2016 NFL Preview

Last offseason most of the National Football League talk was about Deflategate. This summer its stink still lingered as a federal court of appeals sided with the NFL, enforcing that Article 46 is absolute. Regardless of what you think about him, the ruling reinforced that Commissioner Roger Goodell has the power to reign and dish out discipline as he pleases.

The decision reinstated New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s four game suspension, which is a royal kick in the you know what for Patriots fans. For most fans outside of New England Brady and the cheating Patriots got what they deserved. But if Goodell would do this to one of the game’s most popular players for not rolling over and bowing down to the shield what does that mean for the rest of the league?

Goodell could theoretically impose a similar punishment to an impact player on another team for not cooperating like Brady and in the process piss off an another entire fan base. In response what are fans supposed to do? Stage a boycott? With the popularity of the NFL it’s highly unlikely. Will the players look to challenge Article 46 when the next collective bargaining agreement ends in 2020? Also unlikely. Since the players’ median salary is roughly $900K they need their pay checks more than the billionaire owners do, so most players can’t afford a lockout.

With Goodell imposing his wrath on the Patriots and costing them their franchise quarterback for a quarter of a season is New England ready to give up their AFC crown? The Pats have won seven straight division titles and are primed to make another run to their sixth straight AFC Championship game. As for the rest of the league seven other teams that made the playoffs last season made the postseason the year before (Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Seattle, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Arizona). Are we going to see more of a shakeup in 2016? We’ll find out over the next four months, where Sundays and the shield rule once again.

Postseason Picks:

AFC Wild Card:                               NFC Wild Card:

                                                           

(6) Raiders over (3) Bengals             (3) Packers over (6) Buccaneers

(5) Steelers over (4) Texans              (5) Cardinals over (4) Redskins

AFC Divisional Round:                    NFC Divisional Round:

(1) Patriots over Raiders                  (1) Panthers over Cardinals

(2) Chiefs over Steelers                     (2) Seahawks over Packers

Championship Round:

Patriots over Chiefs

Seahawks over Panthers

Super Bowl:

Patriots over Seahawks

With the First Pick in the 2017 NFL Draft…

I’m looking at you Cleveland Browns, with the San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions rounding out the top five.

Robert Griffin III

The Browns are looking to recover from the Johnny Football hangover and are banking on Robert Griffin III to show some flashes of his 2012 Rookie-of-the-Year season and bring some stability to the quarterback position. The return of receiver Josh Gordon in Week 5 will make a nice target for RGIII, but in a physically tough division the Browns still have a long hill to climb.

New head coach Chip Kelly inherits a rebuilding project in San Francisco. Forget the fact that he has to play both Seattle and Arizona twice, but when Blain Gabbert and ignoramus Colin Kapernick are vying for the starting quarterback position you know it’s going to be a long season.

The Titans are hoping quarterback Marcus Mariota will not suffer a sophomore slump, and Demarco Murray is looking to rebound from his embarrassing season in Philly. However, Tennessee decided to bring back Mike Mularkey as head coach, who went 2-7 as interim coach last year after Ken Wisenhunt was fired after Week 8. Mularkey’s 18-39 regular season record as a head coach speaks for itself.

Philly overhauled their coaching staff, cut high-priced players brought in by Chip Kelly, and traded up to draft quarterback Carson Wentz. These are all smart moves, but now that quarterback Sam Bradford is out of town, wins are going to be hard to come by.

After a decline in completions and yards every year since 2011, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford had somewhat of a bounce back season in 2015. Losing big target Calvin Johnson to retirement is not going to make things easier. And when the betting odds for your head coach (Jim Caldwell) to be the first coach fired in 2016 are not in your favor, look for Detroit to be in the mix for a top draft pick in 2017. 

Health Can Make All the Difference

I’m referring to the devastating injuries to Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo and Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. If both were going to be under center going into Week 1 then Dallas and Minnesota would be contending for playoff spots. Now I’m not so confident.

Dak Prescott

Romo is going to be out 6-10 weeks with a compression fracture of the L1 vertebra, and at 36 years of age I can only imagine the healing process is going to be on the longer side (unless he goes to Ray Lewis’s doctor). Can fourth-round rookie quarterback Dak Prescott keep Dallas in contention until Romo returns? In one of the worst conferences in football it’s possible, but when you bring in Mark Sanchez as insurance don’t be surprised if they’re competing with Philly for a second straight last place finish in the NFC East.

