And The 2019 Oscars Go To...

March 21^st, 1999. Oscar night twenty years ago. Back when the timing of the award ceremony rivaled the NCAA basketball tournament, but still 45 million viewers tuned in to see Tinseltown honor the best films of 1998.

That year the nominees for Best Picture were Shakespeare in Love, Saving Private Ryan, Life is Beautiful, Elizabeth and The Thin Red Line. Like any list of nominees, a case could be made if each film deserves to be there. If the current rule of having up to ten films be nominated was around in 1999, the field could have also included The Truman Show, Out of Sight, Rushmore, American History X, A Bug’s Life, Pleasantville, A Simple Plan or the film that has probably has the most staying power out of them all, The Big Lebowski.

At the end of the night, Shakespeare in Love beat out the World War II drama Saving Private Ryan, still considered one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history. It might not be as egregious a winner as Crash or The Artist, but Shakespeare in Love also had stiffer competition.

The truth is I would make time to sit down and watch Saving Private Ryan again, but I can’t say that about the other Best Picture nominees. Honestly, I would probably choose most of the other movies I mentioned from that year except for Saving Private Ryan.

The Hollywood awards season happens so soon that audiences don’t have much time to fully digest the nominated films, which is not always a good thing. Any year can be looked back with some criticism, with some having stronger cases than others. In my opinion, which in essence is how the winners are picked (but only by the opinions of a select few), 1999 is one of the years that deserves a do over.

Will a similar sentiment be felt if there are any considerable “upsets” during Sunday’s awards? And how will this year’s nominees be looked at 20, 10, or even 5 years down the road? Only time will tell. For now I can only speculate who will take home the trophies in the categories that hopefully will not be awarded during a commercial break (I’m looking at you, Best Sound Mixing).

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Marina de Tavira can be considered one of the first “surprise” nominations, where Emily Blunt could have squeezed in for either A Quiet Place or Mary Poppins Returns. But the Academy is always going to lean towards the indie darling over movies people actually see. Stone and Weisz could essentially cancel each other out, which leads to King, who's been the frontrunner all through award season. If Beale Street Could Talk was snubbed for Best Director and Best Picture, so look for King to score for one of the film's three nominations.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Driver snuck in here over Timothée Chalamat's addict portrayal in Beautiful Boy or even Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther. But blockbusters normally are not Oscar’s cup of tea. Surprisingly, this is Sam Elliott’s first nomination, and he captures every scene he’s in. However similar to Rockwell, Elliot might need more screen time to persuade voters. Grant could be gaining steam, but I’m going with Ali for playing world-class pianist Dr. Don Shirley. His chemistry with co-star Viggo Mortensen is terrific, and if voters are going to honor the polarizing film, this is it. Plus Ali crushing it in this season of True Detective could also sway voters. This would be Ali's second Best Supporting Actor award in three years (Moonlight, 2017).

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Like de Tavira, Aparicio is a first-time nominee, and beat out potential snub Toni Colette for Hereditary. But just like most blockbusters, the Academy turns its nose against horror and comedies. I’m all in favor of Gaga, who along with her powerful voice shows that she can act as well. But sometimes voters need to reward its veterans, and Close is certainly no stranger to Oscar let down. Going back to 1982, she’s been nominated 6 previous times with zero wins. It’s Close’s turn to take home the prize.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Dafoe’s nomination is a little unexpected here, seeing as Ethan Hawke has been continually praised for First Reformed. Bale could be a dark horse, since voters love complete transformations. And Bale has the former Vice President’s mannerisms down to a science, even gaining 40 pounds for the role. Like Gaga, I would lean towards Cooper, seeing as he learned how to play the guitar and sing to play Jackson Maine. Malek is everyone’s darling though, and even though he lip-syncs throughout the film, he captures every aspect of Queen frontman Freddie Mercury. And voters love real life portrayals. Malek wins with his first nomination.

Best Director

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

With all due respect to Pawel Pawlikowski, who I’m sure made nice film, there’s little to no excuse for excluding Bradley Cooper here. How can he direct co-stars Sam Elliot and Lady Gaga up to receive nominations and still be left off this list? Plus, people actually went and saw A Star Is Born, which I’m not sure I can say about Cold War. None of it is going to matter anyway. Besides the scenes with dog poop and full male nudity, Cuarón made a beautifully shot movie that the Academy loves, even if it is a complete snooze fest. He’s been dominating award season, and anything different here would be a complete shocker. Cuarón will win for the second time in this category (Gravity, 2014).

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

An argument could be made that other films from 2018 such as If Beale Street Could Talk, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mission Impossible: Fallout, Spiderman: Into The Spider-Verse, Eighth Grade, Widows, The Death Of Stalin, Call Me By Your Name, First Man, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Annihilation, Searching, Hereditary, or even Paddington 2 could make this short list. Personally, I’m a little surprised that a comic book film like Black Panther was nominated (even though it deserves to be), and I believe it will be a film that’s still watched and talked about several years down the road. The same goes for A Star Is Born due to its star power, and I actually believe in Cooper and Gaga’s love story as it unfolds on screen. I’m not sure if Roma, the clear-cut favorite, will have the same shelf life. Many critics will probably say I have no soul for this, but I tried to give this movie a chance. I began to doze off twenty minutes into the film, eventually fast forwarding through the remainder and making occasional stops, not feeling I missed any of the minimal plot. But looking at Oscar’s recent history with Moonlight and The Shape of Water, low-budget, coming of age stories that excel in visual achievement are king. Cuarón and Roma will walk away with the big prize of the night.