Championship Weekend

So let’s recap.

First Baltimore Raven head coach John Harbaugh blamed the New England Patriots for trickery and deception for some of the Pats' substitutions during Baltimore’s 35-31 loss in Foxborough last weekend. A few days later, he said it was about the “mechanics of the officiating” that was the issue. Either way, isn’t the whole point of football for the offense to deceive the defense so they can move the ball down the field and eventually into the end zone?

Speaking of angry Baltimore Ravens…

Former linebacker Ray Lewis made the following comments about Patriots quarterback Tom Brady this past week on Steven A Smith’s Sirius XM radio show:

“When we—the first time we created something a tuck rule, it’s the only reason we know—I’m just being honest!—the only reason we know who Tom Brady is, because of a tuck rule!”

So Tom Brady wouldn’t have won three Super Bowls, two Super Bowl MVPs, two league MVPs, twelve division titles (most by a quarterback), nineteen playoff wins (also most by a quarterback) and been elected to ten Pro Bowls if not for the tuck rule? Lewis is the same man who said in 2011 that crime would rise if the NFL lockout affected the regular season and fans couldn’t watch football on Sundays. And ESPN pays him to be an analyst? We all know what Ray Lewis was famous for early in his career, and it certainly wasn’t for football.

You knew there had to be something wrong with Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, right? During the last month of the season, Peyton was very un-Peyton like, throwing for three touchdowns and six interceptions, and it carried over into the playoffs. It turns out he was playing with a torn right quad muscle. Manning has been notorious for losing in the postseason, but he hadn't played as bad as he did last Sunday since his four interception game against New England in 2003. His eleven wins in the playoffs are marred by his now thirteen losses, with nine one-and-done appearances. After last weekend, any Brady and Manning argument can be put to bed.

The biggest question will be whether Manning returns for his 18^th season. He will be 39 in March and already has four neck surgeries under his belt. As a Pats fan, there was nothing I enjoyed more than reveling in defeating the Colts, especially in the playoffs, and seeing the Manning face make an appearance. At the same time, I grew to respect him as a player, and was lucky enough to see one of the greatest quarterback rivalries in all of modern sports. Regardless of what Manning does next year, there's no doubt that he will go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.

Welcome back to Parks and Recreation as it embarks on its thirteen episode farewell season. So far we learned in 2017 that Kevin James has rebooted the Jason  Bourne series, Shia LaBeouf designs wedding dresses, the Cubs have won the World Series, and Jerry now goes by Terry. And what could Leslie and Ron’s feud, only referred to as “Morning Star”, be all about? I’m dying to know. Unfortunately like many previous shows of Parks and Rec’s caliber, the cast has become too renowned to continue with the beloved satirical comedy, and it will surely be missed. I mean Andy Dwyer is now an action star that saves the galaxy. Who saw that coming?

And congratulations to the Ohio State Buckeyes for winning the national championship, proving that I’m not only lousy at picking professional football games, but college as well.

So after making that point, let’s try and predict this weekend’s championship games, featuring arguably the four best quarterbacks in the NFL.

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Indianapolis Colts

So what’s at stake in this game? For Tom Brady, this marks his ninth AFC Championship game, and the Patriots fourth in a row. A win will send Brady to the Super Bowl for a record sixth time for a quarterback, where he would be looking to tie Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw with a fourth Super Bowl victory. For quarterback Andrew Luck, he is beginning to show why the Indianapolis Colts cut Peyton Manning to draft him first overall in 2012. For a team that has no running game and an average defense at best, Luck has done all of the little things necessary to lead the Colts to his first AFC Championship game. Unfortunately for Luck the Pats have owned him, going 3-0 lifetime against him with an average margin of victory of 20 points, including a 42-20 win in Indianapolis in Week 11. This game shouldn’t be any different. Last week the Patriots came back from two 14 point deficits against a defense that's much better than Indy’s with a quick and precise passing game. In Week 11 against this same Indy team, the Pats ran for 246 yards. They are resilient, and head coach Bill Belichick will scheme any game plan necessary to win. They can beat you with the pass or the run. On defense the Pats pass rush is lacking, so Luck will have the opportunity to have a solid game on Sunday, but I don’t see any scenario where the Colts win. New England moves on the Glendale.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