As for Bridgewater, his dislocated right knee and torn ACL has sidelined him for the season. With a strong defense, an aging but still top running back (Adrian Peterson), and a young core of exciting receivers, the Vikings feel their time is now. They blatantly overpaid and swapped a first-round pick for Sam Bradford, who was less than stellar for the 7-9 Eagles last year. If Bradford can manage the offense and not do Sam Bradford things, a wild-card spot is not out of the question.

Super Bowl Hangover

Von Miller

The Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl not from the play of now retired Peyton Manning (who was statistically the worst quarterback in the league) but mostly from their top ranked defense. And like most Super Bowl champs a lot of things conveniently fell into place. After signing linebacker Von Miller to a record contract the defense still has the capability to be tops in the league. Second-year quarterback Trevor Siemian has some big shoes to fill, and I don't see lightning striking for a second straight year. Denver's reign at the top of the AFC West will come to an end.

Playing in January is Still a Stretch

A quick run through of the remaining mediocre teams playing tackle football on Sundays:

AFC:

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. New York has a great front seven on the defensive side, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is still Ryan Fitzpatrick. Double digit wins are feasible but not enough to overthrow the Patriots.

The Miami Dolphins are still relying on Ryan Tannehill as their quarterback. Enough said.

Putting any money on the first head coach to be fired this year? Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan isn't a bad choice.

The return of linebacker Terrell Suggs from a torn Achilles for the Baltimore Ravens is a step in the right direction, but age appears to have caught up with this team. The playoffs are still out of reach in a division with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

With a healthy Andrew Luck returning to the Indianapolis Colts a return to the playoffs is possible. However, Houston and Jacksonville have both improved, and the Colts defense isn’t scaring anybody.

Blake Bortles

The once laughable Jacksonville Jaguars have an optimistic offense with quarterback Blake Bortles and budding receiver Allen Robinson. If their defense can improve, the Jags could be the surprise team in the AFC.

Sure Philip Rivers can still sling, but the San Diego Chargers are not going to be able to hang with some of the top defenses in their division. Coach Mike McCoy could also be shown the door if San Diego falters early.

NFC:

The New York Giants have all of the capabilities to put points on the board. It’s the defense that will dictate if new head coach Ben McAdoo can make the playoffs in a watered down division.

The Chicago Bears brought in some parts to improve the defense, but lost key offensive weapons Matt Forte and Martellus Bennet. With quarterback Jay Cutler still manning the ship with limited offensive pieces the outlook in Chicago is frigid as the weather.

The Atlanta Falcons started out 6-1 in 2015 and then finished 2-7. Which team will take the field in 2016? With question marks all over the defense, look for the latter.

Todd Gurley

With quarterback Drew Brees not showing any signs of slowing down anything is possible in the Big Easy. The offense will score, but the New Orleans Saints defense will give up points too. It’s not enough to make the playoffs.

The Los Angeles Rams have a sunny new home, a talented front seven on defense, and a young running back (Todd Gurley) that should compete for the rushing title. They also have four dates with Seattle and Arizona, are developing a rookie quarterback (Jared Goff), and have an unfavorable schedule.

The Playoff Teams

The Oakland Raiders are finally putting things together. Quarterback Derek Carr has the potential to breakout in his third season, and offensive targets Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and running back Latavius Murray will certainly help. Plus defensive end Khalil Mack is a game-changing beast and will compete for defensive player of the year. With the Broncos taking a step back in the AFC West Oakland is good enough for a wild-card spot.

Antonio Brown

With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and receiver Antonio Brown the Pittsburgh Steelers have the capability to boast one of the top offenses in the NFL. Losing receiver Martavis Bryant for the year due to his suspension will hurt, but running back Le’Veon Bell is one of the best in the game when he’s not missing games for failing to show up for a drug test. The defense won’t be good enough to take the AFC North title, but the Roethlisberger/Brown combo will air it out to the postseason.

The Kansas City Chiefs won 11 out of their last 12 regular-season games in 2015 and their first playoff game since 1993. Quarterback Alex Smith isn’t going to light up the stat board but manages an effective offense with running back Jamaal Charles, receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce. With a top-ten defense still intact the Chiefs have the talent to make a deep playoff run.

The Cincinnati Bengals are similar to Kansas City. They have a stout defense and quarterback Andy Dalton has multiple options on offense. They’ve made the postseason the past five seasons but have yet to make it out of the first round. Is there any indication that will change this season? They have the talent to win the AFC North, but head coach Marvin Lewis needs to figure out their playoff woes.

