2015 MLB Preview

If there was a major point that was reiterated by the San Francisco Giants run to the World Series this past October, it’s that a top-notch ace can make all of the difference. In the Fall Classic, Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner won Game 1, Game 5, and pitched five innings for a save in Game 7. In those three games, he pitched 21 innings (including a complete game in Game 5) with seventeen strikeouts while posting a 0.43 ERA. That’s not too shabby. One could argue that he singlehandedly carried San Francisco to their third World Series title in the last five years.

Did the Giants have a great regular season in 2014? It was good enough, but not one for the record books. They won 88 games to play in the Wild Card game, eventually going through Pittsburgh, Washington and St. Louis to beat Kansas City in the World Series. They were fourth in the National League with a .255 batting average and seventh in home runs with 132. Nobody on offense hit over 22 home runs or reached 90 RBI. Their pitching staff ranked seventh with a 3.50 ERA and second in opposing batting average at .241, with three starters throwing over 180 innings. Of course it helps that half their games are in the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park. In other words, the Giants did enough to make it to the post-season, and then allowed Bumgarner do his thing.

All of this is nothing new. Going as far back to one of the first World Series ever in 1905 where Christy Mathewson pitched shutouts for the champion New York Giants in Games 1, 3 and 5, top pitching performances have always been the highlight of October. Bumgarner was exceptional to say the least. His performance ranks among the tops in World Series history, joining names such as Mathewson, Sandy Koufax, and Bob Gibson. We’ve seen other pitchers in recent years raise their game in the Fall Classic, including Josh Beckett, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Jon Lester.

But to let your ace shine in October, you first have to make it there, which isn’t a casual stroll in the park. The regular season is too unpredictable these days, and pre-season favorites aren’t always the last team standing. This year will mark the twentieth anniversary of the first wild-card playoffs. Since its inception, a wild card team has reached the World Series twelve times with six times coming out on top (Miami 1997 and 2003, Anaheim 2002, Boston 2004, St. Louis 2011, San Francisco 2014). As the Giants showed last year, you don’t have to be great, but good enough to give yourself a chance to play October. Once your there, anything can happen, but it always helps to have an ace up your sleeve.

American League:

Division Winners: Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners

Wild Card Winners: Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels

A.L. MVP: Mike Trout, L.A. Angels

A.L. Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Steven Souza, Tampa Bay Ray

National League:

Division Winners: Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers

Wild Card Winners: Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres

N.L. MVP: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

N.L. Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

N.L. Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

World Series: Washington Nationals over Seattle Mariners

A.L East (Projected Finish)

1. Baltimore Orioles

2. Boston Red Sox

3. Toronto Blue Jays

4. New York Yankees

5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Adam Jones

What a difference a year makes. The Boston Red Sox were dismal in 2014 after coming off an emotional World Series victory in 2013. Can they rise back to the top this season? They have as good a shot as any of these teams. There’s no clear cut powerhouse in the division, and the winner probably won’t even win 90 games. The Toronto Blue Jays added third baseman Josh Donaldson to a potent lineup with outfielder Jose Bautista and first baseman Edwin Encarnacion. However the Blue Jays in recent years seem to stock up on talent, start off the season well, and are eventually an afterthought by the time September rolls around. There’s nothing here to suggest anything different. Tampa will be adjusting to life without manager Joe Maddon, and the Yankees are dealing with age, bad contracts and Alex Rodriguez. It’s a good sign that pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda are back, but they will both need to stay healthy for New York to contend. The Red Sox spent a bundle to bring in shortstop turned outfielder Hanely Ramirez and third baseman Pablo Sandoval to help bolster the offense, but are hindered with many question marks. Can 39-year-old David Ortiz continue to produce as he has in recent years? Will enigma Clay Buchholz be the starter that began the 2013 season 9-0 through June before going on the DL for a two and a half month stint? Or will he be the same dead-arm, injury-plagued pitcher that went 8-11 with a 5.34 ERA last season? Will Ramirez, who’s only played in 100 games in four of the past six seasons, stay healthy and on the field? That leaves Baltimore, which somehow won 96 games last year without a true ace. They have much of the same pitching staff coming back, and even though they lost outfielder Nelson Cruz and his 40 home runs, they still have a core of their young offense that includes outfielder Adam Jones, first baseman Chris Davis, catcher Matt Wieters and third baseman Manny Machado. Plus they’ve had proven success with manager Buck Showalter, making the playoffs two out of the past three seasons. Ninety-six wins is a reach, but the Orioles are good enough to win a mediocre division.         

A.L. Central

1. Cleveland Indians

2. Detroit Tigers

3. Chicago White Sox

4. Kansas City Royals

5. Minnesota Twins

Corey Kluber

The Detroit Tigers took a hit by losing pitchers Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, and the once dominant ace Justin Verlander seems to have lost some zip on his fastball since dating super models. The Tigers still have David Price to solidify the rotation, and with an offense led by first baseman Miguel Cabrera and newcomer Yoenis Cespedes in the outfield, that’s good enough for a wild-card spot. The reigning A.L. champion Kansas City Royals have a strong bullpen, but might have taken the biggest a hit in the division by losing ace James Sheilds. They will turn to young fire-baller Yordano Ventura to lead the rotation. If the Royals want to go back to the post-season, their offense will need to improve on their home run totals from a year ago, where they finished last place in the American League. Chicago on the other hand has improved their rotation by signing Jeff Samardzija to joint ace Chris Sale. They have one of the most exciting young players in Jose Abreau, and have brought in outfielder Melky Cabrera and first baseman Adam LaRoche to improve the offense. The Twins are still a work on progress, and should be looking more towards the future than relying on aging stars Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter. It also didn’t help that their only investment in the offseason, pitcher Ervin Santana, was suspended for 80 games for testing positive for a banned substance. The Indians are the team to look out for, with speed at the top of the order and good hitters through the middle of the lineup. With reigning Cy Young winner Corey Kluber leading a young rotation that’s full of potential, the sky’s the limit. Manager Terry Francona knows how to win, and will return to the playoffs after a year hiatus.       