These teams met in Week 1, where the Seahawks won at home 36-16. That was a millennium ago. Sure Seattle hasn’t lost since before Thanksgiving, and their defense is looking as good as ever. During their seven game win streak, the Seahawks faced Arizona (twice), San Francisco (twice), Philly, St. Louis and Carolina. Do you see an offensive juggernaut or a top tier quarterback like Aaron Rodgers on any of those teams? I didn’t think so. Rodgers’s decision making and execution this season have been almost flawless, which he will need to be if he wants to beat the Seahawks defense. On the other side Seattle back Marshawn Lynch should have no problem running the ball, but quarterback Russell Wilson and the passing game could struggle, especially if linebacker Clay Matthews is chasing Wilson around the field all day. Seattle also does have the advantage of the home field crowd, but Rodgers will keep this game close. Although the Packers cover, the Seahawks win to reach their second straight Super Bowl.

As for the Super Bowl, I picked Seattle over the Patriots in my season preview. Early predictions have Seattle being favorites by a field goal, but I’m going to flip my original choice and take the Pats to win on a neutral field. Brady and Belichick do it one more time to put an exclamation point on their legacy.   

An Inside Look at the Divisional Playoffs

A couple of random thoughts before delving into this weekend’s Division Playoff matchups…

RIP Stuart Scott. If you were a fan of his energetic delivery or not, he brought an attitude and swagger to sports broadcasting and ESPN that had not been present on the network. Along with Dan Patrick, Keith Olbermann, and even Craig Kilborn, he was a staple on SportsCenter in the early '90s, transforming it into the coolest and eventually the most influential highlight show on television. His humbling speech from the ESPYS last July was honest, inspirational and reminiscent of Jim Valvano, emphasizing to live and “fight like hell.” He was definitely cooler than the other side of the pillow, and his presence will surely be missed.

Congratulations to Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz for being voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. It was the first time since 1955 that four players were voted in, and they’re all deserving, especially while playing in an era marred by performance enhancers and cheaters. As a Red Sox fan, it’s bittersweet to see Pedro elected to the Hall of Fame. He was the most dominant pitcher I have ever seen, and his ’99 season (23-4, 2.07 ERA, 313 strikeouts in 213.1 innings pitched) was one of the greatest ever. His starts were events that everyone looked forward to, and he is one of the most beloved figures in Boston sports. It’s hard to fathom that there were some writers that didn’t even vote for him. They must have been too busy voting for Troy Percival, Aaron Boone and Darin Erstad (seriously?).

The entire series of Friends is now available to stream on Netflix. After Seinfeld and The Simpsons, was there a television series in the ‘90s that was more influential or made its presence known in all aspects of popular culture? The show’s strongest aspect and what made it so successful was its focus on characters before plot, and the perfect ensemble cast resonated with its audience. I hope you haven’t made any plans for the next couple of months.

This Sunday is the 72^nd Golden Globe Awards, which are thankfully being hosted again by Amy Poehler and Tina Fey. Here are some quick predictions…

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama – Boyhood

Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical – Birdman

Best Actress, Drama – Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor, Drama – Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Michael Keaton, Birdman

Best Supporting Actress – Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Supporting Actor – J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Director – Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Television:

Best Series, Drama – House of Cards

Best Series, Comedy or Musical – Orange is the New Black

Best Actress, Drama – Clair Danes, Homeland

Best Actor, Drama – Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Best Supporting Actress – Allison Janney, Mom

Best Supporting Actor – Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Now that we’re making picks…

Oregon Ducks (-6) over Ohio State Buckeyes

To say that the first year of the College Football Playoff was a success is an understatement. The selection committee picked the right teams for the playoff, and it was nice to watch meaningful bowl games on New Year’s Day. I was impressed with how Oregon manhandled Florida State on both sides of the football, and Ohio State’s win over Alabama was equally impressive. Both teams can put points on the board, and it should be an entertaining game. I like Oregon to win its first national championship.

With all that being said, let’s break down the best weekend of football of the entire year.  

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Baltimore Ravens

Two years ago before the AFC Championship game, where I picked the Ravens to cover eight points but lose against New England, and I wrote this:

The last three times they have faced each other, including last year’s AFC Championship game, have been decided by a total of seven points. Shouldn’t we expect the same type of game on Sunday? It always seems to happen when these two teams play. 

