And The 2019 Oscars Go To...

March 21^st, 1999. Oscar night twenty years ago. Back when the timing of the award ceremony rivaled the NCAA basketball tournament, but still 45 million viewers tuned in to see Tinseltown honor the best films of 1998.

That year the nominees for Best Picture were Shakespeare in Love, Saving Private Ryan, Life is Beautiful, Elizabeth and The Thin Red Line. Like any list of nominees, a case could be made if each film deserves to be there. If the current rule of having up to ten films be nominated was around in 1999, the field could have also included The Truman Show, Out of Sight, Rushmore, American History X, A Bug’s Life, Pleasantville, A Simple Plan or the film that has probably has the most staying power out of them all, The Big Lebowski.

At the end of the night, Shakespeare in Love beat out the World War II drama Saving Private Ryan, still considered one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history. It might not be as egregious a winner as Crash or The Artist, but Shakespeare in Love also had stiffer competition.

The truth is I would make time to sit down and watch Saving Private Ryan again, but I can’t say that about the other Best Picture nominees. Honestly, I would probably choose most of the other movies I mentioned from that year except for Saving Private Ryan.

The Hollywood awards season happens so soon that audiences don’t have much time to fully digest the nominated films, which is not always a good thing. Any year can be looked back with some criticism, with some having stronger cases than others. In my opinion, which in essence is how the winners are picked (but only by the opinions of a select few), 1999 is one of the years that deserves a do over.

Will a similar sentiment be felt if there are any considerable “upsets” during Sunday’s awards? And how will this year’s nominees be looked at 20, 10, or even 5 years down the road? Only time will tell. For now I can only speculate who will take home the trophies in the categories that hopefully will not be awarded during a commercial break (I’m looking at you, Best Sound Mixing).

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Marina de Tavira can be considered one of the first “surprise” nominations, where Emily Blunt could have squeezed in for either A Quiet Place or Mary Poppins Returns. But the Academy is always going to lean towards the indie darling over movies people actually see. Stone and Weisz could essentially cancel each other out, which leads to King, who's been the frontrunner all through award season. If Beale Street Could Talk was snubbed for Best Director and Best Picture, so look for King to score for one of the film's three nominations.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Driver snuck in here over Timothée Chalamat's addict portrayal in Beautiful Boy or even Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther. But blockbusters normally are not Oscar’s cup of tea. Surprisingly, this is Sam Elliott’s first nomination, and he captures every scene he’s in. However similar to Rockwell, Elliot might need more screen time to persuade voters. Grant could be gaining steam, but I’m going with Ali for playing world-class pianist Dr. Don Shirley. His chemistry with co-star Viggo Mortensen is terrific, and if voters are going to honor the polarizing film, this is it. Plus Ali crushing it in this season of True Detective could also sway voters. This would be Ali's second Best Supporting Actor award in three years (Moonlight, 2017).

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Like de Tavira, Aparicio is a first-time nominee, and beat out potential snub Toni Colette for Hereditary. But just like most blockbusters, the Academy turns its nose against horror and comedies. I’m all in favor of Gaga, who along with her powerful voice shows that she can act as well. But sometimes voters need to reward its veterans, and Close is certainly no stranger to Oscar let down. Going back to 1982, she’s been nominated 6 previous times with zero wins. It’s Close’s turn to take home the prize.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Dafoe’s nomination is a little unexpected here, seeing as Ethan Hawke has been continually praised for First Reformed. Bale could be a dark horse, since voters love complete transformations. And Bale has the former Vice President’s mannerisms down to a science, even gaining 40 pounds for the role. Like Gaga, I would lean towards Cooper, seeing as he learned how to play the guitar and sing to play Jackson Maine. Malek is everyone’s darling though, and even though he lip-syncs throughout the film, he captures every aspect of Queen frontman Freddie Mercury. And voters love real life portrayals. Malek wins with his first nomination.