That leaves the Houston Texans to come out of the AFC South. After an abysmal performance by quarterback Brian Hoyer against the Chiefs in the wild-card round last year the Texans brought in Brock Osweiler from the Broncos to man the offense. With a competent quarterback under center and a stiff defense Houston can win a relatively easy division.

NFC:

Jameis Winston

I’m going all in on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their defense rounded out the top ten last season and they found their quarterback in Jameis Winston. With the help of big targets Michael Evans, Vincent Jackson and a resurgence of Doug Martin to bolster the running game, Winston has the capabilities to manage one of the top offenses in the league. After head coach Lovey Smith was shown the door former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was handed the keys and has the talent to improve on their six wins. If Winston can make a big leap in his sophomore season Tampa will be the surprise team of the NFC and make their first postseason appearance since 2008.

With Romo’s injury, the Eagles rebuilding and the Giants defensive woes, the door is wide open for the Washington Redskins to win the NFC East. Kirk Cousins proved that he can man an offense and be a serviceable quarterback. The organization is confident enough in Cousins that they finally parted ways with RGIII, their second overall pick in 2012 (in case you had forgotten). The Redskins are not the most talented team in the division but nine wins just might be enough to take the title.

Also coming out of the NFC South will be the reigning NFC Champs Carolina Panthers. League MVP Cam Newton was exceptional last season and will look to shake off his poor performance in the Super Bowl. The return of Kelvin Benjamin from injury will help solidify the receiving corps and add to the already solid rushing attack. The secondary will be more exposed with the loss of cornerback Joss Norman to Washington, but linebacker Luke Kuechly is still patrolling the defense. The well-rounded Panthers will again be playing deep into the playoffs.

Last season the Green Bay Packers started off like you would expect at 6-0 going into the bye in Week 7. They would only win four more games and suffer three unheard of losses at Lambeau Field that included the last game of the regular season to lose the division to the Vikings. Besides his injury plagued season in 2013 quarterback Aaron Rodgers arguably had his worst season since 2010. With receiver Jordy Nelson returning from a knee injury and running back Eddie Lacy deciding to actually train in the offseason Rodgers will look to bounce back to his MVP form.

The Arizona Cardinals are the trendy pick to win the Super Bowl this year, and rightfully so. They boasted the top ranked offense last season and added pass rusher Chandler Jones to their fifth ranked defense. Does anyone else remember Carson Palmer’s four interceptions in the NFC Championship game against Carolina in January? The week before that the Cardinals barely squeaked past Green Bay at home in overtime for Palmer’s FIRST playoff win at the age of 36 (with the Carolina loss, his playoff record is 1-3). The Cardinals will dominate during the regular season and will compete for the NFC West title, but Palmer needs to move past his big-game jitters if he wants to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.

The Super Bowl

Along with Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers the Seattle Seahawks have arguably the best quarterback in the NFC. But Newton seems to care more about his touchdown celebrations and his wardrobe than diving for a loose football in the most important game of his life. Russell Wilson might not be all that flashy but he knows what it takes to win a championship. Beast Mode may not be running the rock anymore but it’s not going to matter. When Marshawn Lynch was on the shelf after Week 10 last year, Wilson threw 24 touchdowns and one interception as the Seahawks won six of their last seven games. The defense should be dominant again, and if Wilson can keep up his rapport with his receivers, Seattle has the talent and know how to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady

In last year’s preview I said the New England Patriots would be playing with an “us against the world” attitude and picked them to win the Super Bowl. Obviously I was wrong. They made it to the AFC Championship game in Denver and were a missed extra point and two-point conversion from reaching another Super Bowl. Their woes continued when Brady’s suspension was reinstated in April, and all eyes will be focused on backup Jimmy Garoppolo during the first four games of the season. If Brady was playing with a chip on his shoulder last year, how motivated do you think he’s going to be when he returns in Week 5? At age 39 he’s shown no sign of slowing down. The defense has the talent to be one of the best in the league, and even without Brady head coach Bill Belichik knows how to scheme against anybody. For Patriots fans nothing will be sweeter than if Roger Goodell has to hand the Lombardi Trophy to Pats owner Robert Kraft in Houston next February. Anything less will be unacceptable. You won’t see a more climactic moment on television in 2017, and it needs to happen. In a rematch of Super Bowl 49 the Pats will be champions once again.