Betting on the 2016 Emmy Awards

If there’s one thing 2016 will be remembered for is the passing of some notable celebrities. Some of the biggest names have come out of the world of music, such as Prince, David Bowie and Glen Frey. Other personalities include boxing icon Muhammed Ali, former first lady Nancy Reagan, Holocaust survivor and author Elie Wiesel, author Harper Lee, producer and director Garry Marshall, and actors Alan Rickman, Patty Duke, and most recently Gene Wilder.

Three other actors that we’re sure to see on the Emmy montage this Sunday are Garry Shandling, Abe Vigoda, and Doris Roberts. Before the days of 30 Rock Shandling brought us The Larry Sanders Show, one of HBO’s most influential comedies about a late-night talk show. In 1998 it won Emmys for Outstanding Writing and Directing, and Rip Torn won Outstanding Supporting Actor in 1996. The show was nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series six times in a row, and Shandling for Outstanding Lead Actor five times.

Vigoda is more known for his role in The Godfather, but was nominated for three Emmys for his role as Detective Phil Fish on Barney Miller. The show itself was a staple at the Emmys, being nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series seven years in a row from 1976-1982, and winning for its final season. And Roberts is definitely no stranger to the Emmys. She won for Best Supporting Actress for St. Elsewhere in 1983, and won four awards for portraying Marie Barone in Everybody Loves Raymond. Overall she was nominated eleven times, including seven straight years from 1999-2005.

As for this year’s awards, as viewers we’ve lost Emmy regulars Mad Men, Parks and Recreation, and even Louie. Can newbies Black-ish, Masters of None and Mr. Robot make some noise? After losing money on tackle football and haggling over your fantasy team and all day, why not try to make some back on a primetime awards show?

(Odds figured by Bovada)

Although the odds are not available this year, here’s some quick picks for the supporting performance categories:

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Anna Chlumsky is always great as part of the Veep ensemble, but until Mom ends or Allison Janney just stops acting, Janney takes the prize.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Louie Anderson as a woman? Hard to envision. This is the most crowded acting category with seven nominees, and Captain Ray Holt, Phil Dunphy and Titus Andromedon are characters that are tough to ignore. However, all signs point towards Veep, and Tony Hale will win his third award in four years as the president’s lap dog Gary Walsh.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

The Game of Thrones trio Cersei Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen and Ayra Stark are always dangerous, but in the end it’s all about Cersei. Lena Heady takes her first Emmy.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Normally when a character dies, I can only imagine it would be difficult to continue to write a plot line for that character. It was done for Ben Mendelsohn as Danny Rayburn, but even in doing so he was not as prominent as he was in the first season of Bloodline. Even without an epic speech this season Peter Dinklage would be an easy choice, and Jon Snow was all anybody talked about. With that said I’m going with Jonathan Banks as the conflicted Mike Ehrmantraut in Better Call Saul.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt – 5/1

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep – 1/5

Laurie Metcalf, Getting On – 33/1

Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish – 18/1

Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer – 7/1

Lily Tomlin, Grace & Frankie – 9/1

It’s good to see Ellie Kemper here, who received a blatant snub last year for her role as Kimmy Schmidt, the girl acclimating to the real world and New York City after living against her will in a bunker for 15 years. The first time nominee has the best odds to dethrone Louis-Dreyfus, who is going for her fifth consecutive Emmy for her role as now former Commander-in-Chief Selina Meyer. As fun as Kemper is to watch, Louis-Dreyfus is still where to place your money. This season Meyer is conniving as ever, and Louis-Dreyfus delivers every brazen insult with perfect tenacity. Per usual you need to bet a lot to win a little, but your money is safe with Louis-Dreyfus.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish – 6/1

Aziz Ansari, Master of None – 3/1

Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth – 30/1

William H Macy, Shameless – 20/1

Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley – 12/1

Jeffrey Tambour, Transparent – 1/3

It’s good to see a couple of fresh faces in this category (sorry Jim Parsons). Aziz first broke through as part of the great ensemble of Parks and Recreation, and it’s nice to see him recognized for portraying Dev, a struggling actor in New York City in an appealing show that Aziz created. Middleditch might not play the best character on Silicon Valley, but he’s the obvious nomination choice as the neurotic Pied Piper founder Richard Hendricks. It would be a nice surprise if either won, but unfortunately they have to face Tambour, who has the momentum to win multiple awards for his role as a transgender woman. Like Louis-Dreyfus you need a large bet for it to pay off, but Tambour is a lock for his second straight Emmy.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder – Even