Best Director

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

With all due respect to Pawel Pawlikowski, who I’m sure made nice film, there’s little to no excuse for excluding Bradley Cooper here. How can he direct co-stars Sam Elliot and Lady Gaga up to receive nominations and still be left off this list? Plus, people actually went and saw A Star Is Born, which I’m not sure I can say about Cold War. None of it is going to matter anyway. Besides the scenes with dog poop and full male nudity, Cuarón made a beautifully shot movie that the Academy loves, even if it is a complete snooze fest. He’s been dominating award season, and anything different here would be a complete shocker. Cuarón will win for the second time in this category (Gravity, 2014).

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

An argument could be made that other films from 2018 such as If Beale Street Could Talk, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mission Impossible: Fallout, Spiderman: Into The Spider-Verse, Eighth Grade, Widows, The Death Of Stalin, Call Me By Your Name, First Man, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Annihilation, Searching, Hereditary, or even Paddington 2 could make this short list. Personally, I’m a little surprised that a comic book film like Black Panther was nominated (even though it deserves to be), and I believe it will be a film that’s still watched and talked about several years down the road. The same goes for A Star Is Born due to its star power, and I actually believe in Cooper and Gaga’s love story as it unfolds on screen. I’m not sure if Roma, the clear-cut favorite, will have the same shelf life. Many critics will probably say I have no soul for this, but I tried to give this movie a chance. I began to doze off twenty minutes into the film, eventually fast forwarding through the remainder and making occasional stops, not feeling I missed any of the minimal plot. But looking at Oscar’s recent history with Moonlight and The Shape of Water, low-budget, coming of age stories that excel in visual achievement are king. Cuarón and Roma will walk away with the big prize of the night.

Reminiscing Over Green Day and 'Dookie'

A couple of weeks ago I was scrolling through Twitter, and came across this article from The Ringer.

You ever have a surreal moment and realize after it hits you that you know you’re getting old? In the back of my mind I knew that Green Day’s Dookie was released in 1994, towards the end of my high school years, and was played repeatedly in my first car, whether on the radio or by cassette, when I finally obtained a driver’s license. When I saw the headline ’25 Years Later,’ it took me for a bit of a loop.

The article goes on to tell a first-hand account of Green Day’s September 9^th, 1994 free concert at the Hatch Shell in Boston, which lasted for a good twenty minutes before it escalated into a full-blown riot. Several weeks earlier Green Day was the breakout band of Woodstock ’94, a concert to commemorate the 25^th anniversary of the original festival in upstate New York. That same month the band released “Basket Case,” the second single from Dookie, which was played on a continuous loop on MTV. The culmination of these events vaulted the band to commercial success, all laid by the groundwork of their third studio album released on February 1^st, 1994.

Although they never repeated the success of Dookie sales wise (10 million in the U.S.), Green Day still managed to stay relevant through the years, even while the pop punk genre fizzled out of the mainstream during the 2000s. Can they credit this sustained success to the subsequent releases after Dookie over the last quarter of a century? As someone who has maintained a fandom for the band through the years, and to remember Dookie on its 25^th anniversary, I felt obligated to do a deep dive into the band’s catalogue. If I had to personally rank their albums, and highlight some of their strengths and weaknesses, it would go something like this.

12. Warning (released October 3^rd, 2000)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “Minority,” “Warning,” “Waiting”

Many fans and critics will rank this album higher, but this is probably my least favorite album of theirs. It’s one the band’s most progressive and stripped-down record, with acoustic guitars making appearances on multiple tracks. These songs are good, but this might have been a reason that I found this album difficult to initially get into when it was first released. This was also the year of Eminem’s Marshall Mathers LP, Coldplay’s Parachutes, and Radiohead’s Kid A, so there was other music occupying my speakers. Plus, I was probably anticipating something similar to their previous album, Nimrod. Decent record, and ‘Minority’ is as catchy as they come, but not one of my go to options.