The Ravens then proceeded to trounce the Pats 28-13 before going on to win the Super Bowl. Baltimore has proved they can win on the road in the postseason, including a 2-1 record at Foxboro. They’ve had the Patriots number in recent years, and it’s making New England fans jittering in their winter boots. You know what? I’m not buying into it this year. Will the Baltimore pass rush be able to harass Pats quarterback Tom Brady? Probably. Will Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco make a big play by throwing his signature deep pass? He will try. The Pats defense is the best they’ve had in years, and cornerback Darrelle Revis will be able to stifle any deep threat. Also the last time they played in 2013, the Pats were without tight-end Rob Gronkowski. After their embarrassing Monday night loss at Kansas City in Week 4, the Pats average margin of victory in their next ten wins was 18, scoring an average of 36 points a game. This will be close early, but the Pats pull away late.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-11) over Carolina Panthers

Last weekend’s Cardinals and Panthers game was one of the worst football games I sat through in recent memory. In the back of their minds, Carolina must know they have no chance in this game and are wasting their time traveling to Seattle. In their past six games, the Seattle defense has given up only three touchdowns. The line on this game can’t be high enough. Prepare for total domination by the Seahawks.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Should the Cowboys be even playing in this game? They were handed a gift with last weekend’s infamous and controversial flag pickup, which reversed a pass interference call that would have put Detroit into field goal range with a 20-17 lead halfway through the fourth quarter (not to mention the non-call for receiver Dez Bryant coming on the field to argue the call). Even the NFL admitted the refs blew the call, but we can all speculate of how the game would have ended if the call was enforced. The luck for the Cowboys is going to need to continue on Sunday if they’re going to win in Green Bay. The biggest question mark will be the health of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who will be playing with a slight tear in his calf. It’s the same injury he hobbled through to win the division for the Packers in Week 17, so he still should be effective. The Cowboys were road worriers during the regular season, going 8-0 away from Dallas. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, Green Bay was 8-0 at home, where Rodgers passed for 25 touchdowns, no interceptions, and had a quarterback rating of 133.2. Even though Dallas should be able to run the ball, they will have difficulty on the defensive side defending the pass. In the end it will be too much of Aaron Rodgers and the elements of Lambeau Field for Dallas to handle. The Packers move on.

DENVER BRONCOS (-7) over Indianapolis Colts

Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has been in a slump lately, throwing three touchdowns to six interceptions in his past four games. Will Manning, facing his former team, suffer another one and done in the playoffs, which has happened to him eight times before? His recent play may suggest that, but Denver was also perfect at home during the regular season. The Colts are a one dimensional team on offense, and although this game has the makings of a shootout, Denver does a better job defending the pass than Indy does. Manning also has a reliable running back in rookie C.J. Anderson to fall back on, who is averaging close to 100 yards and a touchdown per game in the second half of the season. This should be an entertaining and high scoring game, but Denver has too many offensive weapons in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas for Indy to handle. Plus it wouldn’t be an AFC Championship without a Brady and Manning matchup. 

Breaking Down 2015 Wild-Card Weekend

For an NFL season that was marred by controversy off the field that showed a level of incompetence that hasn’t been seen since the replacement ref fiasco of 2012, it did have its highlights. First it was the year of the rookie wide receiver. Buffalo’s Sammy Watkins, Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans, Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin, Philly’s Jordan Matthews, Miami’s Jarvis Landry and New Orleans’s Brandin Cooks all made impacts on their respective teams. And if you happened to have the foresight to pick up Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Odell Beckham Jr. on your fantasy team, you probably did pretty well. As for Jacksonville, Minnesota and Cleveland, which drafted quarterbacks this past year, there’s always the first round of the 2015 draft.

Second could this be the first year that a defensive player wins the MVP award since Lawrence Taylor did it in 1986? Houston’s J.J. Watt has made a strong case, and will definitely win Defensive Player of the Year. He finished with 20.5 sacks, a safety, a pick six, a fumble recovery returned for a touchdown, and three touchdowns on the offensive side of the ball. He was simply dominant and almost led the Texans to the playoffs with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett and Case Keenum sharing the quarterback duties. Unfortunately for Watt, Aaron Rodgers still plays in the league, who clinched the MVP trophy by playing through a calf injury to win the NFC North in Week 17.

