Rivalry Weekend

Right now, nobody is happier than the NFL. As a fan, you should be pretty excited too. The playoffs could not have worked out any better. In the AFC, you have the best current rivalry in all of professional sports with Tom Brady going against Peyton Manning. As a Pats fan, I would always want them to have home field advantage in a conference championship game. With that being said, the San Diego Chargers coming to Foxboro this weekend just wouldn’t feel right. This is a modern day Palmer and Nicklaus, Russel and Chamberlain, or Ali and Frazier, developing since they were division rivals in 2001. Regardless of their records against each other, they will always be linked. We have been lucky to witness these all-time great quarterbacks faceoff through the years, and Sunday will add another (and possible final) chapter.

On the other side is a brewing division rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. They are the two best teams in the NFC this season, and there’s no love lost between them. It’s only fitting they will be playing with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Would Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers making a trip to Seattle feel the same? I don't think so. We couldn’t have asked for a more fitting Sunday of football. I just hope the games live up to all of the hype.

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

New England Patriots (+5.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Brady and Manning will meet for the fifteenth time on Sunday, with Brady being 10-4 against Manning overall including 2-1 in the playoffs. As far as their legacies go, they both have a good deal riding on this game. For Brady, a victory would add to his already all-time leading 18 playoff wins. He would surpass John Elway for the most starts in a Super Bowl with six. If he goes on to win the Super Bowl, he will tie with Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw with four Super Bowl wins, the most all time by a quarterback. With his regular season success and playoff record, he would have to be considered the greatest quarterback of all time.

A win for Manning would give him three appearances in the Super Bowl and even his record against Brady in the playoffs. A win in the Super Bowl would give him his second championship to tie him with (gulp!) his little brother Eli. But even more for Manning, a win on Sunday would help alleviate the fact that he doesn't rise to the pressure in big games. Yes he’s won a Super Bowl, but he’s been remembered in recent years more for his playoff defeats than his one championship, resonated by last year’s playoff loss. It will give validity to his record breaking season and that he’s more than just a great regular season quarterback. As good as Peyton is, winning the Super Bowl will vault him into the discussion with the likes of Montana, Brady and Elway as the greatest ever. I just think he’s going to come up short one last time.

The Pats offense has been on a roll lately, and the team has been averaging just under forty points in their last three games. LeGarrette Blount is pretending it’s 2008 and he’s at Oregon. I'm still waiting for him to coldcock somebody. At the same time you could also argue that Broncos offense is pretty good, and you would be right. Plus the conditions in Denver on Sunday are going to be perfect for Manning and his arsenal of offensive weapons. I’m probably crazy for betting against them. But the Pats have Belichick, who has always done a masterful job in scheming an effective defensive plan against Manning, and I think that will be the difference. Also with Brady and Belichick at the helm, the Pats are 3-0 in the playoffs when underdogs by more than four points. They have been finding ways to win with their patchwork defense, and they’ll do it again. Prepare to see a serving of the Manning face as the Pats move on to the Meadowlands.

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

In terms of history this game doesn’t have as much buildup as the AFC Championship, but you still couldn’t ask for a better matchup, with two teams building a rivalry that are very similar. They both play in what is now the best division in the NFL. They both win games with a stifling defense. They both feature top notch running games. They both have young, mobile quarterbacks that have the capacity to beat you with their legs. They display a swagger and an arrogance that make them both a little unlikable. The game is definitely going to be a grudge match.

The Seahawks have the home field edge with the twelfth man, and they beat up San Fran there 29-3 way back in Week 2. But this is a different 49ers team. During their eight game winning streak, Colin Kaepernick has been almost flawless, throwing twelve touchdowns and only two interceptions. The return of wide receiver Michael Crabtree has helped open up the offense. Also isn’t it pretty much a rule these days that a team that plays in the first round of the playoffs advances it to the Super Bowl? Since 2006, only once has a first round playoff team NOT made it to the Super Bowl. The last three Super Bowl winners all played on wild-card weekend and peaked just at the right time. That pretty much sums up this San Francisco 49ers team right now. As well as Seattle plays at home, the 49ers win a close game. Now all we have to hope for is that there’s not a blizzard in New York on February 2^nd.           

Breaking Down the NFL Divisional Round

With 2014 off and running, here’s a few thoughts before leading up to this weekend’s game picks…

Last Sunday night’s San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers game drew a 27.7 rating/44 share, meaning it was watched by an average of 47.1 million viewers. That was higher than this year’s Oscars and every NFL game last season except the Super Bowl and the AFC Championship. AND IT’S ONLY A WILD CARD GAME!!! On Saturday, NBC drew 30.8 million viewers for their two games, the most ever for a Wild Card Saturday. And on Sunday afternoon 30.1 million viewers tuned in to watch Andy Dalton gift wrap the San Diego Chargers’ victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Three of the four games almost not selling out gives a small hint that fans enjoy their warm couches and high-def TVs more than fighting frigid temperatures.