11. 1039/Smoothed Out Slappy Hours (released April 13, 1990)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “At The Library,” “Going To Pasalacqua,” “Paper Lanterns”

This is essentially Green Day’s first album, even though it mixes the release 39/Smooth and the EPs Slappy and 1000 Hours. I often associate this with Kerplunk! as the two records I needed to buy after the success of Dookie, also triggered by “Going To Pasalacqua” and “Paper Lanterns” being displayed in the band’s MTV: Jaded in Chicago ’94 concert special (which at one point had recorded on VHS, eventually wearing out the tape). The album is pretty much what you might expect; raw pop punk songs that don’t extend over the four-minute mark. It’s not great, but a decent debut with some highlights of what’s to come.

10. ¡Tré! (released December 11, 2012)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “X-Kid,” “99 Revolutions”

9. ¡Dos! (released November 13, 2012)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “See You Tonight,” “Lazy Bones,” ‘Wild One,’ “Baby Eyes,” “Wow! That’s Loud”

8. ¡Uno! (released September 25^th, 2012)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “Nuclear Family,” “Stay The Night,” “Fell For You,” “Oh Love”

Like many critics, I lump these records together, all being released within three months of each other at the end of 2012. They were overshadowed by lead singer Billy Joe Armstrong’s onstage meltdown at the iHeart Radio Festival on September 21^st of that year, leading to his essential stint in rehab and the cancellation of a number of U.S. tour dates. !Uno! is definitely the most consistent, providing a pop punk tone that is reminiscent of their early days. If ¡Tré! wasn’t partnered with the other two, I would probably have it at the bottom of this list, mostly because I’m turned off by the ballads ‘Brutal Love’ and ‘The Forgotten.’ There’s definitely some good stuff here though, although the albums never received the promotion and recognition they deserved.

7. Insomniac (released October 10, 1995)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “Armatage Shanks,” “Geek Stink Breath,” “Brain Stew/Jaded,” “Walking Contradiction”

The day had finally came. The follow up to Dookie, and a heavily anticipated album in the fall of 1995 when record releases used to mean something. At the time I remember forcing myself to like it, wanting it to be as good as its predecessor. It wasn’t by any means, but still sold over 2 million copies. The template was pretty much the same as Dookie, but with a darker tone. This was also the tour that I saw the band in a fifteen thousand seat arena, and witnessed a mob of kids bum rush and topple a security guard just to be part of the mosh pits on the floor. This was when Green Day was at the height of their powers, even if Insomniac fell a little short.

6. Kerplunk! (released January 17, 1992)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “2000 Light Years Away,” “Welcome To Paradise,” “Christie Road,” “Dominated Love Slave,” “No One Knows”

The other pre Dookie release on label Lookout! Records, and the first album to feature drummer Tré Cool. It also came out four months after Nirvana’s Nevermind, so grunge was on the rise, but Kerplunk! still had some initial success for an independent label. The record is slightly more polished than 39/Smooth, and also significantly better. It would go on to sell 1 million copies in the U.S., but most importantly it helped pave the way for the band to sign with Reprise Records and eventually record Dookie.

5. Revolution Radio (released October 7, 2016)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “Bang Bang,” “Revolution Radio,” “Still Breathing,” “Forever Now”

Bouncing back after Armstrong’s meltdown, this record is reminiscent of the band’s previous rock operas American Idiot and 21^st Century Breakdown, evident in Armstrong’s attack on social issues and the mini-opera track ‘Forever Now.’ In a year where some of the top critically reviewed albums came from Kanye West, Chance the Rapper, and Beyoncé, a rock throwback to some of the band’s stronger material was a pleasant surprise. Any run of the mill fans should definitely give it a listen.

4. 21^st Century Breakdown (released May 9, 2009)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “Know Your Enemy,” “Before The Lobotomy,” “Peacemaker,” “Last Of The American Girls,” “The Static Age,” “21 Guns”

Produced by Butch Vig, famously known for producing Nirvana’s Nevermind, this is the band’s second rock opera. Similar to its predecessor American Idiot, it takes on social issues and authority as it follows the story of a young punk couple. The album displays some of the band’s best songwriting, building on what they accomplished in American Idiot. It went on the win Best Rock Album at the 2010 Grammy’s, the second time they’ve won in that category.

