue in August with Suicide Squad. If history tells us anything it’s that comic book movies are generally successful, and there’s no telling how far DC will ultimately go. What could have the team at Warner Bros. done differently to receive a warmer reception out of the gate and secure a more optimistic future? Most of the following scenarios would have been highly unlikely, but as a fan it’s always fun to speculate.   

Don’t Go So Dark

Most superhero movies aren’t all bright and shiny, mostly because things are blowing up and complete cities are being destroyed. However some of the Marvel films provide a slight bit of comic relief. None of that is evident in Dawn of Justice. If you’re going to make a straight Batman movie, go as dark as possible. Batman’s whole existing is to thrive in the shadows and not to be seen. He lives in the dark and uses it to impose fear, which Christopher Nolan didn’t shy from in the Dark Knight Trilogy. Superman was always the perfect good ol’ boy that could do no wrong by helping everybody, and adding Wonder Woman into the mix is a recipe for a lighter tone. Hell even Christopher Reeve made Clark Kent a harmless goofball. The R rating of the Ultimate Edition certainly isn’t going to brighten the mood.

Speaking of Christopher Nolan…

Throw a Ton of Money at Christopher Nolan

What the average fan might not know that along with being a producer, Christopher Nolan is given a writing credit for Snyder’s Man of Steel (a decent, re-watchable movie), while only being an executive producer on Dawn of Justice. Now I’m not saying that Snyder isn’t a capable director, by why not offer Nolan a lucrative amount of money to write/produce/direct the franchise? We all know what he did with his Batman reboot and its widely positive critical and fan reception. When you’re budget before marketing costs is roughly $250 million, what’s another $20 million to reel in a director. Plus if Nolan’s on board, maybe throwing similar money at Christian Bale might convince him to once again don the bat suit. One can only wonder.

Utilize the DC Television Universe

Zach Snyder said in an interview before the release of Dawn of Justice that he would never use Grant Gustin as The Flash. For readers that don’t know Gustin plays the speedster on The WB Network’s successful television show. The reason Snyder wouldn’t cast Gustin:

“I just don’t think it was a good fit. I’m very strict with this universe, and I just don’t see a version where … that (tone is) not our world.”

Pretty much Snyder is saying the tone of the show is too soft. If he took my advice in my first point, maybe Gustin would work. The Flash television show, while sometimes corny, focuses a lot on friendships and personal relationships. But maybe that’s why the show, and its counterpart Arrow about Oliver Queen as The Green Arrow (also a member of the Justice League at one time in the comics), have built up such a cult following. To take it one step further, the network’s DC’s Legends of Tomorrow include the characters Hawkman, Hawkwoman, the Atom and Firestorm, all of who have also been members of the Justice League in the old comic book universe. I understand the new DC films are focusing on the modern Justice League (in the comics I read growing up Cyborg was a Teen Titan), but all of the television characters have identities and backstories that many fans know and would want to see in the films somewhere down the line. I know I would.

And finally…

Take a Page from Marvel’s Playbook

Marvel’s Avengers is pretty much their version of the Justice League. Before the 2012 film Marvel set the groundwork with 2008’s Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk, 2010’s Iron Man 2, and 2011’s Thor and Captain America: The First Avenger. Marvel’s universe continued to expand with more sequels and characters, but the foundation was established with the original films. So far DC has given us Man of Steel before forcing Dawn of Justice on us. Besides Gal Gadot’s Wonder Woman going solo next summer, the remaining members of the Justice League won’t be the subject of their own films until after next November’s Justice League: Part One (and honestly, does Aquaman really need his own movie? Can’t he be like Black Widow and Hawkeye where we know he’s there and he’s important, but just not important enough to substantiate his own film?). Marvel’s blueprint was successful, so why wouldn’t DC take it’s time, introduce us to the essential characters and establish a narrative before bringing them all together? It would seem to make sense. Again these are all what if and what could have been scenarios, and maybe Warner Bros. plan will work out when all is said and done. One thing is certain is that if the general reception of Dawn of Justice is a sign of things to come, then any Marvel vs. DC debate will be over before it began. 

