Breaking Down Wild-Card Weekend

If anything could be said for this NFL season, it was made of comebacks, rookie quarterbacks, and a couple of records that were almost broken. Houston’s J.J. Watt and San Francisco’s Aldon Smith almost broke Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record. Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson was nine yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. But the NFL does not deal in horseshoes and hand grenades, so almost doesn’t count.
 

What is certain though is that Peterson, along with Denver’s Peyton Manning, is a candidate for comeback player of the year as well as the league’s Most Valuable Player. Eleven months after tearing both his ACL and MCL in his left knee on Christmas Eve last year, Peterson put together a memorable season for the ages. He rushed for 2,097 yards and was tied for second in the league averaging six yards per carry. Between weeks seven and fourteen, he averaged 164 yards per game. And he was an average low second round pick in most fantasy drafts before the season started. Admit it; you were afraid to take a chance on him too.

The same can be said for Peyton Manning. The NFL’s poster boy returned from a career threatening neck injury to do what he does best; throw touchdowns and win football games. Returning to his old form, Manning finished third in the league with 37 touchdown passes and second with a 105.8 quarter back rating. The Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL right now, winning eleven games in a row to clinch the top spot in the AFC heading into the playoffs.

Which brings us to this weekend’s round of wild-card games. This will be the first time in league history that three rookie quarterbacks will start a playoff game in the same post-season. Washington’s Robert Griffin III, Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck and Seattle’s Russell Wilson have been playing like seasoned veterans in leading their teams to the playoffs.

But more importantly, can one of the teams playing this weekend reach the Super Bowl? Since 2006, a team playing in the first round has reached the Super Bowl every year except one, with five of those teams winning the championship. As for this year, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I see New England and San Francisco Super Bowl in a rematch from week fifteen, with the Pats this time coming out on top. Then again, picking football games can be as difficult as trying to solve the fiscal cliff. But for fun, let’s break down this weekend’s games anyway.

(Home team in CAPS)

HOUSTON TEXANS (-4.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Honestly, I’m the last person on the Texans’ bandwagon. Losing three out of their last four regular season games, including last week in Indianapolis that cost them a first round bye, does not increase my confidence in them. But the Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since 1990 and have never won a road playoff game in franchise history. Let’s not forget the 31-10 loss last year to the same Texans team with T.J. Yates as Houston’s starting quarterback. This year the Texans’ primary quarterback Matt Schaub will be starting for Houston. On the other side, Cincy’s QB Andy Dalton is a year more experienced, but he’ll have too much of J.J. Watt in his face. Cincy also has a strong front four that will have its work cut out for them in stopping Arian Foster. Ultimately I just don’t trust a Marvin Lewis coached Bengals team on the road in a loud dome. They don’t have the pieces to pull it off.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5) over Minnesota Vikings

Here’s a little advice for the Green Bay Packers: learn from last week’s loss in Minnesota, stack the box to contain Adrian Peterson and make Christian Ponder beat you. Repeat: Make Christian Ponder beat you. Playing at home on the Frozen Tundra should make the task a little easier. Also Aaron Rogers is pretty good, who threw for eleven touchdowns and one interception in the month of December. Peterson could still run wild, but I’ll take Rogers at home.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

I have two words for you: ChuckStrong. The Colts have been playing inspired football all season, while the Baltimore Ravens have lost four out of their last five games. Not only do I like the points in this game, but I see the Colts winning outright. Ray Lewis announcing his retirement after this season is not enough to trump ChuckStrong. This is my upset pick of the weekend, setting up a Colts vs. Peyton Manning match up in Denver.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS

For me this is definitely the most intriguing match up of the weekend. Two rookie play makers starting at quarterback against two stingy defenses, with both teams playing well down the stretch of the regular season to reach the playoffs. If RGIII wasn’t hobbling around on a bad knee, I might give the edge to the Redskins. But Seattle’s defense is one of the best, and no team is playing better right now. If any team can make a run to New Orleans that’s playing this weekend, it’s definitely the Seahawks.