3. Nimrod (released October 14, 1997)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “Nice Guys Finish Last,” “Hitchin’ A Ride,” “Redundant,” “Scattered,” “Good Riddance (Time Of Your Life)”

Green Day is three chord power punk at its core, but this is the record they begin to diverge into new territory. The album features harmonicas (“Walking Alone”), horns (“King For a Day”), a surf-rock instrumental (“Last Ride In”), and a very successful acoustic ballad (“Good Riddance”). The result is a more melodic effort, and a sign the band was maturing from being punk brats. With 18 tracks that clock in close to 50 minutes, it was their most extensive and complex effort until…

2. American Idiot (released September 24, 2004)

Tracks to keep on repeat: “American Idiot,” “Holiday,” “Boulevard Of Broken Dreams,” “Wake Me Up When September Ends”

Doing their best Who impersonation, American Idiot is Green Day’s first punk rock opera that also brought them back to relevance. It’s charged with politically motivated and adult themes, and it shows in the band’s mature songwriting. Two of the songs (“Jesus Of Suburbia,” “Homecoming”) are mini-operas themselves, and both reach the 9-minute mark. The album sold over 6 million copies in the U.S., won Best Rock Album and was nominated of Album of the Year at the 2005 Grammys, and spawned a Tony Award winning Broadway musical. It’s considered by many as not only one of the best albums of 2004, but of the entire decade.

1. Dookie (released February 1, 1994)

Tracks to keep on repeat: Besides the whole album? “Burnout,” “Chump,” “Longview,” “Basket Case,” “Welcome To Paradise,” “She,” “When I Come Around”

No real surprise here seeing as this piece is commemorating this album. Besides its critical acclaim and critical success that launched Green Day’s career, what else can be said about this record? Top album of 1994? It’s in some prestigious company, but deserves to be there. One of the best albums of the 90s? An argument can certainly be made. It even garnered a tweet from Serena Williams (yes, the tennis phenom) on its anniversary that the album changed her life “for the better,” and she thanked the band members by tagging them individually.

But regardless if you’ve had the feeling like me that you're getting old and perhaps lost touch with Green Day, there’s no doubting the pop cultural impact of Dookie. So go to Apple Music, Spotify, or even dig out your old CD if that still suits your fancy, and crank up these three-chord classics for old times sake. You'll be thankful that you did.

The Best Possible Championship Sunday

In my divisional round post last week, I provided a statistic that the underdogs covered against the spread in 14 out of the last 15 playoff games. Out of the four games last weekend, the New Orleans Saints were the only home favorite not to cover. This is fairly typical in the divisional round, where home teams are 21-7 straight up since 2011. 

I would say as football fans we benefited from the results of last week following this pattern, providing the best matchups the league could have asked for on Championship Sunday. Whichever teams come out on top, it’s not going to be a boring Super Bowl. Let’s just hope these games can live up to the hype.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Los Angeles Rams

The makeup of these teams is very similar: offensive minded coaches with multiple playmakers that can put points on the board. Rams quarterback Jared Goff didn’t have a strong game stat wise against the Dallas Cowboys last week, but it didn’t matter. Running backs Toddy Gurley and C.J. Anderson (really?) torched the Cowboys defense for a combined 238 yards and 3 touchdowns. Can they repeat this performance against the Saints defense that was second in stopping the run during the regular season? Indoors on turf will certainly help. However, the Superdome is where the Saints thrive, where head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees are 6-0 in home playoff games. Including last week’s game against Philly, Brees has been near perfect at home, throwing 23 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Away from Los Angeles, Goff has 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. If the Rams have to keep on relying on the run game, the Saints have a slight edge on the defensive side of the ball. In what has all the makings of a shootout, give me Brees and the best wideout in the game Michael Thomas. Look for the Saints to move on to Atlanta.

