Betting on the 2015 Emmy Awards

The 67^th Primetime Emmy Awards are taking place this Sunday, where the best in television will be acclaimed for another season of quality programming. This past year we’ve welcomed some new favorites (Empire, Better Call Saul, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) and said goodbye to some classic characters and shows (Parks and Recreation, Boardwalk Empire, Mad Men). Will any of the first time nominees surprise some of the regular incumbents? Will Mad Men be rewarded with a sweep for going out on top in its final season? Will Game of Thrones finally see Emmy gold? We’ll have to suffer through a whole day of football followed by a bunch of pretty people walking the red carpet in fancy clothes first before we find out.  

(Odds figured by Bovada)

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory: 30/1

Niecy Nash, Getting On: 25/1
Julie Bowen, Modern Family: 10/1
Allison Janney, Mom: 1/3
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live: 50/1
Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent: 30/1
Jane Krakowski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: 30/1
Anna Chlumsky, Veep: 3/1

Not to take anything away from Kate McKinnon, but when you’re part of a sketch comedy show, it’s hard to develop and be associated with a specific character that these other actresses have worked to accomplish. Unfortunately McKinnon, along with Bialik, Nash, Hoffman and Krakowski, become lost in the most crowded performance category. Bowen has history on her side, being nominated for the sixth straight year with back-to-back wins in 2011 and 2012, and the payout is appealing. The line on Chlumsky, with her third straight nomination, is also tempting. And if Janney wasn’t nominated, I’d put my money on the Veep actress. I made the mistake of picking against Janney last year. I won’t do it two years in a row. Chlumsky’s blowup against Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ President Selina Meyer in the “Convention” episode is priceless, but the character doesn’t reach the emotional depth as Janney’s Bonnie, a recovering alcoholic and drug addict whose sobriety was tested this past season. You’ll have to bet a lot to win a little, but you’re money’s safe with Janney.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine: 15/1

Adam Driver, Girls: 50/1

Keegan-Michael Key, Key & Peele: 25/1

Ty Burrell, Modern Family: 3/1

Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: 5/6

Tony Hale, Veep: 2/1

So if Keegan-Michael Key is nominated, why isn’t Jordan Peele? The both are equally hilarious, which is only furthered by the duo’s chemistry. You don’t associate one without the other. As creative and unique the sketch show was, Key falls in line with Kate McKinnon. Last year I picked Braugher in this category for his deadpan satire as Captain Ray Holt, only to come up empty. The payout for him is tempting, but I expect the same futile result. As the odds-on favorite, Tituss Burgess is a welcoming and scene-stealing newcomer as the egotistical fame seeker Titus Andromedon. As good as Burgess is, I’m leaning towards Burrell. Similar to Julie Bowen, Burrell has been nominated six years in a row, winning in 2011 and again last year. His bumbling Phil Dunphy is still the most amusing character of an enjoyable but repetitive show. Plus Modern Family has an edge with its viewership over Kimmy Schmidt. Burgess will have his day, but I’m keeping it safe with Burrell.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series     

Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey: 33/1

Lena Headey, Game of Thrones: 1/3

Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones: 33/1

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men: 9/4

Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black: 10/1

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife: 25/1

Is this where Mad Men will begin its farewell sweep? Not if Lena Headey has anything to say about it. There’s no denying that Hendricks’ Joan Halloway-Harris progressed the most throughout the series, rising to partner at Sterling Cooper Draper Price only to be pushed out after the merger with McCann-Erickson, all for being a strong woman in an era where the workplace was ruled by condescending men. With her odds, it’s a solid bet. However Headey’s Cersei Lannister reached new lows this past season, forced into chains for her sins that led to her harsh and unforgettable walk of shame. Cersei’s weakness showed a side of her that we’ve never seen before, and it will bring the award to the favorite Headey. Don’t count out Abuda here either. The odds being slightly against her could make a nice side bet that could pay out handsomely. When it comes to Aduba’s ‘Crazy Eyes,’ you never know what to expect.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul: 2/7

Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline: 10/1

Jim Carter, Downton Abbey: 33/1

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones: 3/1

Michael Kelly, House of Cards: 12/1

Alan Cumming, The Good Wife: 33/1

The scene between Dinklage’s Tyrion Lannister and Emilia Clarke’s Khaleesi might have been one of the most anticipated five minutes of television drama this season, and it didn’t disappoint. Dinklage once again was superb as sharp-tonged Tyrion Lannister, reaching foreign territory in being taken captive and eventually forced into slavery. Dinklage is on his fifth nomination, but his only win was in 2011. If he had another replicable rant similar to ‘The Laws of Gods and Men’ episode from last season, I would lay my money on Dinklage. As the favorite, Jonathan Banks reprises his role as Mike Ehrmantraut, where we learn his backstory as a caring grandfather before he becomes a private investigator and enforcer for Saul Goodman in Breaking Bad. It’s a safe bet, but I’m going with long shot Mendelsohn. He brings sleaze to a new level as family black sheep Danny Rayburn, going from charming to sinister with the flick of his cigarette lighter. Bloodline slowly draws you in until it becomes addictive, and much of it is due to Mendelsohn. Look for the first time nominee in an upset.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie: 50/1

Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback: 10/1

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep: 1/4

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation: 4/1

Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer: 15/2

Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie: 33/1

How can Jane Krakowski and Tituss Burgess be nominated for Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and its main star Ellie Kemper not? Krakowski and Burgess are good, but Kemper is the life blood of the show. For the nominees we do have, I would really like to see Poehler win. Parks and Recreation sported one of the best comedy ensembles, and Poehler was their its fearless leader. It’s surprising she hasn’t won at least once in the past five years she’s been nominated, and it would nice to see her recognized as a finishing touch to the show’s farewell season. Peohler’s losses could have something to do with Louis-Dreyfus, who’s looking for her fourth straight win as now President Selina Meyer. Louis-Dreyfus continues to impress as Meyer as she leads her incompetent and superficial staff, even going as far as to secretly sabotage her own Families First bill to help her election chances. Like Janney, you’ll need a large bet for it to pay off, but Louis-Dreyfus is a sure thing.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, black-ish: 20/1

Louis C.K., Louie: 20/1

Don Cheadle, House of Lies: 25/1

Will Forte, Last Man on Earth: 12/1

Matt LeBlanc, Episodes: 25/1

William H. Macy, Shameless: 15/1

Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent: 1/15

  

Wait, where’s Jim Parsons? Are you telling me there’s an Emmy show without Sheldon Cooper? Parsons was automatic, winning four out of the last six years going back to 2009. It’s surprising he’s been left off the list. Maybe it’s time for Parsons to hand over the reins to Tambor. I would like to believe the other actors here stand a chance, but looking at the odds they’re not even close. Tambor won the Golden Globe for his portrayal of a transgender woman, and all signs point for that trend to continue with his first Emmy.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland: 20/1

Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder: 2/5

Taraji P. Henson, Empire: 3/1

Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black: 8/1

Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men: 33/1

Robin Wright, House of Cards: 10/1

Any of these actresses could take this award, and I wouldn't be surprised. Homeland made a nice comeback this past season, so that could bring the trophy back to Danes for her role as bipolar CIA agent Carrie Mathison. Wright also had her best season as conflicted First Lady Claire Underwood. This could also be the year that Moss is finally recognized as part of Mad Men’s swansong. If Hendricks wins, don’t be surprised if Moss follows suit. All would make for a nice pay day. However this seems to be a two way race between Davis and Henson. Their characters share many characteristics: powerful, fearless and dangerous, but the edge has to go to Henson. Fox has scored a hit with Empire, and after one season Henson’s Cookie Lyon has already become one of the most iconic characters on television. Davis might be the front-runner, but I’m putting my money on Henson.

Lead Actor Drama Series

Kyle Chandler, Bloodline: 25/1

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom: 33/1

Jon Hamm, Mad Men: 1/10

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul: 7/1

Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan: 25/1

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards: 9/1

This award has belonged to Bryan Cranston four out of the past seven years. Now that Heisenberg is out of the way, it’s time for Jon Hamm to finally see the recognition he wholeheartedly deserves. I like the other characters in this category, but I’m not betting against Hamm. He’s been nominated in this category every year since Mad Men premiered in 2007, only to upstaged by Cranston, Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom) and Damien Lewis (Homeland). Hendricks and Moss might be rewarded as a homage for their work on a great series, but Hamm’s performance over the last episodes was captivating up until the very end and Don Draper’s blissful vision. He’s been snubbed for way too long, and it’s finally Hamm’s turn.

    

Outstanding Comedy Series

Louie: 20/1

Modern Family: 11/4

Parks and Recreation: 25/1

Silicon Valley: 20/1

Transparent: 5/2

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: 33/1

Veep: 20/23

I gave my praises to Silicon Valley last year, and it continues to be one of the more clever comedies on television. I also really miss Parks and Rec and all of the residents of Pawnee. It would be nice if the satirical comedy could be recognized as a farewell tribute, but unfortunately it’s not going to happen. Last year I made the mistake of picking against Modern Family by going with the more daring Orange is the New Black. I thought the prison dramedy had enough character depth and absorbing plot lines to overthrow the four time reigning champ. I was wrong. Veep has the best chance to take down Modern Family, and the odds are in its favor. However Emmy voters seem to love the safe vote, and Modern Family is still an entertaining show with a lot of heart. Look for it to continue its run.

Outstanding Drama Series

Better Call Saul: 33/1

Downton Abbey: 33/1

Game of Thrones: 10/11

Homeland: 33/1

House Of Cards: 25/1

Mad Men: 4/5

Orange is the New Black: 20/1

There’s a good future for Better Call Saul, and House of Cards is coming off its best season yet. Homeland had a strong return after a sub-par third season, but Orange is the New Black seems to be going in the opposite direction. Not much happened in Orange’s most recent thirteen episodes, and it shows in the lack of acting nominations. In the end it’s going to come down to the two favorites. Game of Thrones has a knack of holding a steady hand for most of the season, and then exploding with extensive and intense action scenes in the last couple of episodes that raises its game, Now that the show has caught up with the books, it’s anybody’s guess on what’s going to happen next. This is the fourth straight nomination for the show, and with Breaking Bad out of the way, it could pick up its first award. But as the Emmys awarded Breaking Bad last year after its final season, look for the same appreciation to come to Mad Men. After taking this prize home during its four first seasons, Mad Men took a back seat to Homeland and Breaking Bad for three years, all while putting out some of its finest episodes. This final season was as good as ever as we learned the fate of Don Draper and his fellow advertising colleagues on Madison Avenue. It will take the top prize of the evening, and will be remembered as one of the finest dramas in television history.