Claire Danes, Homeland – 6/1

Taraji P Henson, Empire – 12/1

Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black – 20/1

Keri Russell, The Americans – 5/1

Robin Wright, House of Cards – 17/10

Besides swapping out Elizabeth Moss for Keri Russell, nothing else has changed in this category from last year. As First Lady Clair Underwood, it’s hard to believe that Wright can find ways to be more sadistic and manipulative than she has in the past, but she pulls it off. Davis is coming off the momentum of her win last year and has the most favorable odds. But I also I wouldn’t sleep on Tatiana Maslany, and Claire Danes’s Carrie Mathison is always a wildcard. All solid selections, but I’m going all in on with first time nominee Keri Russell. The Americans has been praised by the critics since it premiered in 2013 and it’s about time it’s being recognized by the Television Academy. As a Soviet agent posing as an American family in Washington D.C. towards the end of the Cold War, Russell’s Elizabeth Jennings was always more focused on the mission at hand than her husband and fellow spy Philip, who in the past has questioned their motives. This season it’s Elizabeth that’s second guessing herself when the side effect of one of her missions breaks up a friend’s family. It’s a deserving performance four years in the making, and the odds make for a decent payout.

Kyle Chandler, Bloodline – 20/1

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot – 2/3

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul – 6/1

Matthew Rhys, The Americans – 5/1

Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan – 33/1

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards – 11/5

I like Matthew Rhys for all the reasons I just gave about Keri Russel. Chandler is also great as the patriarch of the damaged Rayburn family, and it’s hard not be a fan of Odenkirk’s Jimmy McGill. However, front runner and first time nominee Malek seems to have the upper hand. Mr. Robot was the surprise hit of last summer; a cool show about anti-establishment computer hackers that critics and Emmy voters can get behind. Malek is haunting as the troubled Elliot Alderson, the narrator and computer programmer recruited to bring down on the conglomerate ‘Evil Corp.’ As discrete as the character tries to be, Malek brings an intensity that can’t be avoided. It’s a performance that could earn him multiple nominations in this category for years to come.

Best Comedy Series

Black-ish – 14/1

Master of None – 6/1

Modern Family – 14/1

Silicon Valley – 33/1

Transparent – 8/1

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt – 14/1

Veep – 1/5

Other than Black-ish and Master of None, the other nominees were all up for this award last year. Both newcomers are a welcome breath of fresh air, and from what I’ve seen of the other nominees this year, the final product has been on par on what they’ve done in previous seasons (and many don’t consider Transparent a comedy). So how is it possible that after losing its creator and showrunner Armando Iannucci after season 4 that Veep is coming off arguably its best season? All of the insults and ridicule are still there, but they were more cutting edge and persistent. It’s the best written comedy on television that’s going to make you laugh out loud, plain and simple. Last year I picked Modern Family mostly because of its five year winning streak, but also because it was a safe pick in the eyes of Emmy voters. Not anymore. The payout isn’t very enticing, but Veep is the logical bet.

Best Drama Series

Better Call Saul – 33/1

Downton Abby – No Chance in Hell (just kidding 33/1)

Game of Thrones – 1/4

Homeland – 25/1

House of Cards – 20/1

Mr. Robot – 3/1

The Americans – 8/1

Besides first-time nominee Mr. Robot, none of the other shows in this category have favorable odds. And it’s understandable. Homeland best days seem to be behind it, and the absurdity of House of Cards seems to be gaining momentum. The payout for The Americans could make for a nice bet, and four years of acclaim might score it a win. Mr. Robot makes you pay attention with its many twists and turns, and could win for its newfangled style. But like Veep, Game of Thrones is coming off perhaps its best season. Maybe it has to do with the show moving beyond George R.R. Martin’s books and the plot lines are now in unknown territory. But mostly Thrones keeps finding ways to top itself. Until this season I believed the ‘Blackwater’ episode from season two was the show’s best. Now I’m not so sure. This season’s ‘Battle of the Bastards’ has been handed the crown, and it was followed up by a finale that was equally as shocking and intense. If Mr. Robot keeps its edginess, it might one day win this category. For now, Game of Thrones is still the ruler of the top prize of the evening.