Saints 38, Rams 34

New England Patriots (+3) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last week I thought that the Indianapolis Colts were going to upset the Kansas City Chiefs. I factored the Colts recent record (10 wins in their last 11 games) and thought quarterback Andrew Luck and Indy’s offensive line could exploit Kansas City’s defense. What I didn’t take into account was a dome team playing in cold weather on the road, and that during their hot streak Indy defeated quarterbacks Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott and Eli Manning. Not exactly Murderer’s Row. Meanwhile Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes showed no signs of nerves in his first playoff game. The Patriots silenced all of the haters by easily dismantling the L.A. Chargers, with the offense looking like typical Pats football. The problem this week is quarterback Tom Brady and company won’t be in the friendly confines of Foxboro. The Pats were 3-5 on the road this season, and in those five losses their defense allowed opposing running backs (Jaylen Samuels, Brandon Bolden, and Kerryon Johnson, just to name a few) to torch them for 111.6 yards per game. Not a good sign for a team that hasn’t won a road playoff game since 2006 going against the number one offense in the league. But Brady’s “everyone thinks we suck” comment after the game proves he still plays with a chip on his shoulder. Do I really want to pick against the G.O.A.T. when he’s an underdog? Plus in the coaching matchup, I’ll take Bill Belichick over Andy Reid, who is 1-4 in Conference Championship games. If the Pats can continue to keep the ground game clicking and control the clock, which they just showed they can do against a better Charger defense, they can pull off the road upset. Look for the ball in Brady’s hands with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, leading the Pats to a matchup against Drew Brees in the Super Bowl.

Now who wouldn’t want to see that?

Patriots 31, Chiefs 28

Breaking Down Division Weekend (With a Little History)

Here’s a few things that have significant anniversaries/birthdays this month:

Fifty years ago a little English rock band released their premiere album in the United States. You might have heard of them. The album Led Zeppelin made its debut to the world on January 12^th, 1969. Upon its initial release, Rolling Stone magazine labeled Jimmy Page “an extraordinarily proficient blues guitarist” in their review of the album. They then went on to say:

“Unfortunately, he is also a very limited producer and a writer of weak, unimaginative songs, and the Zeppelin album suffers from his having both produced it and written most of it”

They certainly missed the mark on that one.

Fans of fossil rock know Jimmy Page went on to write some of the most notable guitar riffs in rock history, starting with the album’s opening track, “Good Times Bad Times.” The album itself is a classic staple, incorporating a hard rock and blues sound that would define the band over the next decade. Not to mention introducing a genre that would influence countless bands since.

Jimmy Page also happened to turn 75 on January 9^th.

  

Happy 45^th to the sitcom Happy Days, which premiered on ABC on January 15^th, 1974 and ran for eleven seasons. Not only was the show immensely popular and gave us one of the coolest television characters of all time in Arthur “The Fonz” Fonzarelli, it made Ron Howard a household name and helped launch his directing career, spawned spinoffs Laverne & Shirley (RIP Penny Marshall), Mork & Mindy, and even Joanie Loves Chachi, created the phrase “jump the shark,” and gave us the setting for Weezer’s “Buddy Holly” video. Not too bad.

On January 9^th, 1984, Van Halen released their sixth studio album, remarkably titled 1984. Now fans might argue that it’s not their best record, but at the time it certainly became their most successful, introducing synth pop riffs to Eddie Van Halen’s signature guitar. During the early days of MTV, cheesy videos from this album were on a consistent rotation that they were burned into my young memory forever. For those who might have missed the boat:

Not only was 1984 a defining album of the 80s, it marked the end of David Lee Roth as lead singer of the band, paving the way for the Van Hagar era. If you’re not a Van Halen fan, trust me when I say it was all downhill from there.

The Sopranos made its debut on HBO on January 10^th, 1999. As part of its 20^th anniversary, HBO2 has been airing a marathon that wrapped this past Thursday. For anyone who watched the show in its heyday that might have casually tuned in to an episode and ended up binging a whole season will be reminded of why it still holds up as the best television drama of all time.