2016 MLB Preview

Slumps. We all go through them. Whether it's in our professional or even our personal life, we are all presented with challenges (some more daunting than others) that can throw us off our game. In professional sports, slumps can build over time into droughts. Excruciatingly painful droughts.

The most droughts, or seasons without winning a championship, are spread throughout the NFL. The franchises in Kansas City, Minnesota, the Jets (Ha Ha), Cincinnati, Buffalo, Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego, Tennessee, Philly, Detroit and Arizona have not won titles in at least 45 years. In the NBA the Clippers, Phoenix, Atlanta, Sacramento and Cleveland can brag about that distinction. In hockey only St. Louis, Vancouver and Toronto have the most tortured fan bases. 

Last October the Kansas City Royals broke a 30 year slump by winning the World Series, but there are franchises in Major League Baseball with longer droughts. Milwaukee and San Diego are over the 45 year mark, but unless something short of a miracle occurs, they won't be competing for a title this year. Washington, Texas, Houston and Cleveland (at least they have the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame) have longer losing spells than Milwaukee and San Diego, but they all have the potential to make some noise come October. And then there's the most tortured franchise in all of sports that I don't even have to mention. You all know who I speak of. Is this finally their year? If they play up to their expectations, the "Lovable Losers" will be a thing of the past.

American League:

Division Winners: Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros

Wild Card Winners: Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers

A.L. MVP: Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

A.L. Cy Young: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Bryon Buxton, Minnesota Twins

National League:

Division Winners: New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants

Wild Card Winners: St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals

N.L. MVP: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

N.L. Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

N.L. Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s Going to be a Long Summer.

I’m talking to the fans of the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A’s, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies as some of these teams start the rebuilding process. The Phillies made it clear last summer they were prepared to rebuild when they traded Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon. Now only Ryan Howard

Maikel Franco

and Carlos Ruiz remain from the World Series team from 2008, but the youngsters Maikel Franco and Aaron Nola are quality building blocks for the future. Their N.L. East rivals Atlanta are in the same mode of building up the farm system, evident by moving Shelby Miller and Andrelton Simmons. The return of outfielder and potential leadoff hitter Ender Inciarte to join Freddy Freeman in the lineup is a start. With the lowest payroll in baseball, the Brewers are an afterthought in a division that boasts the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates. Cincinnati has some quality young arms in Raisel Iglesias and Anthony DeSclafani, but is in the same predicament ans Milwaukee. After bringing in Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and James Shields before the 2015 season, the Padres were a popular pick to make the post-season, only to win 74 games and finish fourth in the

Raisel Iglesias

N.L. West. This winter they traded Craig Kimbrel and watched Upton sign with Detroit. The fire sale could continue this summer with Shields and fellow starter Andrew Cashner. Playing offense in Colorado is always fun, but the Rockies pitching staff has all the signs of an inflated ERA. With general manager Billy Beane running the show in Oakland, usually anything is possible with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. If you’re Beane you’re hoping that ace Sonny Gray and youngsters Marcus Semien and Billy Burns can help the A’s compete in the A.L. West. By resigning Chris Davis, the Orioles retain a power bat in an already potent lineup that includes Manny Machado and Adam Jones. If only their starting pitching reflected their offense. With Wei-Yin Chen moving to Miami, Baltimore’s starting rotation looks pretty bleak, and they’re going to have to slug their way to victories.

There’s Room for Optimism.