As exciting as the regular season was, it's always raised to another level in the playoffs. Winners of six in a row, the Seattle Seahawks look primed to make another run towards the Super Bowl. Can the Seahawks be the first repeat champions since the Patriots in 2005? Can the Cowboys remove the stink of mediocrity that has lingered in recent years and win their first playoff game since 2009? Will the Detroit Lions win their first playoff game since the George Herbert Walker Bush administration? Will Andy Dalton finally win a playoff game period? All of our questions will be answered over the next couple of anticipated weekends. Let the tournament begin.

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Is it fair for a team that finished with an 11-5 record has to travel across the country to play a road game against a team that finished 7-8-1, just because that team won the abysmal NFC South? I didn’t think so. Even though Carolina won their last four games to sneak into the playoffs, don’t forget they lost six in a row before that, and they only have one win against a team with a winning record (Detroit), which took place way back in Week 2. The biggest question is should you back Arizona's third string quarterback Ryan Lindley, who was on the San Diego practice squad to begin the season, in a road playoff game? The prospect of it is downright terrifying, and I should have my head examined for doing so. But I see the defenses setting the tempo and this being a game of field position, with not much offense and points being scored. If Lindley plays a safe game and doesn’t turn the ball over, then Arizona can keep it close. Look for a field goal to decide this juggernaut.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Baltimore Ravens

When teams from the AFC North clash, it's usually a grudge match, especially this rivalry. The bad news for Pittsburgh is they're going to be without versatile running back Le’Veon Bell. In the end it’s not going to matter. Both teams do a good job defending the run, so look for the game to take to the air. If that is the case, would you rather put your money on Ben Roethlisberger or Joe Flacco? They both have playoff experience and Super Bowl titles under their belts, but I would give the edge to Roethlisberger. He had the best receiver in the game this season in Antonio Brown, who led the league in both receptions (129) and receiving yards (1,698). The last time these teams met in Week 9, Roethlisberger torched Baltimore's secondary for six touchdowns, and Bell was a non-factor running the football (10 carries, 20 yards). Baltimore has also reaped the benefit of an easy schedule, with eight of their ten wins coming against teams with a combined record of 42-85 (.331), and only one win against a team with a winning record (Pittsburgh in Week 2). I like the Steelers to advance.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

The Colts have the advantage of playing in the AFC South, which led to a handful of creampuff victories. The Bengals are molded out of the tough AFC North like the Steelers and Ravens. But they’re still the Bengals. In the playoffs quarterback Andy Dalton is 0-3 and head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-5. I don’t trust them as far as I can throw a Hail Mary pass. If the Colts can keep talented rookie running back Jeremy Hill in check (that's a big if), and force the Red Rifle to beat them, they should have a field day like they did against Cincinnati in Week 7, where they shut out the Bengals 27-0. On the opposing side the Colts can’t run the ball worth a lick, but that’s not how they’ve won football games. Andrew Luck led the league with 40 touchdowns, and the Bengals defense isn’t good enough to stop him. There’s also the potential that Cincinnati’s primary receiver A.J. Green won’t play in Sunday’s game. All signs point towards Indy moving on.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5) over Detroit Lions

I usually look forward to watching these two teams play only when there’s large portions of turkey involved. Both of these teams, and their quarterbacks, definitely have something to prove. For Detroit, they’re looking for their first postseason win since 1991, and Matthew Stafford his first playoff victory. Dallas is trying to forget their 1-6 playoff record since 1998, and all is on the line for Tony Romo. With a 1-3 playoff record that has plagued him for the later part of his career, he desperately needs a win. It’s a good thing for the Cowboys that Romo has been on fire lately. Dallas was 4-0 in December, and Romo has tossed twelve touchdowns to one interception during that span. But this game might be decided in the trenches. A big part of Dallas’s success this year has come from NFL leading rusher Demarco Murray. Can the strong offensive line of the Cowboys open up running lanes for Murray against Detroit’s number one rushing defense? It will be fun to watch. Also keep in mind that Stafford is 0-16 in his career (yikes!) on the road against teams that end up finishing with a winning record. And then there’s this:

It’s all a recipe for a Cowboys win and the playoff woes to continue for Detroit.