HBO

I mentioned in a previous post, and it’s been said countless times before, that The Sopranos was the first show to give us an antihero in Tony Soprano that viewers could not wait to tune in to see every Sunday, rooting for him even though we knew he was a ruthless mob boss. Without The Sopranos, there might have never been Walter White, Dexter Morgan, Don Draper or Ray Donovan. If you’ve never seen an episode, do yourself a favor and carve out some time over the next couple of winter months and check it out. You’ll be happy that you did.

And finally for you hardcore history buffs, Thomas Paine's Common Sense was first published on January 10th, 1776, advocating for the American colonies to seek independence from Great Britain. It was essentially the nations first best seller, influencing the signers of the Declaration of Independence and the founders of this great nation.

Before I dive into this weekend’s matchups, it should be noted that, according to OddShark, over the last 15 playoff games going into last season, the underdogs are 14-1 against the spread. Pretty crazy, right?

Will that trend continue this weekend? I guess you’ll have to force yourself to watch some football over the next couple of days to find out.

Indianapolis Colts (+5,5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Last week against the Texans the Colts started like gangbusters, but failed to score in the second half after opening up a 21-0 lead in the second quarter. They're going to have to put up more points against quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the top offense in the league if they're going to win this game. And they should be able to. Where the Chiefs strengths lie on the offensive side of the ball, the defense is a different story, finishing second to last during the regular season. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck should be able to exploit this weakness behind his strong offensive line. The Chiefs also seemed to have lost a little of their edge after releasing running back Kareem Hunt before Week 13, losing two out of their last three. Mahomes will be under a microscope after tossing over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns this season. Will the second-year quarterback succumb to the pressure as his young contemporaries Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky did last week? If he plays with the same poise as he did during the regular season, he should be fine. However the Colts are hot, winners of 10 of their last 11. Their defense won't be able to completely contain Mahomes, but should be able to keep it close, especially if the weather plays its part. There's also the Andy Reid factor, who is 1-4 as the Chiefs head coach in the post-season. Look for Luck and the Colts to pull off the upset. 

Colts 34, Chiefs 31

Dallas Cowboys (+7) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Has anyone noticed the recent play of Rams quarterback Jared Goff? He finished the season by throwing four touchdowns against the lowly 49ers, but in the four games leading up to Week 17 he had only two touchdowns and six interceptions, which included back to back losses to Chicago on the road and Philly at home. Losing safety blanket Cooper Kupp for the season after Week 10 certainly did not help. The Rams still have running back Todd Gurley, who might struggle against the Cowboy’s defense, which excels at stopping the run. The same can’t be said for the Rams defense, which allowed 122.3 yards per game on the ground during the regular season. That should bode well for running back Ezekiel Elliot, who torched the Seahawks for 137 yards last week. The Dallas defense and their ability to control the clock should keep it close, but Rams coach Sean McVay has been anointed the new offensive genius of the NFL, so much so that newly hired coaches are being referred to as his friend in their team’s press releases. Seriously. Let’s see if McVay can live up to the hype and win his first playoff game, where there’s sure to be an abundance of Cowboys fans making plenty of noise in the Coliseum.

Rams 27, Cowboys 24

Los Angeles Chargers (+4) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Last week I made a point that the Dallas Cowboys benefited in a mediocre conference. If there’s a worse conference than the NFC East, it’s the AFC East. The Patriots beat up the weak competition and were darlings of their division again, winning their eleventh straight division title. They did have early season wins against playoff teams Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Chicago. They also suffered road losses to Jacksonville, Detroit and to Miami on a fluke lateral play to end the game that ultimately cost them the number one seed. Not typical New England Patriot football. Many in the national media believe these are signs that the Patriots dynasty is coming to a close, and it very well could be. Tight end Rob Gronkowski looks like all of his injuries are catching up with him, quarterback Tom Brady has shown signs of trepidation from pressure in the pocket, and reliable wide receiver Julian Edelman led the league in dropped passes this season. Not a good sign for this tough matchup for the Pats. Chargers defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are as good as they come, and the Los Angeles defense as a whole registered seven sacks against a putrid Ravens offense last week. Will L.A. be hindered from a physical game in Baltimore to fly across country again to play in below freezing temperatures? Perhaps. But the Chargers haven’t been bothered from where they’ve had to play this year, going 8-1 on the road with last week’s win. They have yet, however, to play in Foxboro, where the Pats were undefeated this season. Brady and coach Bill Belichick haven’t lost a playoff game in Foxboro since 2012, winners of 9 straight post-season games at home. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers against the Patriots in his career? 1-7, including 0-4 in Foxboro. This game could define Rivers’ legacy, and everyone outside of New England will be rooting for him. It’s unfortunate the national audience is going to be let down. The Patriots win a close one with the home field edge.