Bryon Buxton

In a division with the reigning champs (Kansas City), a strong rotation (Cleveland) and an offense led by Miguel Cabrera (Detroit), the Minnesota Twins are on a short list to make the playoffs. What they do have going for them is three candidates that will vie for the American League Rookie of the Year award. Top prospect Bryon Buxton is expected to be the opening day center fielder, and has all the talent to be a five-tool player. Korean slugger Byung Ho Park is going to be counted on to bring some much needed power to the middle of the lineup. Twenty-one-year-old Jose Berrios will start the season in the minors, but based on his numbers from last year (2.87 ERA, 177 strikeouts) he’s ready for an early season call up, giving the Twins a much needed ace. This might be a lost year, but the future is looking bright in Minnesota.

Don’t Be Fooled

Zack Greinke

Every season there’s a team (or two) that makes several roster moves that makes them an intriguing pick to make the post-season. Last year we were all sucked in by San Diego’s big name acquisitions. This season that honor belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks, mainly due to the addition of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to the starting rotation. With All-Star Patrick Corbin available for the entire season, Arizona has one of the brightest rotations in baseball. Paul Goldschmidt is always a MVP candidate, but the loss of A.J. Pollack to a fractured elbow is a crushing blow. Eighty wins is reachable, but in a tough division with San Francisco and the Dodgers, Arizona’s playoff hopes are still another season away.

The 80-Win Club

Here we have the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Dodgers, and every team has the potential to make the playoffs if certain areas fall into place.

Masahiro Tanaka

The A.L East is fairly wide open, and the division winner will probably not win 90 games. Tampa brought in Corey Dickerson to add some strength to their offense, however he could see his numbers dip out of the thin air of Colorado. But with Cy Young candidate Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi helming the starting rotation for the Rays, things are looking up. The good news for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka is healthy this spring. The bad news is that they’ll be without their new acquired closer Aroldis Chapman for the first 30 games of the season due to a suspension. Andrew Miller can fill in for Chapman until he returns, but the Yankees success will depend on the continued health of Tanaka and a solid contribution from the rest of their rotation.

Chris Sale

The N.L. Central is similar to the East where any team has a post-season shot. The Tigers landed one of the top pitching free agents in Jordan Zimmerman, and Justin Verlander showed some brief sparks of his old Cy Young form down the stretch last season. Verlander will need to stay healthy and continue to pretend it’s 2012 for the Tigers to succeed. Chicago did some good things by bringing in Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie to bolster their defense. There additions could be enough to vault them to the post-season, especially with ace Chris Sale starting every five days.  Unfortunately after Sale and Jose Quintana the rest of the rotation drops off.

Mike Trout

Out West all eyes are usually on MVP candidate Mike Trout. The pitching staff with Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney and Jered Weaver should be respectable, but the rest of the offense around Trout needs to produce. In Seattle the rotation with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker has the potential to be one of the best in baseball. For the Mariners to succeed Robinson Cano needs to have a bounce-back season, and the bullpen has to be better in all areas from last year.

Pittsburgh will miss A.J. Burnett in the rotation, but still have Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. They boast one of the best outfields in baseball led by Andrew McCutchen, but the rotation after Cole and Liriano will have to contribute if the Pirates want to compete with the Cardinals and Cubs. The Dodgers took a big loss with Greinke, but still have the best pitcher in the game with Clayton Kershaw. They have some young talent in Joc Pedersen and promising rookie Corey Seager, and new manager Dave Roberts should give this team a spark to keep them in the hunt for their fourth straight N.L. West title.

The Enigma

The Boston Red Sox surprised everyone by winning the World Series in 2013. They followed up their success story with two straight last place finishes in the A.L. East. This offseason they did the right thing by bringing in ace David Price and top closer Craig Kimbrel. Their young stars Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Blake Swihart have all of the potential to improve. So what’s the cause for

