A Wide-Open Wild Card Weekend

We’ve reached the end of another NFL season. During the last seventeen weeks, we witnessed the Denver Broncos become the most proficient offense in league history and Peyton Manning set a new passing touchdown record. After missing the first two games of the season due to a suspension, wide receiver Josh Gordon became the first Cleveland Brown in NFL history to lead the league in receiving, with the likes of Brian Hoyer, Branden Weeden and Jason Campbell throwing him the football. In the AFC, four teams were still alive for the final playoff spot during the last week of the season, which came down to overtime for San Diego to beat Kansas City’s second squad. In the NFC, two divisions were decided by face offs in Week 17, with an eight win team making the playoffs. Leave it to the Dallas Cowboys to lose NFC East for the third straight year on the last game of the season to once again finish in mediocrity. And the reigning champion Baltimore Ravens won’t have the chance to defend their title.

If one thing still holds true, it’s that the NFL is so unpredictable and anything can happen. This season was evident of that. How can the Pittsburgh Steelers begin the season 0-4 and come within a KC missed field goal of making the playoffs? Or the Detroit Lions giving up on their coach and losing their last four games to lose control of the NFC North and miss the postseason? Three years ago the NFC West was the laughing stock of the NFL, sending a 7-9 division champion to the postseason. This season, three teams in that division won over ten games. How the tides can turn, and it what makes the NFL so great.

This year’s playoffs should be no different. The Seattle Seahawks are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl, but they showed they’re vulnerable at home in Week 16 against Arizona’s defense, and their offense has looked stagnant at times. It’s still going to be tough for any NFC team to win in Seattle, but overall the field is wide open. The same goes for the AFC. The title game will go through Denver, but Peyton Manning is one and done in the playoffs eight times, including last year’s loss at home to the eventual champion Baltimore Ravens. It all makes for some riveting drama. With all that being said, let’s make some picks on this weekend’s matchups.

(HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1) over Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs began the season like gangbusters, breaking out to a 9-0 record. Let’s not forget that most of those wins were against teams like Jacksonville, Oakland, Houston, Cleveland and Buffalo. When playing teams that finished with winning records, they were 1-5, including a home loss to the same Colts in Week 16. Colts QB Andrew Luck has thrown eight touchdowns and one interception in his last four games, while completing 66% of his passes. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has more playoff experience than Luck and has also been playing well as of late, but had one of his worst showings of the season in his last start in the Indy game. Throw in Andy Reid’s stellar history of poor play calling and game clock management in big games, and I’ll take the Colts at home.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) over New Orleans Saints

I’m picking a rookie head coach and second year Eagles QB Nick Foles in his first playoff start against Drew Brees and Sean Payton? I should have my head examined. Brees and Peyton have the experience, and Payton knows how to call a surprise on-side kick with the best of them. But this game isn’t in the Louisiana Superdome, where the Saints were 8-0 this season, compared to 3-5 on the road. They also have never won a road playoff game, and dome teams have a poor history of playing on the road in sub-freezing temperatures. On the other side Philly has won their last four home games and seven of their last eight overall. Can Foles rise above the pressure in his first playoff start? He finished the season with the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in NFL history, tossing 27 scores to two interceptions, showing that he can protect the football. If he avoids a shootout with Brees and uses NFL leading rusher LeSean McCoy to control the tempo of the game, the Eagles should move on.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7) over San Diego Chargers

Cincinnati is still coached by Marvin Lewis, who is 0-4 in the postseason. But the Bengals posted a perfect record at home this season and have one of the top-ranked defenses in the league. That doesn’t bode well for the Chargers, who barely squeaked into the playoffs with their overtime win against KC last week. They also couldn’t figure out Cincy at home in Week 13. The Bengals have averaged 42 points a game in their last five at home, with an average margin of victory of 24 points in those games. If Bengals QB Andy Dalton can avoid throwing interceptions and give Chargers QB Philip Rivers the chance to put some points on the board, Dalton and Lewis should win their first postseason game.

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers won their division winning only eight games. Obviously this isn’t the same team that struggled without QB Aaron Rodgers, who returned last week from a broken collar bone to lead Green Bay into the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is really good, and isn’t somebody I normally like to bet against, especially when the Packers are getting points at home. But the 49ers finished the season on a six game winning streak, including wins over two of the top defenses in the league in division rivals Seattle and Arizona. San Fran’s QB Colin Kaepernick has raised his game, throwing 10 touchdowns and only one interception over that span. Plus he always has a field day when playing the Packers. With the temperatures dropping into the negative numbers, the elements aren’t going to favor the passing game. Packers running back Eddie Lacy should have trouble against the 49ers stingy defense. In the end the 49ers rushing game between Kaepernick and running back Frank Gore will be too much for the Packers defense.