Patriots 24, Chargers 21

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-8) over Philadelphia Eagles

Did the Eagles win their wild-card game last week, or did the Chicago Bears give it away? If Cody Parkey’s kick bounces in the opposite direction, then Foles magic comes to a tragic end. Granted the Eagles came back on the road against a tough defense, but they were also going against Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who didn’t rise to the pressure of his first playoff game. Containing Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the rest of the New Orleans offense is going to be a different story, especially in the Superdome. Not including their throwaway game in Week 17, the Saints average 37 points a game at home. Is Philly going to be able to keep up? Not to mention Saints head coach Sean Peyton’s little motivation tactic from earlier this week.

A little unorthodox, but highly effective. We’ll soon see if it drives the Saints to a Super Bowl title.

Saints 30, Eagles 17

(Finally) A Competitive Wild Card Weekend

As we turn the calendars from 2018, it’s hard to believe that we will soon be closing the door on another decade in another twelve short months. Over the course of 2019, be prepared for “Best of” lists from most publications covering every aspect of pop culture (some will probably be created in this blog). As for the NFL, if any player or coach can maintain a job in the league for over ten years, they should consider themselves lucky.

Currently Bill Belichick, Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, and John Harbaugh are four head coaches that were hired in their existing positions before 2010 (so long, Marvin Lewis). When you win a Super Bowl, it tends to add to your shelf life as a head coach. Out of this short list, only Tomlin failed to lead his team to post-season this year. Instead, these successful veterans will face off against first-timers Matt Nagy, Frank Reich, and Anthony Lynn as well as some familiar faces in Jason Garrett, Bill O’Brien, Andy Reid and Pete Carroll.

For players, it’s a lot tougher to stay healthy and on the field, which can contribute to the average NFL career being only 3.3 years. The league, however, has implemented multiple rules to protect quarterbacks going back to 1995, leading many pass-throwers to avoid major injuries and to now thrive at the position.

Of the quarterbacks playing this post-season, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers began their careers before 2010, while Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Nick Foles were all drafted in 2012. Only Rivers and Luck have not won a Super Bowl, but both have played in a conference championship game. To add to the excitement this January, new playmakers Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and (I guess) Mitch Trubisky will be making their first playoff starts.

What does any of this mean? When it comes to the playoffs, experience certainly plays a factor. However, last season we did witness Philly head coach Doug Pederson, in his first trip to the post-season, guide the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory by out coaching the more experienced Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. After a regular season that was filled with inconsistent play week after week, this year’s playoffs are completely up for grabs. At least this weekend we don't have the quarterback play of Connor Cook, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Lindley to look forward to.

Before breaking down this weekend’s games, here’s one more quick quarterback stat:

What do Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Stafford and Derek Carr all have in common?

They are currently the top six highest paid quarterbacks in the league. And they will all be watching the playoffs from home.