A.L. West

1. Seattle Mariners

2. Los Angeles Angels

3. Oakland Athletics

4. Houston Astros

5. Texas Rangers

Felix Hernandez

The Rangers brought in pitcher Yovani Gollardo, and lefty Derek Holland will be healthy to start the season. However the rest of the rotation looks bleak after losing ace Yu Darvish for the season to Tommy John surgery. Things don’t look so promising on offense either when Prince Fielder is your marquee player. A group of young quality players around the diamond led by second baseman Jose Altuve and outfielder George Springer have Houston on the rise, but their pitching staff could still use some work. Oakland is a team that can still surprise a lot of people. They lost MVP candidate Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss, but brought in second baseman Ben Zobrist and DH Billy Butler. A’s manager Bob Melvin always finds ways to compete, but their staff takes a slide after Sonny Gray. The Angels still have reigning MVP and the best player in baseball in outfielder Mike Trout, and with pitcher Garret Richards returning from a knee injury, manager Mike Scioscia will have his team competing for a playoff spot. Seattle is ready to take the leap this year. They added speed to the top of the lineup in outfielder Austin Jackson and power in Nelson Cruz. Ace Felix Hernandez is one of the best in the business, and should have Seattle poised to make a deep playoff run in October.

N.L. East

1. Washington Nationals

2. Miami Marlins

3. New York Mets

4. Atlanta Braves

5. Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper

The Marlins made a splash in the offseason by bringing in second baseman Dee Gordon, third baseman Martin Prado and first baseman Michael Morse. They’ll join slugger Giancarlo Stanton and his new 13 year, $325 million dollar contract. More importantly is the health of young ace Jose Fernandez, who is scheduled to make a return from Tommy John surgery in June. If Miami can stay above water until his return, they could compete for a playoff spot. The Mets were hit hard by losing pitcher Zach Wheeler for the season with a torn UCL. The good news is that pitcher Matt Harvey has returned to his old form, and looks to join reigning N.L. Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom in the starting rotation. The Braves have some quality young arms in Julio Teheran and Alex Wood, but losing outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton will leave a void in the offense. There’s not much to look forward to in Philly. They’re starting to look towards the future, parting ways with longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins for minor league prospects. Ace Cole Hamels probably won’t be in a Philly uniform by the time August rolls around. The Nationals landed one of the biggest prizes in the offseason by signing pitcher Max Scherzer, who joins an already excellent rotation on a team that won 96 games last year. If outfielder Bryce Harper can stay on the field and play up to his potential, 100 wins and a World Series title is not out of the question.

N.L. Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

3. Chicago Cubs

4. Milwaukee Brewers

5. Cincinnati Reds

Jason Heyward

Are the Cubs ready to take the next step towards the post-season? Signing ace Jon Lester will certainly help, but they need to make room for third base prospect Kris Byant, who will begin the season in the minors despite his nine spring training home runs. Their young talent will be fun to watch and bring some excitement to Wrigley Field, but they’re still at least a year away. Outfielder Carlos Gomez continues to impress for the Milwaukee Brewers, and staple Ryan Braun will continue to anchor a decent lineup. However Milwaukee’s pitching staff leaves something to be desired. The Cincinnati Reds have a dynamic leadoff hitter in outfielder Billy Hamilton, who should increase on his run and steal totals in his sophomore season with a healthy Joey Votto back in the lineup. With pitcher Homer Baily beginning the season on the DL, the starting rotation drops off after Johnny Cueto, who also has a very good chance of being traded before the deadline in July. Although MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen and manager Clint Hurdle will have Pittsburgh primed for a playoff spot for the third straight year, the St. Louis Cardinals are still the team to beat. Top to bottom the Cards have the best rotation in the division, and they added outfielder Jason Heyward. They are also experienced, and manager Mike Matheny knows what it takes to reach the post-season. The Cardinals should make the playoffs for the fifth straight season.

N.L. West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. San Diego Padres

3. San Francisco Giants

4. Colorado Rockies

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Yasiel Puig

Besides not re-signing third baseman Pablo Sandoval, the Giants have returned a core of the team that won the World Series. Unfortunately for San Francisco, the Padres might be the most improved team in the offseason, bringing in outfielders Wil Myers, Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. New ace James Shields should flourish in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Arizona has a MVP candidate in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, but the Diamondbacks seriously lack starting pitching. The same can be said about the Colorado Rockies. When shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is healthy, he’s one of the top picks in your fantasy baseball league. However Coors Field can be a nightmare for pitchers, and the Rockies rotation doesn’t have enough quality arms to compete for the division. The Dodgers are going to contend with the Nationals for the best team in the National League. Although his career playoff stats are downright disturbing (1-5, 5.12 ERA. Yikes!), reigning N.L. MVP and Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher in the game. Outfielder Yasiel Puig is as exciting as they come, and although they lost Kemp to San Dieago, rookie Joc Pederson is ready to fill his shoes. Manager Don Mattingly will lead the Dodgers to their third straight division title.