Breaking Down the Brackets

Oh, brackets. Every March you draw us into your tangled web with a sense of optimism and endless possibilities. Similar to the anticipation of spring after a long winter, you allow us to get our hopes up. And just like a late season snow storm, you let us down and frustrate us to no end when one of our Final Four picks goes down in the second round. It happens every year, and every year we keep coming back.

As we come upon one of the best sports weekends on the calendar, it’s evident that this college basketball season has been one of unparalleled parody, one where the reigning champs (Kentucky) didn’t even make it to the Big Dance. There has not been one dominant team as we enter the tournament, with five different teams occupying the number one spot in the rankings during the regular season. It has the makings for a wide open tournament, raising the level of excitement of an annual event where nothing is ever certain.

So as you begin to fill out your bracket, is there ever a sure thing or reliable strategy? If history can tell us anything, no there isn’t. I look at who’s playing well going into the tourney, and I’m more confident in teams with some quality wins during the season and that play in tougher conferences. Then again I tend to over think things. You have a better chance of seeing a reunion of the original lineup of Guns N’ Roses than filling out a perfect bracket, so at least have fun with it. And when in doubt, go with your gut. Your first instinct is usually the correct on.

So who will be cutting down the nets in Atlanta? I’m going with the popular pick of Rick Pitino and the Louisville Cardinals over Indiana in the championship game. But before I get ahead of myself, let’s break down each region. And one last bit of advice: watch out for those twelve seeds.

Midwest

Player to Watch: Doug McDermott, Creighton

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon

Most Anticipated Potential Matchup: Duke vs. Michigan State

Team with the Best Chance to Ruin Your Bracket: Memphis

If there’s one team that you have to scratch your head with their seeding, it’s Oregon.  The whole Pac-10 conference, including the champion Ducks, received no respect in this tournament. With that being said, I don’t see them moving on past the first round against Oklahoma State. One team to keep an eye on is Saint Louis, who plays solid defense and could give Louisville fits in the Sweet Sixteen. But Louisville’s defense is a little better. This is the Cardinals’ region to lose, who probably have the easiest path to the final four out of all the number one seeds. I’m always hesitant of betting against Michigan State and Tom Izzo, who has been to the Final Four six times. The Spartans will meet the Cardinals in the Elite Eight with a trip to Atlanta on the line, with Louisville coming out on top.

West

Player to Watch: Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss

Most Anticipated Potential Matchup: Ohio State vs. New Mexico

Team with the Best Chance to Ruin Your Bracket: Pittsburgh

Don’t be fooled by Gonzaga. Their two losses during the season came at the hands Illinois and Butler, both ranked teams at the time. The only other ranked team they played was Oklahoma State on New Year’s Eve, where they won by a single point. The rest of the season they beat up on a mediocre West Coast conference. The farthest they’ve reached in the tournament was the regional final in 1999, and they’ve never been to the Final Four. I don’t see it happening this year either. The Zags post some good defensive numbers, but so does Pittsburgh, who the Bulldogs should see in the second round. That’s as far as I think they are going to go. As for the rest of the region, Wisconsin is playing about as good as anybody in the country. As long as the Badgers don’t lose to Ole Miss in the first round, I see a rematch of the Big 10 title game with red hot Ohio State in the Elite Eight, with the Buckeyes moving on to Atlanta.

South

Player to Watch: Trey Burke, Michigan

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: UCLA vs. Minnesota

Most Anticipated Potential Matchup: Georgetown vs. Florida

Team with the Best Chance to Ruin Your Bracket: North Carolina

This is the most loaded region, with Kansas, Michigan, Florida, Georgetown, and tournament stunners from two years ago, VCU. Don’t sleep on North Carolina either, who can put points on the board and are 8-2 in their last ten games. They very well could bump out the top seeded Jayhawks in the second round. Michigan, Florida and Georgetown all have the makings for a run at the Final Four, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them do. But the Hoyas are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and play in a brutal Big East conference. They finished 13-2 down the stretch, with wins over Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette and Syracuse (twice). They should meet Florida in the Sweet Sixteen, and I think the winner of that game wins the region. I’m picking Georgetown to edge out the Gators to meet Michigan in the Elite Eight, with the Hoyas being victorious.

East

Player to Watch: Cody Zeller, Indiana

Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: UNLV vs. California

Most Anticipated Potential Matchup: Miami vs. Butler

Team with the Best Chance to Ruin Your Bracket: Illinois

Do the Butler Bulldogs have what it takes to make a run at their third National Championship game in four years? They would have to go through the likes of Marquette, Miami and Indiana to do so. Not an easy task. Similar to Louisville, I see this region as Indiana’s to lose, who spent half the regular season as the number one ranked team in the country.  They were the best team in a tough Big Ten conference. They will be tested against one of the biggest surprises of the year, the ACC Champion Miami Hurricanes. You would think I was referring to their football team. The Canes’ Jim Larranaga should be a lock for coach of the year, and I think they will make a good run in the tournament. Their Cinderella story will end in the Elite Eight against Indiana.