David Price

concern in Beantown? Before last year they looked to add to their offense and paid ludicrously for Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. Hanley was a failed experiment in left field, and the Sox are hoping he fairs better at first base, but more importantly he needs to stay on the field (105 games played last year). Sandoval has looked so unimpressive in spring training that manager John Farrell is going with Travis Shaw as his starting third baseman, leaving $17 million on the bench. Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly are all returning to a rotation that boasted a 4.39 ERA last season. Can Price give the rest of the rotation the boost to drive this team to the playoffs? Does 40-year-old David Ortiz have one more 30 home run and 100 RBI season left in him? With Betts and Jackie Bradley, Jr. the outfield defense will be stellar, but will Ramirez’s inexperience at first make the infield defense suffer? If Sandoval is unhappy due to lack of playing time, will he be a disturbance in the club house? This team has the talent to win a wide open division, but Farrell is going to be on a short leash to begin the season. If the Sox struggle coming out of the gate, Farrell could be shown an early exit, and it could be another disappointing summer in Boston.

Playing in October

The Toronto Blue Jays did lose David Price as well as Mark Buehrle’s 15 wins, but they still have reigning MVP Josh Donaldson anchoring the top offense in the American League. If Marcus Stroman can build off his strong late season return from last season, it should be enough for the Blue Jays to

Josh Donaldson

repeat as division champions. With Corey Kluber winning the Cy Young in 2014, the Cleveland Indians had high expectations going into last season, but came up short of the post-season. Along with Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar make up the best rotation in the A.L. Central, and the expectations are there again. With a full season of Francisco Lindor, Cleveland’s offense has the potential to improve to contend for a wild card spot. The Royals didn’t have the same high expectations last spring after losing James Sheilds. They only went on to dominate the division and win the World Series. The core of the roster is back again, and the champs showed the successful bullpen formula in the post-season that included Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis. If they can draw the same success from their starters, another division title is in sights. Texas has a full season of Cole Hamels, and Yu Darvish is expected to return from Tommy John surgery. Veterans Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltran and Shin-Soo Choo should anchor the offense, and second baseman Rougned Odor is a star in the making. With a healthy Darvish the Rangers will push for the second wild card.

The reigning National League Champion New York Mets lost World Series hero Dan Murphy to division rival Washington, but were able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes to keep some pop in the offense.

Jacob deGrom

It will be the young arms Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steve Matz that will lead the Mets back to the post-season. The San Francisco bolstered their rotation by bringing in Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. It’s been two seasons since they’ve reached the post-season (won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014), so the Giants are due. Not much has changed in St. Louis, but manager Mike Matheny will have the Cardinals competing for a playoff spot for the sixth straight season. For the past several seasons the Washington Nationals have been pre-season picks by many to make a deep post-season run, but were bounced in the Division series in their only playoff appearances in 2010 and 2012. They lost Jordan Zimmerman, but still have Cy Young hopfuls Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. With MVP candidate Bryce Harper coming into his prime, the Nats will compete for the second wild card in the National League.

This is Finally Their Year

Carlos Correa

Last season the Houston Astros surprised the baseball world and made the post-season for the first time in ten years. Dallas Keuchel took the A.L. Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa is on the fast track to be one of the best players in baseball, and he’s only 21. Their young core of Keuchel, Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve won’t sneak up on anyone this year. They took the eventual champion Royals to five games in the Division Series, and with a year of post-season experience under their belt look for the Astros to make a deep playoff run.

Things seem to be falling into place for the Chicago Cubs, and for a team that hasn’t been to the World Series since 1945, it’s about time. Jake Arrietta has developed

Kris Bryant

into a reliable ace, and he will look to look to duplicate is Cy Young winning season from a year ago. To join his former teammate Jon Lester, the Cubs brought in veteran John Lackey, who knows all about pitching in October. Along with Rookie of the Year and budding star Kris Bryant, the Cubs have an abundance of young talent in Addison Russel, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and newly signed Jason Heyward. Manager Joe Maddon brought this team to the post-season last year for the first time since 2008, and will look to build on being swept in the NLCS. The Cubs have all the pieces in place, and will finally break the longest championship drought in all of sports and win their first World Series in 108 years.