And the 2015 Oscars Go To...

Award shows. In the scheme of things, what do they really mean? I've said before that the Oscars are all about good looking, famous people dressing up in fancy clothes to honor each other with trophies and accolades. As fans, we eat it up like turkey on Thanksgiving.

The Oscars, for the most part, are at least respectable. Although every year there are arguable snubs (Alfred Hitchcock, Selma) and the occasional head-scratching upset (Rocky, Shakespeare in Love, Crash), the Oscars are the template for the best of the best in cinema. Along with the Golden Globe awards, they dictate what films and performers that movie enthusiasts should focus on over a two-and-a-half month period, beginning with the announcement of the Globe nominations at the beginning of December. The same goes for the Emmys. This past year's show acknowledged some of the best television series and acting roles in recent memory.

The Grammy Awards? I've always viewed them more as a laughable circus act, but it's what we have to resort to for the field of music. The show glorifies itself more on the musical performances than the actual awards themselves (which makes complete sense if you're trying to fill a three hour program dedicated to music). For all of its credibility, the Grammys have the tendency of missing its mark. This was the same institution that recognized Jethro Tull's Crest of a Knave over Metallica's ...And Justice for All for Best Hard Rock/Metal Performance in 1989. This year in the same category, the award went to Tenacious D for their take of Ronnie James Dio’s “The Last in Line.” For those that might not know, Tenacious D is a two man acoustical band that can be found under the genre “Comedy Rock” with its closest contemporary being Flight of the Conchords. Not your typical metal band, especially when the other nominees in the category are Anthrax, Motorhead and Slipknot. Although the Grammys have provided us with many memorable moments, this year’s program made headlines for being one long snoozefest, with the exception of Kanye West doing typical asshole Kanye West things (honestly, do we really need any more reasons to dislike Kanye).

So will this year’s Oscars provide any glimpses of excitement or be a predictable bore that will make me want to flip over to The Walking Dead? With the exception of a couple of categories, many of the winners appear to be already set in stone, with not much anticipation of any major upsets. Like the majority of nominees in Oscar’s history, this year is front loaded with drama, with not much action or laughs to be found. Will Boyhood continue its award reign as the front-runner or will Birdman swoop in and pull off one of the night’s potential upsets? Let’s look at the major categories and find out (as always, my apologies to best sound mixing).

Best Supporting Actress:

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood

Laura Dern – Wild

Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game

Emma Stone – Birdman

Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Is it a pre-requisite that Meryl Streep has to be nominated in some acting category? Would the Academy just cancel the show if she wasn’t? As good as I’m sure her performance is, this is one of the categories that’s already a lock. Patricia Arquette has been sweeping the award ceremonies for her role as a single mother striving for a better life in Boyhood, and there’s no indication that there will be an upset. The first-time nominee will lead off as the evening’s first sure winner.

Best Supporting Actor:

Robert Duvall – The Judge

Ethan Hawke – Boyhood

Edward Norton – Birdman

Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher

J.K. Simmons – Whiplash

Should Duvall, Hawke, Norton and Ruffalo even bother showing up? Sorry fellas but you don’t stand a chance. Just like Arquette, J.K. Simmons has reigned in all of the accolades and is another sure thing as the merciless and demeaning music teacher in Whiplash. For a character actor that portrays a dead-on J. Jonah Jameson in Spiderman that can also sell insurance, it will be gratifying to see Simmons, another first-time nominee, take home the award.

Best Actress:

Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything

Julianne Moore – Still Alice

Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Similar to Arquette and Simmons, all signs point towards Moore for her role as a college professor that's been diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s. Her closest competition might be Pike, who morphs from sympathetic trophy wife to manipulative avenger in Gone Girl. As convincing and down-right frightening Pike is, this is Moore’s award to lose. Oscar tends to acknowledge performers that portray characters with physical disabilities or mental illness. Plus this is Moore’s fifth nomination, and she’s due to be recognized.

Best Actor:

Steve Carell – Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper – American Sniper

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton – Birdman

Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything

I genuinely like Michael Keaton. I mean how can you not? He's not on the top of most actor lists, but he's had a solid and steady career and has never done anything for you to turn against him. I first became a fan as a kid watching Keaton as a bumbling, stay-at-home dad in Mr. Mom. As an adult I can now appreciate this classic exchange:

After becoming “the ghost with the most” in Beetlejuice, he donned the bat suit to play the caped-crusader in Tim Burton’s adaptation of Batman. As a avid reader of the comic books at the time, it was a pretty big deal to me. It’s kind of ironic that he’s now nominated for his role in Birdman as a former popular super-hero actor trying to make a comeback as a theater performer. As a first-time nominee, I’m all on board for him to win. Unfortunately I don’t think he’s going to pull it off. This is the first award of the night that has come down to a two man race, and the edge goes to newcomer Eddie Redmayne and his portrayal of a young Stephen Hawking as he succumbs to ALS. Remember that Oscar is a fan of actors that play disabled characters, and Redmayne’s performance of Hawking as he physically deteriorates is intense and devastating. As satisfying it would be to see Keaton take the trophy, the award will go to Redmayne.

Best Director

Alejandro G. Iñarritu – Birdman

Richard Linklater – Boyhood

Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher

Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel

Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Linklater has been the consensus favorite throughout award season. His concept in Boyhood of following the same characters over a twelve-year period is an accomplishment that has never been achieved in film. He has made quality movies of the course of his career (beginning with Dazed and Confused, a personal favorite), and deserves to be recognized for his achievement. However this has the making of the 2014 Oscars, where Gravity and 12 Years a Slave split Best Director and Best Picture, respectively. The effects that Iñarritu incorporates in Birdman so that the entire film comes across as one long shot give the film its distinctive feature. Iñarritu won the Directors Guild of America award, which historically has been a big indicator of who will win the Oscar. The technical element of Birdman will win the award for Iñarritu.

Best Picture

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Where Linklater will lose out as Best Director, he’ll be rewarded with the top prize of the night. As much as Birdman stands out, it doesn’t reach some of the emotional depth that Boyhood does. Even though for almost three hours nothing really happens, it’s epic in its accomplishment. Average viewers can relate to the growth and struggles of a working-class family, which is the essence that Boyhood captures. Birdman has gained steam recently by taking home the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild awards, but Linklater has made a historical film that the Academy will acknowledge.