Thanks to Florida State and Auburn for not only playing an exciting and competitive National Championship Game, but for introducing the world to this guy:

I think we can all agree with J.J. Watt’s tweet and that Red Lightning should be invited to the NFL combine.

But in all seriousness, this game marked the end of the often infuriating and ridiculed B.C.S. system. As much as it did for college football and the whole bowl series, I have to say good riddance. A playoff format comparable to March Madness is long overdue. I’m already giddy.

So Dennis Rodman led a team of ex-NBA players, including a three time All-Star Weekend Three Point Champion from the early nineties, to North Korea for an exhibition basketball game? Are these guys that strapped for cash? Are they really there to pull off some Nicholas Brody style coo? Can we just leave Dennis Rodman there? The whole thing is just way too bizarre.

Congratulations to Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas for being elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. I can’t think of three more deserving players, who all exceeded in an era where performance enhancers were running rampant in professional baseball. Out of 571 ballots, Maddux received 555 votes, Glavine 525 and Thomas 478. My only question is which 16 voters did not cast a vote for Maddux? Where they too busy voting for Moses Alou and Hideo Nomo? (Each received six votes. I’m not joking about this.)

Without going into too much detail, here are some quick predictions on this Sunday’s Golden Globe Awards, where winners can miss their award because they’re stuck in the bathroom. Bring on Tina Fey and Amy Poehler.

Movies:

Best Motion Picture, Drama – “12 Years A Slave”

Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical – “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Best Actress, Drama – Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”

Best Actor, Drama – Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Amy Adams, “American Hustle”

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Oscar Isaac, “Inside Llewyn Davis”

Best Supporting Actress – Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”

Best Supporting Actor – Michael Fassbender, “12 Years A Slave”

Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”

Television:

Best Series, Drama – “Breaking Bad”

Best Series, Comedy or Musical – “Modern Family”

Best Actor, Drama – Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”

Best Actress, Drama – Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical – Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical – Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”

Best Supporting Actor – Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan”

Best Supporting Actress – Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”

Now that we’re on a roll, let’s make some picks on this weekend’s football matchups. Hopefully they’ll be as entertaining as last week’s games.

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8) over New Orleans Saints

Last week I bet against the Saints because the odds were stacked against them: dome team playing in cold weather, never winning a road playoff game, and a poor regular season road record. I was wrong and they ended up winning a close game against a sub-par Philly defense. This week they’re going back to where they were already trounced in Week 13 against a Seahawks defense that is number one against the pass as well as leading the league in PED suspensions. Their defense was made to slow down Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense. Throw in the twelfth man and a hostile environment and it doesn’t bode well for the Saints. I don’t think they overcome the odds this week.

NEW ENGLAND PARIOTS (-7) over Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck was impressive last week, showing that he can rally his teammates and make plays when it counts. And he’s going up against a severely banged up Patriots defense. As a Pats fan, the thought of Luck leading a drive in the fourth quarter trailing by three points terrifies me. But Bill Belichick will find a way to stifle Colts leading receiver and Luck’s favorite target T.Y Hilton. That’s just what he does. Plus the elements of heavy rain and wind are going to make the passing game difficult for both teams. I envision a lot of LeGarrette Blount, Steven Ridley, and Shane Vereen moving the ball against a lackluster Colts defense. Are the Colts going to turn to Trent Richardson, who averaged 2.9 yards per carry during the regular season and lost a fumble on his only hand off last week? Not likely. In the end this is Foxboro in January, where Belichick and Tom Brady are 11-3. This isn’t the same rivalry as it used to be, but the result will be the same. The Pats move on.

San Francisco 49ers (-1) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

When these two teams met in San Francisco in Week 10, the final score was 10-9. Not much of an offensive juggernaut. On Sunday you will probably see the same formula of both offenses struggling to move the ball against two strong defenses. Ultimately I have to give the advantage to the 49ers. They might be playing the best football out of any of the teams still alive, and they have more offensive weapons than Carolina. The 49ers win their second straight close game on a Phil Dawson field goal and spoil Cam Newton’s first playoff start.

San Diego Chargers (-9.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Don’t get me wrong. The Broncos win this game, but I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout like many Denver wins are. San Diego handed the Broncos their only home loss this year in Week 15, and Philip Rivers is 6-2 in his career at Mile High Stadium. Let’s also not forget about Denver’s loss in the divisional round last year, as well as Peyton Manning being one and done eight times in the playoffs. Both teams have the ability to move the football and put points on the board, and this has the makings of an entertaining and high scoring game. But Manning and the Broncos can’t afford to be the best team in the conference and be bounced out at home for the second straight season. Plus the Broncos have to win. How else are we going to have a Brady versus Manning AFC Championship?  