Your 2018 NFL, everyone.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

If there’s one thing I know that I can count on, it’s that the Houston Texans and/or the Cincinnati Bengals are going play on Wild Card Saturday. It’s like death and taxes. After a slow start (0-3), the Texans pulled off nine in a row, with victories against powerhouses Buffalo, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, Washington, and even a win in Indy in Week 4. The Colts were similar, finishing the season 9-1 after starting 1-5, including winning their last four that began with a victory in Houston in Week 14. Houston's quarterback Deshaun Watson won a National Championship at Clemson, so he knows how to handle the pressure of playing big games. His coach Bill O’Brien, on the other hand, is 1-2 in the playoffs. To O'Brien's credit, his quarterbacks in the post-season were the aforementioned Hoyer and Brock Osweiler, but the record still doesn't look good. Andrew Luck, after a great comeback season, is making his first playoff appearance since 2014, and has a little more success in the post-season (3-3) than O’Brien coached teams. The key to this game will be Indy’s strong offensive line. If they can protect Luck against J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the Houston pass rush, then the Colts move on. Look for a repeat of Week 14 in this rubber match.

Indy 27, Houston 24

Seattle Seahawks (+2) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The last time these two teams squared off on a Saturday night, this happened:

The image still haunts Cowboys fans, who have only won two playoff games since. As for this season, Dallas took advantage of playing in the mediocre NFC East, going 5-1 in the division. Their defense turned out to be pretty good, finishing seventh in the league. The Amari Cooper trade after Week 7, as illogical as it seemed at the time, revitalized the offense. Seattle closed out the season as the league’s best rushing team (160.00 yards per game) as well as winning six of their last seven. During that span, quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Cowboys only have one loss at home, but I’m siding with the playoff experience of Wilson (8-4) and head coach Pete Carroll (10-7) over Dallas QB Dak Prescott (0-1) and coach Jason Garrett (1-2). The Seahawks win a close one.

Seattle 21, Dallas 17

San Diego Chargers (+2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens have a formula for playoff success: their fearless, play strong defense, and can run the ball down your throat. All eyes will be on dynamic rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson, who took over for the injured Joe Flacco in Week 10 and has not looked back, going 6-1 as a starter to finish the season. The Chargers should have taken notes in the loss they received from Baltimore at home not that long ago in Week 16, especially on how to contain Jackson. It’s been a few years, so people might forget that Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has nine playoff games (4-5) under his belt. Jackson, on the other hand, has recent history working against him. Since 2010, rookie quarterbacks are 2-7 in the playoffs, and the two winners (TJ Yates and Russell Wilson) were facing other rookie quarterbacks (Andy Dalton and Robert Griffin III). The Baltimore defense will give Rivers fits, but his key offensive weapons, running back Melvin Gordon and receiver Keenan Allen, should both be healthy. Plus the Chargers are one of two teams this season that have a better road record (7-1) than home (5-3). Expect the veteran Rivers to seek revenge and out duel the young rookie.

Los Angeles 24, Baltimore 17

CHICAGO BEARS (-6.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

I’m a believer in Foles magic. I watched it during the Super Bowl last year as Philly quarterback Nick Foles picked apart the defense of the New England Patriots. The Eagles closed out the season 3-0 with Foles under center, sneaking into the playoffs thanks to the collapse by the Vikings. You know what else I believe in? Bears linebacker Khalil Mack being the most dominant defensive player in the NFL. The entire Chicago defensive unit is special, and will keep Foles and the Eagles offense at bay. As long as Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky manages the game and doesn’t hand it over to Philly, the Bears should win easily.

Chicago 20, Philly 10

Sunday also is the first major award ceremony for Hollywood. I’ll admit that I have not seen too many of the Golden Globe nominations, but I’m going to roll the dice anyway on some of the major categories.

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama: A Star Is Born

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy: Vice (A movie about former Vice President Dick Chaney is a comedy? Shouldn’t it be, like, a horror movie, or something?)

Best Actress, Drama: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Best Actor, Drama: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical: Christian Bale, Vice

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Vice

Best Director: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Television:

Best Series, Drama: Killing Eve

Best Series, Comedy or Musical: Barry

Best Actress, Drama: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

Best Actor, Drama: Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical: Bill Hader, Barry

Best Supporting Actress: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Best Supporting Actor: Henry Winkler, Barry