Betting on the Emmys

My father and I are in a NFL pool. Every week we make sixteen picks against the spread on Sunday’s games with a couple of over/under picks thrown in depending on how many teams are on a bye. We’ve been doing it for several years, and every year we seem to be getting worse. We base our pick on how a team played the week before. We lose. We base our pick on how many points a team averages scoring a game. We lose. We base our pick on a dome team with a lousy quarterback making a cross country trip to play a road game outdoors. We lose.

Why can it be so hard to pick NFL games? Damned if I know. I like to convince myself that I come up with a logical reason for each pick, but sometimes it doesn’t always pan out. So can this concept and reasoning be applied to other areas of entertainment and leisure besides sports? And can it be just as difficult? Let’s find out.

Along with a full day of football, this Sunday will also mark the 65^th Primetime Emmy Awards, where the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences will hand out its annual honors. So I though what better way to enjoy the Emmys than to look at the odds, make some picks, and see if I can choose some winners in some of the major categories. Hell it can’t be worse than trying to pick football.

(Odds figured by Bovada)

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad: 4/7

Maggie Smith, Downtown Abby: 2/1

Emilia Clark, Game of Thrones: 13/2

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men: 9/1

Morena Baccarin, Homeland: 14/1

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife: 14/1

If you want to take a chance, the best odds for your money are probably with Smith, who won the award last year. But Anna Gunn is going to begin a trend here. As Breaking Bad approaches its end, all of the actors are putting in top notch performances, and they’re all going to be recognized. Look for Gunn to take home the trophy.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad: 1/2

Mandy Patinkin, Homeland: 7/4

Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad: 12/1

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones: 14/1

Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire: 25/1

Jim Carter, Downtown Abby: 30/1

I’m a big fan of Dinklage and Patinkin and both their characters. If this was last year, I would have bet heavily and with confidence on Dinklage’s Tyrion Lannister. His performance in the ‘Blackwater’ episode alone is one for the time capsule. And I would have lost big time. Aaron Paul took the Emmy home as Jesse Pinkman, the meth cooking junkie with a conscience. As the odds on favorite, your money is safe on Paul to win back to back awards.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep: 1/3

Tina Fey, 30 Rock: 4/1

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation: 5/1

Laura Dern, Enlightened: 12/1

Lena Dunham, Girls: 20/1

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie: 50/1

Poor Edie Falco. If this was ten years ago and this nomination was for a drama series, I’d be all in. This year I’m going to roll the dice on Fey. Louis-Dreyfus is great as our Vice President Selina Meyer, but this is the last chance for Fey to be recognized as the quirky and endearing Liz Lemon. Fey’s performance throughout the series established its smart and original brand of comedy, and she should be rewarded for its brilliance.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Louis C.K., Louie: 4/7

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory: 2/1

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock: 9/2

Matt LeBlanc, Episodes: 25/1

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development: 25/1

Don Cheadle, House of Lies: 50/1

Who would have thought that Matt LeBlanc would be receiving acting accolades after his success on Friends? I guess playing yourself must be really hard to do. It’s also great to see Jason Bateman on this list in his return as Michael Bluth. But if I’m going to lay my chips down, it’s going to be on Jim Parsons to win his third Emmy. I could make the same argument for Alec Baldwin as I did for Tina Fey, but for some reason everybody loves Sheldon Cooper. This is the one category that I could also see long shot Don Cheadle sneaking away with the award.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland: 1/3

Kerry Washington, Scandal: 13/4

Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel: 15/2

Robin Wright, House of Cards: 12/1

Elizabeth Moss, Mad Men: 25/1

Michelle Dockery, Downtown Abby: 50/1

Connie Britton, Nashville: 50/1

If there’s one sure bet, it’s Claire Danes. Nobody brings obsessiveness to the extreme more than CIA agent Carrie Mathison, who is played perfectly by Danes. It’s not going to be a huge payout, but at least your money is safe. None of the other odds are even close.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad: 4/7

Damian Lewis, Homeland: 12/5

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards: 7/21

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom: 20/1

Jon Hamm, Mad Men: 25/1

Hugh Bonneville, Downtown Abbey: 66/1

I never thought the odds would be so stacked against Don Draper. But when you’re going up against a drug kingpin, more than likely you’re going to lose. Damien Lewis could bring a nice payout as the conflicted Nicholas Brody, but the praises for Breaking Bad are going to continue. Cranston has the chance to take home his fourth straight Emmy as his portrayal as chemistry teacher turned meth dealer Walter White. I see this is as much of a sure thing as Danes.

Best Comedy Series

Modern Family: 1/2

The Big Bang Theory: 7/1

Louie: 5/2

30 Rock: 8/1

Girls: 30/1

Veep: 25/1

Your money will be safe with Modern Family, which is going for its fourth straight Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series. But I might throw a side bet on 30 Rock. I have written in a previous post that 30 Rock was smart and original, and there are not many comedies of its quality. Similar to Fey, it should be recognized one last time.

Best Drama Series

Breaking Bad: 4/11

Homeland: 4/1

Game of Thrones: 9/1

House of Cards: 6/1

Downtown Abbey: 20/1

Mad Men: 40/1

It doesn't make sense to me that Mad Men has the worst odds here. These are all qualify shows, but these past two seasons of the AMC drama have shown some of its finest moments, and I would feel more confident with Mad Men winning the award over House of Cards and Downtown Abbey. With all of the twists and turns on Homeland, it could also come away with its second straight Emmy. But the night belongs to Breaking Bad. The final season has been nothing short of intense, sustaining its crown as the best drama on television until it unfortunately ends in a couple of weeks. All hail the king.