A Wide-Open Wild Card Weekend

We’ve reached the end of another NFL season. During the last seventeen weeks, we witnessed the Denver Broncos become the most proficient offense in league history and Peyton Manning set a new passing touchdown record. After missing the first two games of the season due to a suspension, wide receiver Josh Gordon became the first Cleveland Brown in NFL history to lead the league in receiving, with the likes of Brian Hoyer, Branden Weeden and Jason Campbell throwing him the football. In the AFC, four teams were still alive for the final playoff spot during the last week of the season, which came down to overtime for San Diego to beat Kansas City’s second squad. In the NFC, two divisions were decided by face offs in Week 17, with an eight win team making the playoffs. Leave it to the Dallas Cowboys to lose NFC East for the third straight year on the last game of the season to once again finish in mediocrity. And the reigning champion Baltimore Ravens won’t have the chance to defend their title.

If one thing still holds true, it’s that the NFL is so unpredictable and anything can happen. This season was evident of that. How can the Pittsburgh Steelers begin the season 0-4 and come within a KC missed field goal of making the playoffs? Or the Detroit Lions giving up on their coach and losing their last four games to lose control of the NFC North and miss the postseason? Three years ago the NFC West was the laughing stock of the NFL, sending a 7-9 division champion to the postseason. This season, three teams in that division won over ten games. How the tides can turn, and it what makes the NFL so great.

This year’s playoffs should be no different. The Seattle Seahawks are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl, but they showed they’re vulnerable at home in Week 16 against Arizona’s defense, and their offense has looked stagnant at times. It’s still going to be tough for any NFC team to win in Seattle, but overall the field is wide open. The same goes for the AFC. The title game will go through Denver, but Peyton Manning is one and done in the playoffs eight times, including last year’s loss at home to the eventual champion Baltimore Ravens. It all makes for some riveting drama. With all that being said, let’s make some picks on this weekend’s matchups.

(HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1) over Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs began the season like gangbusters, breaking out to a 9-0 record. Let’s not forget that most of those wins were against teams like Jacksonville, Oakland, Houston, Cleveland and Buffalo. When playing teams that finished with winning records, they were 1-5, including a home loss to the same Colts in Week 16. Colts QB Andrew Luck has thrown eight touchdowns and one interception in his last four games, while completing 66% of his passes. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has more playoff experience than Luck and has also been playing well as of late, but had one of his worst showings of the season in his last start in the Indy game. Throw in Andy Reid’s stellar history of poor play calling and game clock management in big games, and I’ll take the Colts at home.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) over New Orleans Saints

I’m picking a rookie head coach and second year Eagles QB Nick Foles in his first playoff start against Drew Brees and Sean Payton? I should have my head examined. Brees and Peyton have the experience, and Payton knows how to call a surprise on-side kick with the best of them. But this game isn’t in the Louisiana Superdome, where the Saints were 8-0 this season, compared to 3-5 on the road. They also have never won a road playoff game, and dome teams have a poor history of playing on the road in sub-freezing temperatures. On the other side Philly has won their last four home games and seven of their last eight overall. Can Foles rise above the pressure in his first playoff start? He finished the season with the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in NFL history, tossing 27 scores to two interceptions, showing that he can protect the football. If he avoids a shootout with Brees and uses NFL leading rusher LeSean McCoy to control the tempo of the game, the Eagles should move on.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7) over San Diego Chargers

Cincinnati is still coached by Marvin Lewis, who is 0-4 in the postseason. But the Bengals posted a perfect record at home this season and have one of the top-ranked defenses in the league. That doesn’t bode well for the Chargers, who barely squeaked into the playoffs with their overtime win against KC last week. They also couldn’t figure out Cincy at home in Week 13. The Bengals have averaged 42 points a game in their last five at home, with an average margin of victory of 24 points in those games. If Bengals QB Andy Dalton can avoid throwing interceptions and give Chargers QB Philip Rivers the chance to put some points on the board, Dalton and Lewis should win their first postseason game.

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers won their division winning only eight games. Obviously this isn’t the same team that struggled without QB Aaron Rodgers, who returned last week from a broken collar bone to lead Green Bay into the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is really good, and isn’t somebody I normally like to bet against, especially when the Packers are getting points at home. But the 49ers finished the season on a six game winning streak, including wins over two of the top defenses in the league in division rivals Seattle and Arizona. San Fran’s QB Colin Kaepernick has raised his game, throwing 10 touchdowns and only one interception over that span. Plus he always has a field day when playing the Packers. With the temperatures dropping into the negative numbers, the elements aren’t going to favor the passing game. Packers running back Eddie Lacy should have trouble against the 49ers stingy defense. In the end the 49ers rushing game between Kaepernick and running back Frank Gore will be too much for the Packers defense.